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Just now, Allsnow said:

You absolutely nailed this event for your area 

More than I thought. I was hoping at least some activity could survive east of the Hudson. There’s been nothing but some random shower clusters and Sunday with a few storms that fired on the sea breeze front. 

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19 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

More than I thought. I was hoping at least some activity could survive east of the Hudson. There’s been nothing but some random shower clusters and Sunday with a few storms that fired on the sea breeze front. 

My fear is Mama Nature will figure out how to make it rain this weekend when I’m at the beach house! 

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52 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Wow at the 5” totals. I’m sitting at .05”. Has to be one of the greatest cutoff events for our area. With so Many days and so many chances and every single one a fail on the immediate south shore. I don’t think Jones beach has even had .001”

The next drought monitor and probably few to come will show a crazy gradient between moderate to possible severe drought here and no drought west of I-95. 

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An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through the remainder of June.

Unsettled weather will likely continue through tomorrow. The temperature will approach seasonable levels tomorrow before cooling slightly. It will be humid with scattered showers and thundershowers tomorrow, some of which could be heavy.

Parts of Texas remain in the midst of an extreme heat event. High temperatures included:

Austin: 105°
Brownsville: 99°
Corpus Christi: 101° (tied record set in 1980 and tied in 2012) ***record 6th 100° June day***
Cotulla: 113° (old record: 109°, 1902)
Del Rio: 110° (old record: 108°, 1980) ***10th consecutive record high***
Houston: 99°
Junction: 106° (tied record set in 2012)
Laredo: 110° (old record: 109°, 1980 and 1994)
McAllen: 105°
San Angelo: 109° (tied record set in 1994)
San Antonio: 104°
Victoria: 99°
Zapata: 109° (tied record set in 1980)

At present, there is little indication that this heat will move into the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around June 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer.

The SOI was +10.89 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.888 today.

On June 25 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.508 (RMM). The June 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.413 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.1° (1.7° below normal).

 

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12 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Ha line gone

Yup, it hit the force field at NYC and, boom, gone. Pretty amazing to watch day after day. We need ocean temps to warm past 70. Kind like why socal never sees rain in the summer, water temps in the. 50s/60s are just convection destroyers. that’s why you see front reinvigorate after they get to the Gulf Stream. This has happened the last three days

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Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yup, it hit the force field at NYC and, boom, gone. Pretty amazing to watch day after day. We need ocean temps to warm past 70. Kind like why socal never sees rain in the summer, water temps in the. 50s/60s are just convection destroyers. that’s why you see fronts reinvigorate after they get to the Gulf Stream. This has happened the last three days

 

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Next potential of 90+ temperatures in NYC delayed to July 6th-9th and may actually get delayed until even later. Onshore winds, marine layers, and showers/storms in the area (not necessarily rain where you live) will keep most of us from getting there for a while yet.

WX/PT

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47 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

SE mass, getting absolutely crushed this morning. Takes some validity away from my cool water destroys convection theory. So there is more to the story as to why western LI (mainly south shore) has completely struck out. We’ll see what happens later today…. Maybe we finally score…

There’s a frontal boundary/wave that’s helping to organize convection. It fired up in time for them but of course missed us (not the first time in the last few days). We can still get heavy rain/storms when we have a front or system to organize convection especially elevated convection. 

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

SE mass, getting absolutely crushed this morning. Takes some validity away from my cool water destroys convection theory. So there is more to the story as to why western LI (mainly south shore) has completely struck out. We’ll see what happens later today…. Maybe we finally score…

Water temps are above normal in that region. 

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The last 3 days of June are averaging    76degs.(67/86) or +1.

Month to date is   69.5[-2.1].      June should end at   70.2[-1.6].

Reached 80 here yesterday at 5 pm.

Today:   76-81, wind w., cloudy, Rain after 3pm,  66 tomorrow AM.

69*(93%RH) here at 7am{was 68 earlier}.       76* at Noon.

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11 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Wow at the 5” totals. I’m sitting at .05”. Has to be one of the greatest cutoff events for our area. With so Many days and so many chances and every single one a fail on the immediate south shore. I don’t think Jones beach has even had .001”

Reminds me of 2018. I remember the complaints from west of the city about it being too wet and cloudy that summer, not the case east of the city.

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8 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Next potential of 90+ temperatures in NYC delayed to July 6th-9th and may actually get delayed until even later. Onshore winds, marine layers, and showers/storms in the area (not necessarily rain where you live) will keep most of us from getting there for a while yet.

WX/PT

I’m pretty invested at this point in seeing if we can actually score a cooler than normal summer (relatively speaking). I would have to think an eventual flip to our typical summer inferno is coming by mid July and is more likely than the alternative, but still I’m finding this pretty interesting. Especially with so much heat to our southwest. 

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71 / 67 SW wind.  Partly cloudy with some low clouds and fog around.  A bit drier with isolated storms and showers today and widely scattered and isolated later Thu (6/29) and Fri (6/30).  Smoke may spoil the sunnier day Thu but Friday looks like the nicest day since last Mon (6/19).  

 

Holiday weekend warm, humid and scattered storms Low / mid 80s perhaps upper 80s where/when its most sunny for length.   storms focus on sun pm and mon pm.  Fourth of July looks to be much like today widely scattered storms perhaps some lingering morning sun.  Look to continue warm, humid and storms chances through the middle of the holiday week.

Beyond there - Western Atlantic Ridge positions expanded west and this will be key in drying and heating up in the 7/9 and beyond or continued hung up boundary.  Hazy, Warm , Humid for now.  

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

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