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May 2023


Brian5671
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3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

0.58" here. Rain is coming to an end now. HRRR says the rain for the rest of the day will be mostly NYC and east, and radar looks that way too. The models that had big rain totals well into NJ are going to be wrong, but at least this wasn't a bust. It was enough to give the good watering that we desperately needed. 

Yeah can't complain. Some places got under a tenth of an inch 

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0.79 in the bucket.  Rain winding down and pressing east.  Some showers as the front passes through later likely.  E of GSP and points into the city and LI/CT getting the heavier totals.

 

thru 3PM

JFK: 1.06

New Brnswk:  0.77
LGA: 0.47
TEB: 0.39
NYC: 0.35

 

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5 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

It's been raining good for a while now, up to .37" and steady rain for now, more than I expected up here honestly. 

Just some light rain and mist here now.  Did have a period of moderate rain a while ago that got me to .28".    Radar says anything else will come from the front later.  Looks like that will move through rather quickly but additional showers or a period of rain likely.  I reached where I expected to be so anything else is gravy on the biscuit.

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43 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Received zip out here in eastern PA.  Looks like the cutoff was about west central NJ.  Some of the Mesos overdid the western extent of the event yesterday for my area before correcting east overnight.

Up to .54, that's a win here, I had heavily bet the under on Uptons rainfall map this morning and crashed and burned. 

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Some additional rain and showers are likely overnight before the clouds yield to sunshine and warmer readings tomorrow.

Through 8 pm, rainfall totals included:

Boston: 0.61"
Bridgeport: 2.26" (old record: 1.60", 1973)
Hartford: 1.64" (old record: 1.25", 1969)
Islip: 1.53" (old record: 1.47", 1972)
New Haven: 1.67"
New York City-Central Park: 0.77"
New York City-JFK Airport: 1.65" (old record: 1.46", 1972)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 1.26"
Providence: 1.21"
White Plains: 1.48"
Worcester: 1.04" (old record: 1.03", 1892)

Temperatures will likely remain near or somewhat above normal through midweek before cooler air moves in for a time. Some of the guidance suggests that temperatures could return to the 80s to close the month.

Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around May 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -11.32 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.689 today.

On May 18 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.017 (RMM). The May 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.804 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.2° (normal).

 

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The next 8 days are averaging   64degs.(54/74) or -2.

Month to date is    61.7[-0.1].      Should be 62.4[-0.7] by the 29th.

Reached 65 here yesterday at 11am.

Today:   70-74, wind w. to nw., p. cloudy to p. sunny, 61 tomorrow AM.

56*(78%RH) here at 7am.     59* at 9am.      63* at 11am.     64* at Noon.      70* at 3pm.       71* at 4pm.       Reached 73* at 6pm.      68* at9pm.

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0.95 in the bucket.  Clearing out now for a nice day upper 70s.  Overall dry and normal stretch coming up the next 5 days. Highs generally near 70 or low 70s.  Today and Wed (5/24) warmest day of the next five.   

 

Models had been hinting for a while the ridge builds east but cuts of Memorial day weekend.  The last few runs show ULL over the Northeast steering a low through the area Sat (5/27).  We'll see how it evolves - looking like southerly / onshore flow and if the low is steered as the Euro shows could be 24-36 hour ugly Fri-Sat.  

 

Beyond there, ridging pushes through and warmth builds down and into the area.

 

vis_nj_anim.gif

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