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May 2023


Brian5671
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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Another ugly holiday weekend?

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_eus_fh162-186.thumb.gif.63b6e2484afdc067c1e761601dda6ffb.gif

GFS much less (ugly) but it's Memorial Day and the uglier solution is prone to prevailing. :-) 

We'll see.  Euro had the cut off down in the southeast a few days back but had been persistent there would be something undercutting the ridge.   Looks like trough into the PNW/WC eyond Memorial Day with flatter flow and some ridging pishing east once the cut off / ULL is sorted out.

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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 96 (1996) - cooler summer thereafter
NYC: 93 (1996)
LGA: 93 (1996)

Lows:

EWR: 42  (2002) warmer summer thereafter
NYC: 40 (1907)
LGA: 45 (2002)

Historical:

1860 - A swarm of tornadoes occurred in the Ohio Valley. Tornadoes struck the cities of Louisville, KY, Cincinnati, OH, Chillicothe, OH, and Marietta, OH, causing a million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)
 

1881: Clara Barton and a circle of close friends found the American Red Cross.

1895 - The temperature at Norwalk, OH, dipped to 19 degrees to set a state record for the month of May. (The Weather Channel)

 

1949: A violent tornado crossed the Mississippi River from the St. Louis area into Wood River, then to Roxanna. This tornado damaged or destroyed 300 homes in these two towns, killing five people. Four people died in a destroyed restaurant in Palestine, Illinois; one body was recovered from a tree. A tornado causing estimated F4 damage killed five people and injured 55 in St. Louis and St. Charles counties in Missouri and Madison County in Illinois. This tornado was part of an outbreak that produced four different tornadoes and was responsible for five deaths and 57 injuries.

1896 - The mercury soared to 124 degrees at Salton, CA, to establish a U.S. record for May. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1980 - The temperature at Williston ND reached 102 degrees to set a record for May, and the next day the mercury hit 106 degrees. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Severe thunderstorms, developing along a sharp cold front crossing the central U.S., produced 60 mph winds and golf ball size hail at Sedalia, MO, and drenched Hagerstown, IN, with six inches of rain in one hour. Temperatures soared into the 90s ahead of the cold front. Paducah, KY, hit 94 degrees for the second day in a row. Light snow blanketed Montana, with three inches reported at Butte. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Severe thunderstorms swept across southern Louisiana during the morning hours spawning six tornadoes, and producing wind gusts to 88 mph at Jennings. Thunderstorms also produced five inches of rain in two hours at Lake Charles, causing local flooding. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms moving southeastward across the Central Plains Region into Oklahoma and Arkansas produced severe weather through the day and night. Thunderstorms spawned just four tornadoes, but there were 243 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Baseball size hail was reported at Augusta, KS, and thunderstorm winds gusted to 98 mph at Johnson, KS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather across the southeastern U.S. for the second day in a row. Severe thunderstorms spawned five tornadoes, including one which injured a person at Richmond KY. There were eighty-seven reports of large hail or damaging winds, with hail three inches in diameter reported at Austin TX. Thunderstorms produced up to five inches of rain in Macon County GA, and heavy rains left nearly eight feet of water over roads near Stepstone KY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2001: Golfers participating in a golf tournament at the Majestic Golf Course in Hartland, Michigan received an urgent message on the G.P.S. on their carts. The message, relayed from the clubhouse, was that a tornado was bearing down on the course. Most of the golfers made it to safety in the clubhouse, although some had to take shelter on the course. Only one golfer suffered a minor injury. The F2 tornado damaged 70 cars in the parking lot along with numerous golf carts and a pontoon boat.

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Had .48" rainfall here.  Double what I was expecting.  I'll take it.

Once to the Delaware River amounts dropped off to near nothing.  The wetter models over NJ were very overdone and the drier models were underdone.  Long Island into SNE did the best which is what nearly all the guidance had. 

 

 

 

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This leads to low pressure and offshore moisture
being drawn in from the SE and E at some point during the
holiday weekend from the ECMWF, and a bit later out in time from
the CMC GEM. It may work out that this offshore moisture does
not get tapped, depending on how the upper level low forms and
manifest itself. In the meantime strayed form consensus guidance
a bit and added more cloud cover and added slight chance PoPs
for the start of the weekend.
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8 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Can bet on it.  We'll see if the heat follows this mess.

Memorial day is like Thanksgining when it weather. A cool rainy Memorial Day doesn't mean a cool summer..Like a warm Thanksgiving doesn't mean a warm winter. We have had our share of misrable Memorial Days in the past. It's not Summer yet.

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2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

GFS much less (ugly) but it's Memorial Day and the uglier solution is prone to prevailing. :-) 

We'll see.  Euro had the cut off down in the southeast a few days back but had been persistent there would be something undercutting the ridge.   Looks like trough into the PNW/WC eyond Memorial Day with flatter flow and some ridging pishing east once the cut off / ULL is sorted out.

GFS & GEFS trending uglier. 

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Tomorrow will be fair and mild with readings reaching the lower and middle 70s. After mid-week, cooler air will overspread the region.

Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. With the guidance now showing a late week cool shot, the probability of a somewhat cooler than normal May has increased.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around May 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -25.87 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.162 today.

On May 19 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.853 (RMM). The May 18-adjusted amplitude was 2.018 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.0° (0.2° below normal).

 

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The  next 8 days are averaging    65degs.(55/75) or -2.

Month to date is      61.7[-0.1].      Should be     62.6[-0.6] by the 30th.

Reached 73 here yesterday at 6:30pm.

Today:   71-75, wind e., variable clouds, 57 tomorrow AM.

62*(70%RH) here at 7am{was 61 at 6am}.      64* at 8am.      68* at 10am.      70* at 11am.       72* at Noon.      Down to 68* at 1pm.        69* most of the PM.

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