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    Gonzalez Brittany
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    Gonzalez Brittany

May 2023


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Readings will continue to warm during the weekend, but a significant rainfall is likely across much of the region tomorrow into Sunday. The region will likely see a general 1"-2" of rain with locally higher amounts. A stripe of 2"-4" of rain is possible across parts of New England.

It should be noted that both the operational ECMWF and its ensemble members show very little rain for the New York City area. However, at this range, the HREF often has a better handle, though it could be somewhat overdone.

Some of the guidance suggests that temperatures could return to the 80s to close the month.

Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. Nevertheless, the guidance has persistently suggested that the month will end with a somewhat warmer than normal average.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around May 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -9.48 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.585 today.

On May 17 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.458 (RMM). The May 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.765 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 53% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.3° (0.1° above normal).


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A little concerning that RGEM gives us almost nothing here after the Euro also gave us nothing. Enough models showing heavy rain tomorrow that I decided to not water the vegetable garden today. Hopefully I won't be going outside to water tomorrow afternoon while cursing out Mother Nature...

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The next 8 days are averaging    64degs.(56/72) or -2.

Month to date is    61.7[+0.1].        Should be    62.4[-0.5] by the 28th.

Reached 66 here yesterday at 6pm.

Today:   60-64, wind ne., cloudy-Rain***>Noon-9pm., 57 tomorrow AM.

61* at 7am{was 57 at midnight}.     63* at 8am.     65* at 10am.

***EURO   1.1",      GFS   0.2",     CMC    0.8",     ICON   0.5",     NAM    0.5",    SREF   0.8".


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60/59 with some showers in a line spread across moving NNW.  Expecting .50 - 1.00 today with much more in eastern sections.  Back to the overall dry stretch with normal temperatures tomorrow. Sun (5/21) back to the 80s n the warmer spots and near 80 elsewhere.  Those that get some meaningful rain are the winners in what looks dry again for the next 7 days.    The week looking mainly and near normal, next shot at 80 is Wed (5/24). 

Ridge does build east by Memorial day weekend but centers near KS and see ULL cut off and lots of onshore / southerly flow with heat going up north (similar to past years). At this time looks dry and the Euro keep the main ut off down south and keeps us near normal for Memorial Day weekend.  Have been seeing hints of this for many days on guidance. 

Beyond there to close the month and open next month - heat looks to push down into the area



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EWR: 98 (1962)
NYC: 99 (1962) almost made the sole century mark recording in May
LGA: 96 (2016)


EWR: 39 (2002) - the heat was on not too far or long thereafter this 4 day cold stretch
NYC: 38 (1976)
LGA: 43 (1976)



1780 - The infamous "dark day" in New England tradition. At noon it was nearly as dark as night. Chickens went to roost, and many persons were fearful of divine wrath. The phenomena was caused by forest fires to the west of New England. (David Ludlum)


1915: A spring storm came to an end after producing widespread snow. Total snowfall from the storm included: 17.6 inches in Scottsbluff, Nebraska, 8 inches at Cheyenne, Wyoming, 7 inches at Chadron and 3.9 inches in North Platte, Nebraska.

1955 - Lake Maloya NM received 11.28 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1975 - Thunderstorms produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 110 mph in Minnesota, between Fridley and Hugo. Fifty persons were injured. The hail and high winds destroyed fifty mobile homes, and a dozen aircraft, and also destroyed a third of the Brighton Elementary School. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorms in Texas produced thirteen inches of rain northwest of Lavernia. The heavy rain, along with golf ball size hail, destroyed eighty percent of the crops in the area, while high winds toppled trees. Golf ball size hail was also reported south of Dallas and around San Antonio. Up to eight inches of rain drenched Guadelupe County. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Severe thunderstorms in southwest Texas produced hail as large as tennis balls around Midland, with the hail accumulating up to a foot deep. Showers and thunderstorms in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region produced 3.5 inches of rain near Schuylkill PA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front spawned ten tornadoes from Illinois to Tennessee during the afternoon and night. Snow, wind and cold prevailed in the Northern Plateau Region and the Northern Rockies. Dixie, ID, was blanketed with nine inches of snow, winds gusted to 87 mph at Choteau MT, and the temperature at Crater Lake, OR, dipped to 11 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Thunderstorms deluged Hot Springs AR with thirteen inches of rain in nine hours resulting in a devastating flood. Two waves of water, four to six feet deep, swept down Central Avenue flooding stores and the famous bathhouses on Bathhouse Row. Water released from Lake Hamilton devastated the area between it and Remmel Dam. The 500 foot Carpenter Dam Bridge across Lake Catherine was completely washed away, as were cabins and mobile homes near the lake, many of which flowed right over the top of Remmel Dam. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

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36 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Hrrr east euro west ...still don't know htf much to expect 

Hoping for half inch 

NAM and 3km NAM shifted east on the 6z runs too. We'll see what the 12z runs show shortly, but I think that it's looking more and more likely that the major rainfall amounts will be on Long Island.

At least the models have some rain for our area and on radar you can see some rain coming up from the south that's likely going to hit us. I'm thinking a quarter to half inch, but maybe we can get a bit more if we get lucky with a downpour. Like I said yesterday, just give me enough to give the garden a decent watering. It has been so long since we've gotten any rain. 

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