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May 2023


Brian5671
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April ended at     57.6[+3.9], 2nd. Place 

The first 8 days of May are averaging    56degs.(49/63) or -4.

Reached 59 here yesterday.

Today:     58-62, wind w.-breezy, p. sunny to cloudy, 49 tomorrow AM-rain.

50*(80%RH) here at 7am.      51* at 8am.      58* at Noon.       62* at 4pm.     Reached 65* at 6pm.      61* at 7pm.      57* at 9pm.

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47 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I love how Brooklyn and NJ all have 6+ inches, but central park barely has 2 inches. Central Park is a joke.

Good afternoon TriPol. Ref NWS/NOAA for CPK; 3 day total was 5.20 inches. Stay well, as always ..,,,

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6 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Caught up quite a few pages today going back to the April thread; seems the forecast for a cool May until the last 1-2 weeks has given way to a warmer forecast? What changed? Just curious. 

It takes a lot for us to see a cool month. We'd need the omega block or any extreme block to last most of the month. 

We've also seen a big swing where the west is cool & we're very warm since 2015. Parts of CA have seen top 5 record cold months. 

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May has gotten off to an unseasonably cool start after a rainy end to an exceptionally warm April. Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. Whether that will be the case this year remains to be seen.

The cool pattern will continue through the opening week of May. Afterward, temperatures will trend toward normal and above normal during the second week of May. The duration and magnitude of this warm period could determine the overall monthly temperature anomaly.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around April 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.13°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was +12.58 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.417 today.

On April 29 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.328 (RMM). The April 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.393 (RMM).

 

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10 hours ago, CIK62 said:

April ended at     57.6[+3.9], 2nd. Place 

The first 8 days of May are averaging    56degs.(49/63) or -4.

Reached 59 here yesterday.

Today:     58-62, wind w.-breezy, p. sunny to cloudy, 49 tomorrow AM-rain.

50*(80%RH) here at 7am.      51* at 8am.      58* at Noon.       62* at 4pm.     Reached 65* at 6pm.      61* at 7pm.      57* at 9pm.

3.9 is enough for second??!!

 

Seems like it would take more!

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The next 8 days are averaging     58degs.(51/66) or -2.

Reached 65* here yesterday at 6pm.

Today:     55-58, wind w., m. cloudy, drizzle, 46 tomorrow AM.

50*(75%RH) here at 7am, showers.     48* at 8am.      53* at Noon.       56* at 1pm.      Reached 61* at 6pm.      54* at 8pm.

Decent run of AN coming up.     Next change at mid-month:

1683007200-PvtN0KxfLGI.png

 

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58 minutes ago, lee59 said:

The rest of this work week looks to have daytime temperatures some 10 degrees below normal. Only about 3 months to late. Currently 48 and light rain here, ugly.

Defining feature of our last two crap Nina “winters” into springs. Essentially Fall lasts 7 months. 

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10 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

3.9 is enough for second??!!

 

Seems like it would take more!

The 30 year means keep going up every 10 years so it takes a smaller departure to finish near the top.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/us-climate-normals/#dataset=normals-monthly&timeframe=30&location=NY&station=USW00094728

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/lcd/lcd.html;jsessionid=ED181C50757CEAA76F64228C9949C424?_page=0&state=NY&_target1=Next+>

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Apr
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Departure
1 2010 57.9 +5.4
2 2023 57.6 +3.9
3 2017 57.2 +4.2
4 1941 56.8 +6.7
5 2002 56.1 +3.6
- 1981 56.1 +4.1
- 1921 56.1 +6.1
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