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May 2023


Brian5671
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This leads to low pressure and offshore moisture
being drawn in from the SE and E at some point during the
holiday weekend from the ECMWF, and a bit later out in time from
the CMC GEM. It may work out that this offshore moisture does
not get tapped, depending on how the upper level low forms and
manifest itself. In the meantime strayed form consensus guidance
a bit and added more cloud cover and added slight chance PoPs
for the start of the weekend.
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8 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Can bet on it.  We'll see if the heat follows this mess.

Memorial day is like Thanksgining when it weather. A cool rainy Memorial Day doesn't mean a cool summer..Like a warm Thanksgiving doesn't mean a warm winter. We have had our share of misrable Memorial Days in the past. It's not Summer yet.

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2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

GFS much less (ugly) but it's Memorial Day and the uglier solution is prone to prevailing. :-) 

We'll see.  Euro had the cut off down in the southeast a few days back but had been persistent there would be something undercutting the ridge.   Looks like trough into the PNW/WC eyond Memorial Day with flatter flow and some ridging pishing east once the cut off / ULL is sorted out.

GFS & GEFS trending uglier. 

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Tomorrow will be fair and mild with readings reaching the lower and middle 70s. After mid-week, cooler air will overspread the region.

Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. With the guidance now showing a late week cool shot, the probability of a somewhat cooler than normal May has increased.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around May 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -25.87 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.162 today.

On May 19 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.853 (RMM). The May 18-adjusted amplitude was 2.018 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.0° (0.2° below normal).

 

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The  next 8 days are averaging    65degs.(55/75) or -2.

Month to date is      61.7[-0.1].      Should be     62.6[-0.6] by the 30th.

Reached 73 here yesterday at 6:30pm.

Today:   71-75, wind e., variable clouds, 57 tomorrow AM.

62*(70%RH) here at 7am{was 61 at 6am}.      64* at 8am.      68* at 10am.      70* at 11am.       72* at Noon.      Down to 68* at 1pm.        69* most of the PM.

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62 and sunny with smokey  skies.  Dry and near normal this work week.  Mid 70s today , coller Tue (5/23) near 70.  Near 80 Wed (5/24) before cooler on Thu (5/25) and Fri (5/26).

Low ride Memorial day Weekend.  ULL cuts off over the Northeast (north of previous guidance) by Fri / Sat (5/27). Ridge pushes above and below causing onshore flow.  A second cut off into the Southeast (which was previously forecast on guidance earlier last week's long range). That slowly moves out just south of the areas by early next week on the euro and slower on he gfs by next monday through the region.  Overall - onshore flow and we'll see how much of the clouds and rains make it in during the weekend.

Beyond there - look for a push of warmth by early / middle of next week.

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

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On 5/21/2023 at 11:14 AM, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I'm skeptical about much if any heat prior to the second or third week of June.

WX/PT

Great call from over a month ago for little if any heat thru at least the middle of May if I remember correctly. All the Mt. Holly PA & NJ locations are solidly below average at this point in the month. Locally & at nearby TTN only one 80 day since 4/14. Now if we could pull off a dry / cool couplet during one of the summer months that would really be something.

Speaking of dry.

PHL is currently sitting at a paltry 0.24" of precip for the month. The driest May on record is 0.47" in 1964. The last time PHL recorded any driest month on record was FEB 2002 (0.55").

Additionally should we strike out on the weekend rain opportunity you're looking at one of the driest months on record at any time of year:

0.09" - OCT 1963

0.09" - OCT 1924

0.11" - JUN 1949

0.20" - SEP 1884

0.21" - SEP 2005

0.21" - JUN 1964

0.25" - DEC 1955

0.30" - OCT 1892

0.32" - NOV 1976

0.36" - SEP 1906

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