WestBabylonWeather Posted May 21, 2023 Share Posted May 21, 2023 Another MDW washout and cancelled air show. Tired of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted May 21, 2023 Share Posted May 21, 2023 This leads to low pressure and offshore moisture being drawn in from the SE and E at some point during the holiday weekend from the ECMWF, and a bit later out in time from the CMC GEM. It may work out that this offshore moisture does not get tapped, depending on how the upper level low forms and manifest itself. In the meantime strayed form consensus guidance a bit and added more cloud cover and added slight chance PoPs for the start of the weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 21, 2023 Share Posted May 21, 2023 22 minutes ago, forkyfork said: we had better get inches of rain from this Can bet on it. We'll see if the heat follows this mess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted May 21, 2023 Share Posted May 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Can bet on it. We'll see if the heat follows this mess. I'm skeptical about much if any heat prior to the second or third week of June. WX/PT 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted May 21, 2023 Share Posted May 21, 2023 8 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Can bet on it. We'll see if the heat follows this mess. Memorial day is like Thanksgining when it weather. A cool rainy Memorial Day doesn't mean a cool summer..Like a warm Thanksgiving doesn't mean a warm winter. We have had our share of misrable Memorial Days in the past. It's not Summer yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 21, 2023 Share Posted May 21, 2023 smoky sunset incoming 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 21, 2023 Share Posted May 21, 2023 2 hours ago, SACRUS said: GFS much less (ugly) but it's Memorial Day and the uglier solution is prone to prevailing. :-) We'll see. Euro had the cut off down in the southeast a few days back but had been persistent there would be something undercutting the ridge. Looks like trough into the PNW/WC eyond Memorial Day with flatter flow and some ridging pishing east once the cut off / ULL is sorted out. GFS & GEFS trending uglier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 21, 2023 Share Posted May 21, 2023 1 hour ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: I'm skeptical about much if any heat prior to the second or third week of June. WX/PT There's no major heat indicators atm. Maybe near to slightly AN overall but definitely some cooler days mixed in too. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 21, 2023 Share Posted May 21, 2023 Picked up 1.08" of rain for the day yestersay, not bad. Current temp 70 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted May 21, 2023 Share Posted May 21, 2023 Wasn't today supposed to be warmer? Instead of mid to upper 70s it remaining steady in the mid 60s, windy and mostly cloudy from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted May 21, 2023 Share Posted May 21, 2023 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: smoky sunset incoming Nasty smoke plume persists over the northern plains stretching across the GL into parts of the NE. Those Canadian fires have been going on for about 3 weeks now I think. Smoke advisories and air quality alerts across parts of MT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 21, 2023 Share Posted May 21, 2023 Should see more sunshine and late PM highs as temps push up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 21, 2023 Share Posted May 21, 2023 today was suppose to get to at least 75 in nyc.. does not look like we will reach it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 21, 2023 Share Posted May 21, 2023 70. Beautiful day out here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted May 21, 2023 Share Posted May 21, 2023 Insane sunset tonight. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 22, 2023 Share Posted May 22, 2023 Tomorrow will be fair and mild with readings reaching the lower and middle 70s. After mid-week, cooler air will overspread the region. Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. With the guidance now showing a late week cool shot, the probability of a somewhat cooler than normal May has increased. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around May 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer. The SOI was -25.87 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.162 today. On May 19 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.853 (RMM). The May 18-adjusted amplitude was 2.018 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.0° (0.2° below normal). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 22, 2023 Share Posted May 22, 2023 72 today. Beautiful day to take out the boat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 22, 2023 Share Posted May 22, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 65degs.(55/75) or -2. Month to date is 61.7[-0.1]. Should be 62.6[-0.6] by the 30th. Reached 73 here yesterday at 6:30pm. Today: 71-75, wind e., variable clouds, 57 tomorrow AM. 62*(70%RH) here at 7am{was 61 at 6am}. 64* at 8am. 68* at 10am. 70* at 11am. 72* at Noon. Down to 68* at 1pm. 69* most of the PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 22, 2023 Author Share Posted May 22, 2023 Overnight models better for the weekend-keeps rains well to the south... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted May 22, 2023 Share Posted May 22, 2023 Forecast for today is sunny, but today is akin to a day with tons of high level clouds/cirrus due to all the smoke in the sky from the wildfires. It gives that dull, gloomy feeling to what should be a sunny day. Bummer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 22, 2023 Share Posted May 22, 2023 26 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Overnight models better for the weekend-keeps rains well to the south... Not the gfs I hope the weekend gets ruined 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 22, 2023 Author Share Posted May 22, 2023 Just now, MJO812 said: Not the gfs I hope the weekend gets ruined Just Sunday on the GFS. I'd be fine with one day that's lousy... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted May 22, 2023 Share Posted May 22, 2023 44 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Overnight models better for the weekend-keeps rains well to the south... Good. I want to see air show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 22, 2023 Share Posted May 22, 2023 i enjoy rainy weekends.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 22, 2023 Share Posted May 22, 2023 33 minutes ago, nycwinter said: i enjoy rainy weekends.. Same I have to work this weekend so I don't care if it rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 22, 2023 Share Posted May 22, 2023 62 and sunny with smokey skies. Dry and near normal this work week. Mid 70s today , coller Tue (5/23) near 70. Near 80 Wed (5/24) before cooler on Thu (5/25) and Fri (5/26). Low ride Memorial day Weekend. ULL cuts off over the Northeast (north of previous guidance) by Fri / Sat (5/27). Ridge pushes above and below causing onshore flow. A second cut off into the Southeast (which was previously forecast on guidance earlier last week's long range). That slowly moves out just south of the areas by early next week on the euro and slower on he gfs by next monday through the region. Overall - onshore flow and we'll see how much of the clouds and rains make it in during the weekend. Beyond there - look for a push of warmth by early / middle of next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted May 22, 2023 Share Posted May 22, 2023 On 5/21/2023 at 11:14 AM, Wxoutlooksblog said: I'm skeptical about much if any heat prior to the second or third week of June. WX/PT Great call from over a month ago for little if any heat thru at least the middle of May if I remember correctly. All the Mt. Holly PA & NJ locations are solidly below average at this point in the month. Locally & at nearby TTN only one 80 day since 4/14. Now if we could pull off a dry / cool couplet during one of the summer months that would really be something. Speaking of dry. PHL is currently sitting at a paltry 0.24" of precip for the month. The driest May on record is 0.47" in 1964. The last time PHL recorded any driest month on record was FEB 2002 (0.55"). Additionally should we strike out on the weekend rain opportunity you're looking at one of the driest months on record at any time of year: 0.09" - OCT 1963 0.09" - OCT 1924 0.11" - JUN 1949 0.20" - SEP 1884 0.21" - SEP 2005 0.21" - JUN 1964 0.25" - DEC 1955 0.30" - OCT 1892 0.32" - NOV 1976 0.36" - SEP 1906 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted May 22, 2023 Share Posted May 22, 2023 Thick haze between clouds today. Smoke? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 22, 2023 Share Posted May 22, 2023 Looks like a dry weekend coming up now according to the models. Activity stays north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted May 22, 2023 Share Posted May 22, 2023 16 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Thick haze between clouds today. Smoke? Yes, very hazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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