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3 hours ago, Roger Smith said:


My idea for the summer pattern in general is that it may be prone to severe heat waves in central states and the western interior, and that the east will alternate between near average and hot spells with a bit of a westerly rather than south-westerly flow bias which can mean a rather dry regime, but no doubt with a few interruptions. 

Between the super warm ocean and obviously dry land conditions I'm thinking that eastern Canada is going to have an outsized influence on the east coast pattern the next few months. How would that affect the wind patterns, more days with NE winds than usual? 

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't see reservoirs getting too low but aesthetically it's gonna look dry for sure especially if we keep dodging rain chances

A few around here are down 1-4 feet now with the big one in Westchester still bank full. 

48 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

Tons of new fires popping up, now in eastern Canada. A lot of places, arguably a large chunk of North America are experiencing drier than normal conditions, and places north of here are well above average with 90's well into Canada. Tons of fuel for fires to develop and keep going. Only places that have been wetter than normal are the extreme Southeast and just east of the Rockies. I don't think I've ever seen so many fires burning in eastern Canada, western yes, but eastern Canada is typically cooler and wetter in the spring. All we can hope for is some rain!


That won't stay up there for long, New England is pretty dry too. 

15 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

We got more ice out of that thunderstorm than we did all winter haha


That's hysterical. Not really but... 

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I recall a lot of forest fires in ON and QC in spring 1977. But it is unusual to have this many at any time of year, summer tends to be fairly moist across the boreal forest regions north of the lower lakes. 

Persistent high pressure over central to northern QC or north of Ontario quite unlikely past mid-June as the storm track almost always energizes across inland northern Canada in summer. So I would not expect this regime to persist, it may morph into a persistent high closer to New England and New York state if it doesn't collapse entirely. 

It has been anomalously warm in north-central Canada since April so I am thinking there won't be very frequent below normal outbreaks into the Midwest at any point, and if the Midwest runs very warm, hard to avoid at least a moderate positive anomaly in the inland northeast U.S. 

A few months in the past have seen much higher anomalies as far east as Toronto compared to NYC. Both July 1916 and 1921 were much warmer relative to normal in Toronto than in NYC. There's one place a ridge can set up, around MI-IN-KY-TN that spills heat into the lower lakes and OV but if persistent low pressure can form near 37N 72W then NYC can be alternating between subdued heat and cool, cloudy and sometimes wet intervals. (this was not the case in 2009 when a larger northeast flow extended well inland). 

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At the 'peak,' near 7:10pm.    Not as bad as it looks.    Sun was partially shinning all the while.      Some good thunder, no wind and a little rain:


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Under bright sunshine, temperatures soared into the 90s in parts of the region including New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia. Coastal areas were held into 70s and 80s.

Parts of the region also saw record high temperatures. Records included:

Allentown: 96° (tied record set in 1925)
Baltimore: 97° (old record: 96°, 1923)
Binghamton: 91° (old record: 88°, 1978) ***Earliest 90° and 91° on record***
Buffalo: 91° (old record: 87°, 1919)
Hartford: 94° (old record: 91°, 1961)
Mount Pocono: 88° (old record: 87°, 1937)
Poughkeepsie: 95° (old record: 90°, 1934, 1944 and 2007)
Reading: 96° (old record: 95°, 1925)
Scranton: 95° (old record: 94°, 1919) ***Earliest 95° on record***
Sterling, VA: 93° (old record: 91°, 1978, 2000 and 2009)
Syracuse: 90° (tied record set in 2014)
Watertown, NY: 89° (old record: 87°, 1970)
Westfield, MA: 93° (old record: 90°, 2000)
Worcester: 89° (tied record set in 1892 and tied in 1895 and 1920)

Andover and Soverville in New Jersey both topped out at 97°.

The heat will be swept away as a trough develops leading to a return of sustained cooler than normal conditions. Some of the models show a fairly impressive cold shot for early June to start the weekend. As a result, Saturday could see temperatures remain in the 60s in New York City and 50s in Boston.

The latest ECMWF weeklies suggest that sustained warmer than normal conditions could develop during or after the second week of June.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around May 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -17.93 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.445 today.

On May 31 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.258 (RMM). The May 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.113 (RMM).


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7 hours ago, Allsnow said:

And it weakened 

I was at the Mets game tonight. Got home a little while ago and the ground still is very dry, so we must've gotten almost nothing here. Frustrating.

At Citi Field the game was delayed by 90 minutes but the storm just barely missed. A nice lightning show just slightly off in the distance but just very light rain. I did see a nice rainbow when the light rain was coming to an end. 

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2 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

I was at the Mets game tonight. Got home a little while ago and the ground still is very dry, so we must've gotten almost nothing here. Frustrating.

At Citi Field the game was delayed by 90 minutes but the storm just barely missed. A nice lightning show just slightly off in the distance but just very light rain. I did see a nice rainbow when the light rain was coming to an end. 

I was telling my friend that it’ll skirt citi the brunt of it came through Brooklyn 

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11 hours ago, Picard said:

Someone in N-NJ might've hit 100 degrees, legit, if the storms hadn't been hovering around.

I couldn't buy much out of them - a few drops, some brief wind, and a rumble of thunder.  They went all around me or fizzled out before reaching here.

My weather station hit 100.2 in Branchburg 

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The next 8 days are averaging    66degs.(57/74) or -4.

Reached 80 here yesterday at 6pm.

Today:    64-71, wind e., p. cloudy, 52 tomorrow AM.

68*(81%RH) here at 7am{was 67 at 6am}.      70* at 8am.      71* at 9am.      73* at 11am.      71* at Noon.     69* at 3pm.    62* at 6pm.

Near peak T's yesterday:


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69/61 ENE wind.  Clouds pushing in and highs kind of capped where they are.  Some mist/drizzle possible.  Clearing on Sun (6/4) and warmer into the 70s, have to see if clouds are stubborn and linger a bit, keeping it cooler.  Overall trough into the Northeast / Mid Atlantic the next 5 - 7 days.  As flow comes around to the SW we will have a warm day (near normal) sprinkled in Mon (6/5) but temps a bit below normal overall and despite an anomalous trough and potential cut / ULL guidance has limited precip chances.  We'll have to see if that increses Wed/Thu (6/8). 

Trough lifts a bit next weekend and it looks to head back towards normal.  We'll see if there is a day of warmer / hotter around the 10/11th.

By mid month heights look to push ridging east and we'll see if the persistent weakness into the NE and S- Canada creates more onshore flow.



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EWR: 97 (1943)
NYC: 95 (1895)
LGA: 93 (1943)



EWR: 45 (1946)
NYC: 45 (1929)
LGA: 49 (1946)




1860: Iowa's infamous Camanche Tornado, likely an F5 storm, kills 92 and injures 200. Every home and business were destroyed. It was one of the most damaging families of tornadoes ever to strike the US and resulted in more farm fatalities than any other tornado except for the Tri-State tornado.

1921 - A cloudburst near Pikes Peak CO killed 120 people. Pueblo CO was flooded by a twenty-five foot crest of the Arkansas River, killing 70 persons. Fourteen inches of rain was reported at Boggs Flat, where a hard surface road through nearly level country was washed out to a depth of seven feet. (The Weather Channel)

1959 - Thunderstorms in northwestern Kansas produced up to eighteen inches of hail near Salden during the early evening. Crops were completely destroyed, and total damage from the storm was about half a million dollars. Hail fell for a record eighty-five minutes. The temperature dropped from near 80 degrees prior to the storm to 38 degrees at the height of the storm. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Six days of flooding in South Texas culminated with five to six inch rains from Bexar County to Bandera County, and five to nine inches rains in Gonzalez and Wilson Counties. Total crop damage was estimated at 500 million dollars. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Early morning thunderstorms in southern Texas produced wind gusts to 86 mph at Port Isabel, and wind gusts to 83 mph at South Padre Island. Unseasonably hot weather prevailed from the Southern Plateau Region to the Northern High Plains. Fourteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing over the Southern Plains Region during the afternoon hours produced severe weather into the night. Thunderstorms spawned eleven tornadoes, and there were 169 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 80 mph at Newcastle, OK, and Wilson, OK. Softball size hail was reported at Monahans, Childress and Groesbeck TX. Monahans TX reported six million dollars damage. Five inches of rain deluged Geronimo OK. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)


1993: Early morning severe thunderstorms dumped huge hailstones across northern Oklahoma. Hail, up to 6 inches in diameter in Enid, went through roofs of homes, damaged three jets at Vance Air Force Base, and did $500,000 in damage at a car dealership. Winds gusts reached 70 mph at Vance Air Force Base as well. Hail damage to the wheat crop was estimated at 70 million dollars. 


1997: It was a chilly day in the East. The high temperature at Philadelphia International Airport was only 59 degrees, tying a record-low maximum for the date set back in 1881. The temperature at Middletown, Pennsylvania rose to 58 degrees, breaking the record-low maximum for the date of 59 degrees set back in 1915. Washington, DC only reached 58 degrees, breaking the old record-low maximum of 59 set back in 1915. Central Park in New York City only reached 61 degrees.

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