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March 31st Severe Threat


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23 minutes ago, homedis said:

95% issuance of tornado watch in N 3/4 of Missouri and far W Central IL per SPC MD #388 for this morning cluster just exiting Kansas. Will be interesting to see how this plays out, will this wave be the main show for N IL? Are the dynamics of this system strong enough to recover quickly for the primary threat? Time will tell!

Also to note, am already seeing peeks of sun here in Chicago.

Working out of the south side of the city today. Peaks of sun, super bright. Day is starting to get that feel 

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9 minutes ago, King James said:

Working out of the south side of the city today. Peaks of sun, super bright. Day is starting to get that feel 

Been too long since we have had a set up not be limited by daytime clouds and/or convection. Today definitely doesn't feel like one of those days.

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1 minute ago, Indystorm said:

I am expecting multiple PDS tor watches to be issued today in the affected areas. This system is just so potent with parameters and the clearing skies only make things more unstable.

Sun just started shining through the window behind me as I read this

 

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Image

 

 Mesoscale Discussion 0390
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1037 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

   Areas affected...portions of southeastern Iowa...northwestern
   Illinois...and far northeastern Missouri

   Concerning...Outlook upgrade 

   Valid 311537Z - 311630Z

   SUMMARY...Portions of the Moderate Risk over southeastern IA,
   northwestern IL, and far northeastern MO will be upgraded to a
   categorical High Risk in the 1630 UTC Convective outlook.

   DISCUSSION...An upgrade to a tornado-driven High Risk (30%
   probability) is expected for the 1630 UTC outlook. Environmental
   conditions are quickly becoming favorable to support the potential
   for numerous strong to potentially violent and long-track tornadoes
   across portions of southeastern IA, northwestern IL, and far
   northeastern MO. Please see the forthcoming Day 1 outlook update for
   more information.

   ..Lyons/Smith.. 03/31/2023

 

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9 minutes ago, WXMan42711 said:

Image

 

 Mesoscale Discussion 0390
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1037 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

   Areas affected...portions of southeastern Iowa...northwestern
   Illinois...and far northeastern Missouri

   Concerning...Outlook upgrade 

   Valid 311537Z - 311630Z

   SUMMARY...Portions of the Moderate Risk over southeastern IA,
   northwestern IL, and far northeastern MO will be upgraded to a
   categorical High Risk in the 1630 UTC Convective outlook.

   DISCUSSION...An upgrade to a tornado-driven High Risk (30%
   probability) is expected for the 1630 UTC outlook. Environmental
   conditions are quickly becoming favorable to support the potential
   for numerous strong to potentially violent and long-track tornadoes
   across portions of southeastern IA, northwestern IL, and far
   northeastern MO. Please see the forthcoming Day 1 outlook update for
   more information.

   ..Lyons/Smith.. 03/31/2023

 

The only other time a tor driven high risk was issued for that region was also in March. Does anyone know what date that was? I don't know my severe weather history all that well.

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1 minute ago, mjwise said:

I think this might be the first day one high risk day with two non-contiguous high risk areas. At least I can't find any others.

 

april 14, 2012 out on the high plains. april 13's day 2 featured two separate high risks and then april 14 started out with two before they eventually became one.

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