sbnwx85 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Spotty sun poking through in the Chicago area now too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 23 minutes ago, homedis said: 95% issuance of tornado watch in N 3/4 of Missouri and far W Central IL per SPC MD #388 for this morning cluster just exiting Kansas. Will be interesting to see how this plays out, will this wave be the main show for N IL? Are the dynamics of this system strong enough to recover quickly for the primary threat? Time will tell! Also to note, am already seeing peeks of sun here in Chicago. Working out of the south side of the city today. Peaks of sun, super bright. Day is starting to get that feel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 DVN is most concerned with the lead wave tracking from south of KC to northern Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 21 minutes ago, schoeppeya said: Visible showing that a huge chunk of MO, IL, and IN are going to get at the very least several hours of sunshine today. Can confirm, sun is shining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 9 minutes ago, King James said: Working out of the south side of the city today. Peaks of sun, super bright. Day is starting to get that feel Been too long since we have had a set up not be limited by daytime clouds and/or convection. Today definitely doesn't feel like one of those days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 It seems that SPC has to be at least considering a high risk, the biggest argument against being uncertainty regarding the location of the highest threat area. The only question that remains is to what extent/how long, will cells remain discrete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Strong sunshine here in pike county. They have called off school which I don't ever remember happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
METALSTORM Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Near St Louis in Jefferson County MO. My kids school is having late pickup kids be in the art room this afternoon which is in the basement area. Bright sunshine over the area with rapidly warming temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 My biggest concerns for this event verifying were weak thermodynamics and a lack of backed surface winds. Visible and surface obs are largely showing neither of those will be an issue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Interesting that the MO storms seem to have fizzled out/coverage is less than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Seems like it’s going to be one of those days where everything is going to be spinning. HRRR continuing to show multiple significant updraft helicity tracks through IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 I am expecting multiple PDS tor watches to be issued today in the affected areas. This system is just so potent with parameters and the clearing skies only make things more unstable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 minute ago, Indystorm said: I am expecting multiple PDS tor watches to be issued today in the affected areas. This system is just so potent with parameters and the clearing skies only make things more unstable. Sun just started shining through the window behind me as I read this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 If you can play the “read the cryptic tweets” game this would imply high risk coming at 1630 for somewhere in the larger zone edit: tweet has been deleted, too soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 minute ago, crossbowftw3 said: If you can play the “read the cryptic tweets” game this would imply high risk coming at 1630 for somewhere in the larger zone Can easily justify high risks where the moderates were placed yesterday stretching into N central IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Incoming High Risk for Western Illinois. Wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXMan42711 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Mesoscale Discussion 0390 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1037 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Iowa...northwestern Illinois...and far northeastern Missouri Concerning...Outlook upgrade Valid 311537Z - 311630Z SUMMARY...Portions of the Moderate Risk over southeastern IA, northwestern IL, and far northeastern MO will be upgraded to a categorical High Risk in the 1630 UTC Convective outlook. DISCUSSION...An upgrade to a tornado-driven High Risk (30% probability) is expected for the 1630 UTC outlook. Environmental conditions are quickly becoming favorable to support the potential for numerous strong to potentially violent and long-track tornadoes across portions of southeastern IA, northwestern IL, and far northeastern MO. Please see the forthcoming Day 1 outlook update for more information. ..Lyons/Smith.. 03/31/2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXMan42711 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 not necessarily in this region of the forum but the southern end of the moderate will also be upgraded to high. significant day unfolding for a large part of the country. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 9 minutes ago, WXMan42711 said: Mesoscale Discussion 0390 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1037 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Iowa...northwestern Illinois...and far northeastern Missouri Concerning...Outlook upgrade Valid 311537Z - 311630Z SUMMARY...Portions of the Moderate Risk over southeastern IA, northwestern IL, and far northeastern MO will be upgraded to a categorical High Risk in the 1630 UTC Convective outlook. DISCUSSION...An upgrade to a tornado-driven High Risk (30% probability) is expected for the 1630 UTC outlook. Environmental conditions are quickly becoming favorable to support the potential for numerous strong to potentially violent and long-track tornadoes across portions of southeastern IA, northwestern IL, and far northeastern MO. Please see the forthcoming Day 1 outlook update for more information. ..Lyons/Smith.. 03/31/2023 The only other time a tor driven high risk was issued for that region was also in March. Does anyone know what date that was? I don't know my severe weather history all that well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Hig risk incoming for both the Mid-South and the Quad Cities area... EDIT: And a PDS Tornado Watch is incoming for Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Not my subforum but I'll be following along. Be safe today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Crazy that we got two separate high risks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 I think this might be the first day one high risk day with two non-contiguous high risk areas. At least I can't find any others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Just now, mjwise said: I think this might be the first day one high risk day with two non-contiguous high risk areas. At least I can't find any others. the initial 4/14/12 day 1 outlook had 2 high risk areas that got merged 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXMan42711 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 minute ago, mjwise said: I think this might be the first day one high risk day with two non-contiguous high risk areas. At least I can't find any others. april 14, 2012 out on the high plains. april 13's day 2 featured two separate high risks and then april 14 started out with two before they eventually became one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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