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May 2023


Brian5671
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10 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I'm starting to consider the real possibility that the NYC Metro Region could experience a summer of near to even somewhat below normal temperatures. There's no Bermuda HP to speak of and really no signs of one. And the developing El Nino is likely to keep the south energized with upper lows and moisture with hybrid low pressure systems over the western Atlantic sometimes affecting the eastern seaboard. Ridging over the central U. S. also a factor..

WX/PT

Nino summers can be cooler around here.   

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Tomorrow will be partly cloudy and warm ahead of a push of cooler air. Some widely scattered showers are possible. Afterward, cooler air will overspread the region. Readings will likely remain below normal through the start of the weekend.

Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. With the guidance now showing a late week cool shot, the probability of a somewhat cooler than normal May has continued to increase.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around May 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -61.80 today. That is the lowest figure since the SOI plunged to -80.41 on February 5, 2010.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.712 today.

On May 21 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.267 (RMM). The May 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.495 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.0° (0.2° below normal).

 

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The last 8 days of May are averaging    68degs.(58/79) or +1.

Month to date is   61.9[-0.2].       May should end at    63.4[+0.2].

Reached 68 here yesterday at 7pm 

Today:   66-71, variable wind, increasing clouds, drizzle? after 8pm, 50 tomorrow AM.

57*(57%RH) here at 7am{was 56* at 6am}.     60* at 8am.    64* at Noon.      68* at 2pm.       67* at 3pm.      Reached 69* at 5:30pm.

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9 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

But today's guidance was considerably warmer for later next week--mid-upper 80s outside chance of a 90 day. We'll see. I'm still not gung-ho for heat yet.

WX/PT

Eastern trough on ensembles to start June. So any sustained heat/heat waves will have to wait. 

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Down to 42 here in the sticks.

The wildfire haze is a good approximation of the “dry fog” experienced throughout the LIA after the very large volcanic eruptions of the era. There are records where people were able to see sunspots with the naked eye. 
 

We haven’t seen a “LIA sized” eruption since Novarupta in Alaska, 1912. HTHH was comparable to Pinatubo (though without the significant volcanic winter, however it still may be having some level of impact through this year). 

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41 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Down to 42 here in the sticks.

The wildfire haze is a good approximation of the “dry fog” experienced throughout the LIA after the very large volcanic eruptions of the era. There are records where people were able to see sunspots with the naked eye. 
 

We haven’t seen a “LIA sized” eruption since Novarupta in Alaska, 1912. HTHH was comparable to Pinatubo (though without the significant volcanic winter, however it still may be having some level of impact through this year). 

On one of the photos from this morning, some sunspots were faintly visible.

image.jpeg.e7f347d14c8ebc70395827b59ae12b66.jpeg

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6 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Down to 42 here in the sticks.

The wildfire haze is a good approximation of the “dry fog” experienced throughout the LIA after the very large volcanic eruptions of the era. There are records where people were able to see sunspots with the naked eye. 
 

We haven’t seen a “LIA sized” eruption since Novarupta in Alaska, 1912. HTHH was comparable to Pinatubo (though without the significant volcanic winter, however it still may be having some level of impact through this year). 

While "burping" Popocatépetl in Mexico is not expected to have a major eruption?  Also, I assume a 20,000 foot high ash cloud is not likely going to affect northern hemispheric temperatures in about 8 months or so (even if it keeps slowly spewing)?

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Just now, Dark Star said:

It's really hard to bet against the trends of warmer than normal months around here.  It would be nice to see the cycle broken.

Yep agree.  The last truly cool summer was 2009 (also a nino) but since then it's been above or well above 

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Glad the high pressure is going to do the job and keep the rain well south of us for the holiday weekend, but the bad thing is it's really drying out again. Would love to see rain after the holiday weekend, but right now next week looks dry. It's back to watering the garden often. 

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Up to 81.  Latest guidance maintaining a dry next 5 days and memorial day weekend.  Looking near normal overall, coller Thu (5/25) back near 70 or below.  Warming into the 70s Fri (5/26), Sat (5/27) and Sun (5/28).   Warmer by memorial Day (5/29).  Still wonder if the ULL throws more clouds into the area.  Next week looks warmer through Thu before front / trough comes in  with Ridge into the Rockies / Plains.

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1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Glad the high pressure is going to do the job and keep the rain well south of us for the holiday weekend, but the bad thing is it's really drying out again. Would love to see rain after the holiday weekend, but right now next week looks dry. It's back to watering the garden often. 

At least in my opinion I find these extended dry periods beyond annoying.  Pattern has been repeating for a while now.  Next 10 days look generally dry and with 10 day dry stretches it does not take long for the soil to dry.  Only saving grace lately has been "cooler" weather and persistent haze with some clouds.  You get a 10 day dry stretch with bright sun and temperatures in the m/u 80's + and grass and gardens left without irrigation will crisp quickly. 

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45 minutes ago, MANDA said:

At least in my opinion I find these extended dry periods beyond annoying.  Pattern has been repeating for a while now.  Next 10 days look generally dry and with 10 day dry stretches it does not take long for the soil to dry.  Only saving grace lately has been "cooler" weather and persistent haze with some clouds.  You get a 10 day dry stretch with bright sun and temperatures in the m/u 80's + and grass and gardens left without irrigation will crisp quickly. 

We did sod in our backyard last year. It’s dead. The drought killed it. Didn’t water it enough. Very sad. 

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An evening shower in some locations will usher in a noticeably cooler air mass. Overnight, readings will fall into the upper 40s and lower 50s in and near New York City and Newark. Outside the cities temperatures will fall into the lower and middle 40s. A few of the colder areas could see temperatures bottom out in the upper 30s.

Tomorrow will be fair and cool for the season. The temperature will top out in the upper 60s to around 70°. Readings will likely remain below normal through the start of the weekend.

Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. With the guidance now showing a late week cool shot, the probability of a somewhat cooler than normal May has continued to increase.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around May 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -64.63 today. That is the lowest figure since the SOI plunged to -80.41 on February 5, 2010.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.792 today.

On May 22 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.476 (RMM). The May 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.274 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 54% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.0° (0.2° below normal).

 

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6 hours ago, Dark Star said:

While "burping" Popocatépetl in Mexico is not expected to have a major eruption?  Also, I assume a 20,000 foot high ash cloud is not likely going to affect northern hemispheric temperatures in about 8 months or so (even if it keeps slowly spewing)?

The issue is volume, it’s just not enough material. Popocatepetl sits on the Trans Mexican Volcanic Belt and is very high altitude so it gets an easy assist with lobbing tephra into the stratosphere, 20,000 ft is only 3,000 ft higher than the summit of the volcano. While an uptick for this system (that’s been constantly active on a smaller scale for a while now), it’s still at best a VEI 3 level eruption from what I’ve seen, and you would need two orders of magnitude more tephra to produce climate effects. 

It’s worth noting that Popocatepetl has done VEI 5 level eruptions in recorded history, so it’s always possible the uptick in activity could escalate into something major but IMO it is unlikely.

Shiveluch’s recent eruption was a small VEI 4 but was still not large enough, stitch ten of them together and you’re in the ballpark. Hunga Tonga was the correct size but deposited most of its material into the ocean despite the monstrous plume (which was primarily phreatic; steam).

The scale gets really crazy. Three Hunga Tonga’s equals Novarupta or Krakatoa. 4-5 of those = Tambora (eruptions this massive happen somewhere around 2-3 times per millennium).

Starting at VEI 3, each level of the scale is an order of magnitude larger. You want to be around a mid VEI 5 (roughly 5km^3 of tephra volume) to start to see climate impacts, modulated by the composition of the erupted magma. Eruptions can have greater or lesser sulfur concentrations, and sulfur is the primary driver of volcanic cooling. 
 

Edit: GeologyHub estimating the past three days of Popocatepetl = VEI 3 level. 

https://youtu.be/HtKh6CTtxwI

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