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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Are we done with 90s this year? Certainly seems possible for NYC at least. 

Would like to see a comparison of this year vs last

Seeing as Boston has only had 4 days of 90s when their average is 15, I'd say we are in a similar boat. Our first below average JJA in some time if I am not mistaken. 

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On track for only the 9th August at LGA with no 90° days.

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
Missing Count
1 2023 0 9
- 2008 0 0
- 1986 0 0
- 1982 0 0
- 1972 0 0
- 1967 0 0
- 1963 0 0
- 1950 0 0
- 1946 0 0
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On 8/22/2023 at 10:56 AM, bluewave said:

The blocking verified stronger than the forecasts from last week. We need to see more of this type of model bias during the winter. 

168 hr forecast

F7414405-CAF6-48A4-BEF3-91AF8F391696.thumb.png.f9515a1fc798f97c5f30de53bddc0664.png


verification

 

67F4CED8-6922-4BE2-A067-3A8B89E91CBC.thumb.png.9a2abd84700f48e7a4db3be97c657fb3.png

 

Further enhance by Hillary notice the west trough and upper low pumping the west side of the ridge sharper.  Seasonal trend has that ridge bounding between TX/OK/ Rockies and Kansas 

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Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 93 (1989)
NYC: 92 (1916)
LGA: 92 (1996) - rare heat


Lows:

EWR: 55 (1982)
NYC: 51 (1923)
LGA: 56 (1952)

Historical:

 

1724: An event is known as the "Great Gust of 1724" occurred on this day. Almost all tobacco and much of the corn crops were destroyed by this violent tropical storm, which struck the Chesapeake Bay. Intense floods of rain and a huge gust of wind were seen on the James River. Some homes were wrecked, and several vessels were driven ashore. The storm was likely followed by a second hurricane just five days later causing rain for many straight days that caused the Virginia floods of 1724.

1906 - Thunderstorms deluged Kansas City, MO, with six inches of rain during the early morning, including nearly three inches in thirty minutes. (The Kansas City Weather Almanac)

1921 - Denver, CO, was drenched with 2.20 inches of rain in one hour, a record for that location. (The Weather Channel)

 

1933: A hurricane made landfall near Nags Head, North Carolina and tracked up the Chesapeake Bay. The Chesapeake-Potomac hurricane moved over Norfolk, Virginia, and Washington, DC. A seven-foot tide flooded businesses in Norfolk, Virginia. Described in the American Meteorological Society's August 1933 weather review as "one of the most severe storms that have ever visited the Middle Atlantic Coast." 

1933 - The Chesapeake-Potomac hurricane moved over Norfolk VA and Washington D.C. A tide seven feet above normal flooded businesses in Norfolk, and damage in Maryland was estimated at seventeen million dollars. (David Ludlum)

1970 - Dry thunderstorms ignited more than one hundred fires in the Wenatchee and Okanogan National Forests of Washington State. Hot, dry, and windy weather spread the fires, a few of which burned out of control through the end of the month. More than 100,000 acres burned. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A cold front brought autumn-like weather to the Northern and Central Plains Region. Afternoon highs were in the 50s and 60s across parts of Colorado, Kansas and Nebraska that just two days earlier were in the 90s or above 100 degrees. Thunderstorms produced locally heavy rain in New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced hail an inch in diameter, wind gusts to 64 mph, and 2.62 inches of rain at Tucson AZ resulting in three million dollars damage. Cool weather prevailed in the northeastern U.S. Hartford CT reported a record low of 42 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced heavy rain with flash flooding in West Virginia. Pickens, WV, reported 4.80 inches of rain in 24 hours. Evening thunderstorms in Mississippi deluged Alta Woods with 4.25 inches of rain in less than an hour. Thunderstorms also produced heavy rain in southeastern Kentucky, and flooding was reported along Big Creek and along Stinking Creek. The Stinking Creek volunteer fire department reported water levels 12 to 14 feet above bankfull. Fort Worth TX hit the 100 degree mark for the first time all year. Strong winds ushering cool air into northwest Utah gusted to 70 mph, raising clouds of dust in the salt flats. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1992: While South Florida residents were preparing for Hurricane Andrew, folks in western Montana were dealing with early season snowfall. Some snowfall amounts include 8.3” in Great Falls, 6.2” in Helena, and 5.1” in Cut Bank. This snowfall is the first significant snowfall on record in western Montana in August.

 

 

2005: Hurricane Katrina formed from Tropical Depression Twelve over the southeastern Bahamas. Katrina would become the costliest ($81.2 billion) and one of the most deadly hurricanes (1,836 lives) in U.S. history.

 

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A prolonged stretch of cooler than normal readings will continue through at least the weekend. Showers and thundershowers are likely later tomorrow and tomorrow night.

In the long-range, it remains more likely than not that ridges will wax and wane over the central and southern U.S., producing more heat in areas that have seen a lot of it this summer. If that idea holds, the Northeast will likely only see some short-lived periods of warmer or much warmer than normal temperatures through at least the first week or two of September.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around August 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.17°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was -17.48 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.573 today.

On August 21 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.871 (RMM). The August 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.751 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.6° (1.5° below normal).

 

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