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May 2023


Brian5671
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Pattern next 2-3 weeks looks dry with temperatures averaging near normal.  Trof axis in the mean looks to center near or just off the northeast coast.  That would favor a dry and warm NW flow.  Readings of 90+ look to be very limited through at least June 15th.  Would not expect more than 1-3 days of 90+ at CP over the next 15-20 days.

This dry pattern is not going away anytime soon and it stinks.  :thumbsdown:

The hose and the sprinkler system are my new best friends.

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Absolutely loving this weather. Top 10 day here. 

Loving how sunny this spring has been. April had a high rainfall total, but Central Park only had 7 days with measurable precipitation. So far in May, its also only 7 days.

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Thr last 3 days of May are averaging    68degs.(58/78) or -1.

Month to date is     62.4[-0.4].       May should end at 63.0[-0.2].

Reached 73 here yesterday.

Today:   72-77, wind e. to se., p. sunny, 56 tomorrow AM.

63*(75%RH) here at 7am{62 overnight}     65* at 8am.      68* at 9am.      70* at 9:30am.     71* at 10am.     70* at 11am.     70* at Noon.       71* at 3pm.        73* at 4pm.      75* at 4:30pm.        Reached 77* at 5pm-7pm.

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71 and mostly sunny.  On way to upper 70s / low 80s and a gorgeous Memorial Day.  Slip back nearer to 70 tomorrow with stronger onshore flow before moderating Tue (5/31).  Still cant imagine we dont see a cloudier than forecast day tue as ull moves nearby and out. 

June opens warmer by Wed (6/1) and Thu (6/2) with shot at 90 in the warmer spots, coupled with recent arid conditions. 

more of a NNE flow by the weekend cools it back off as trough backs in 6/4 - 6/9 but overall near normal.  Have to see if rain chances or meaningful rain increases in the period.  

Beyond there once  more W/NW flow established should see warmer overall.

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

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Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 97 (1987)
NYC: 97 (1969)
LGA: 95 (1987)

Lows:


EWR: 40 (1936)
NYC: 43 (1902)
LGA: 48 (2021)

 

Historical:

1947: An unprecedented late-spring snowstorm blasts portions of the Midwest from eastern Wyoming to eastern Upper Michigan. The heavy snow caused severe damage to power and telephone lines and the already-leafed-out vegetation. 


1951 - A massive hailstorm, from Wallace to Kearney County in Kansas, caused six million dollars damage to crops. (David Ludlum)

1953 - A tornado, 600 yards wide at times, killed two persons on its 20 mile path from southwest of Fort Rice ND into Emmons County. Nearly every building in Fort Rice was damaged. The Catholic church was leveled, with some pews jammed four feet into the ground. (The Weather Channel)

 

1982: Two significant tornadoes ripped through southern Illinois. The most severe was an F4 that touched down northeast of Carbondale, Illinois then moved to Marion. The twister had multiple vortices within the main funnel. Extensive damage occurred at the Marion Airport. A total of 10 people were killed, and 181 were injured. 648 homes and 200 cars were damaged or destroyed, with total damages around $100 million.

1987 - Thunderstorms in West Texas produced softball size hail at Lamesa, and hail up to twelve inches deep east of Dimmitt. Thunderstorms also spawned seven tornadoes in West Texas, including one which injured three persons at Wolfforth. Thunderstorms deluged the Texas Hill Country with up to eleven inches of rain. Severe flooding along the Medino, Hondo, Seco, Sabinal and Frio rivers caused more than fifty million dollars damage. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - A powerful cold front brought snow and high winds to parts of the western U.S. Austin, NV, was blanketed with ten inches of snow, and winds gusted to 75 mph at the Mojave Airport in California. Strong southerly winds and unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the north central U.S. Glasgow, MT, equalled their record for the month of May with a high of 102 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Wintry weather gripped parts of the northwestern U.S. for the second day in a row. Great Falls, MT, was blanketed with 12 inches of snow, which pushed their total for the winter season to a record 117.4 inches. Six inches of snow whitened the Cascade Mountains of Oregon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather from north central Colorado to the northern half of Texas. Severe thunderstorms spawned four tornadoes, and there were seventy reports of large hail or damaging winds. Midday thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 90 mph at Hobart, OK, and produced up to three and a half inches of rain in eastern Colorado in four hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

midwest3.png 

 

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Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler in the Middle Atlantic region, but temperatures will begin to rebound on Wednesday.

June could start with above normal temperatures, but a trough will likely develop leading to a return of cooler conditions shortly afterward.

The latest ECMWF weeklies suggest that sustained warmer than normal conditions could develop during or after the second week of June.

Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. The latest data suggests that May 2023 is now extremely likely to wind up somewhat cooler than normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around May 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -0.82 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.369 today.

On May 27 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.796 (RMM). The May 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.803 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.8° (0.4° below normal).

 

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2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Back door front wildfire smoke. That… doesn’t happen every day. 

What on earth is burning in Nova Scotia?

I have this 'Anne of Green Gables' image of a mostly rural farming oriented province, does not seem a promising site for massive wildfires.

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17 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

1990 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather from north central Colorado to the northern half of Texas. Severe thunderstorms spawned four tornadoes, and there were seventy reports of large hail or damaging winds. Midday thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 90 mph at Hobart, OK, and produced up to three and a half inches of rain in eastern Colorado in four hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

midwest3.png 

 

That t-storm rocked the Colorado high country and scared me silly. I was driving on a ridge road watching the light show on the divide a few miles away when all of a sudden the engine revved really high and BANG! The loudest sound and simultaneous flash I've ever heard. I truly thought I was done for. The truck shut off and there was steam and smoke coming from it when I opened my eyes. 

I got out right in the middle of the road and there was a huge scorch mark on the road and along the passenger side with the paint bubbled off right by the antenna which had turned blue. When I saw my reflection in the window I broke out laughing, my hair was still standing up straight and my beard was a huge poofball. Fukkknn ZAPPP! 

 

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8 hours ago, etudiant said:

What on earth is burning in Nova Scotia?

I have this 'Anne of Green Gables' image of a mostly rural farming oriented province, does not seem a promising site for massive wildfires.

It’s actually very densely forested. Very similar forest type to that of Maine. Another summer drought is the last thing I want. As we head into maximum solar insulation things get dry very quick. 

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The last 2 days of May are averaging    67degs.(56/78) or -2.

Month to date is     62.6[-0.3].       May should end at    62.9[-0.3].

Reached 77 here yesterday at 5pm.

Today:    68-72, wind e. to se., p. sunny 56 tomorrow AM.

57*(68%RH) here at 7am{was 55 overnight}.      59* at 8am.      62* at Noon.      64* at 2pm.   70* at 5pm.   Reached 72* at 7pm.     67* at 8pm.

First GFS run with an unfulfilled 100 or+?    Every year this happens maybe on 100 runs during the summer.

1685426400-K7SpLqLigX8.png

 

 

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Up to 62 off of lows in the lower 50s.  Smoke visible and encroaching in C-LI heading SSW at a good clip.  Cooler onshore flow today with most in the low 70s.  A bit Warmer tomorrow md 70s before back to the 80s to open June Thu (6/1) and perhaps a stray 90 on Fri (6/2) as flow pushes down some warmth on NW flow.  It's a quick warm up

As the weekend turns much cooler and pending on guidance perhaps some rain/clouds to make Saturday (6/3) a raw one.  Trough digs down into the NE and subsequent cut off between 6/6 - 6/9 should bring cooler / and next meaningful rain perhaps the next deluge.

Beyond there heights looks to rise in the east and warmup into Mid month.

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif 

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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 98 (1987)
NYC: 97 (1987)
LGA: 96  (1987)

Lows:

EWR: 39 (1947) - latest below 40 reading.
NYC: 42 (1884)
LGA: 48 (2021)

Historical:

 

1879 - A major outbreak of severe weather occurred in Kansas and western Missouri. In Kansas, tornadoes killed eighteen persons at Delphos, and thirty persons at Irving. Two tornadoes struck the town of Irving within a few minutes time virtually wiping the small Kansas community off the map. The second tornado was perhaps two miles wide, and exhibited multiple vortices. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1927: The Kentucky River peaks during a massive flood that killed 89 people and left thousands homeless. Torrential rains caused this unprecedented flood. 

1948 - A railroad bed acting as a dam gave way during a flood along the Columbia River destroying the town of Vanport, OR. The nearly 19,000 residents escaped with little more than the clothes on their backs. (David Ludlum)

1948 - Twenty carloads of glass were needed in Denver, CO, to replace that destroyed by a severe hailstorm. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the eastern U.S. Eighteen cities, from Virginia to Ohio and Michigan, reported record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 97 degrees at Baltimore, MD, and Washington, DC, and 98 degrees at Newark, NJ, were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Memorial Day heralded heavy snow in some of the mountains and higher passes of Wyoming, closing roads in Yellowstone Park. McDonald Pass, MT, was blanketed with eight inches of snow, while the temperature at Miles City, MT, soared to 94 degrees. A "supercell" thunderstorm in west Texas produced baseball size hail in Bailey and Lamb counties, and up to five inches of rain in less than an hour. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley during the day. A powerful (F-4) tornado injured three persons and caused a million dollars damage at New Providence, IA. Baseball size hail was reported at Blue Earth, MN. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms developing along a warm front spawned fourteen tornadoes in northeastern Texas during the late afternoon and evening hours. The thunderstorms also produced baseball size hail near Marshall, wind gusts to 77 mph at Commerce, and up to five inches of rain. Thunderstorms over southwestern Kansas produced up to six inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

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