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March 31st Severe Threat


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39 minutes ago, andyhb said:

06z HRRR has a trio of long tracked supercells across the northern third of IL, endangering several large population centers including Chicagoland from 3-6 pm. Very dangerous solution.

It's consistently taking a robust helicity track right through Peoria where I live. Storm mode definitely more discrete to semi discrete versus more clustered towards Iowa. Is this forming on a lead wave or just on the lead edge of the exit region of the jet? Seems like this first wave may be the more robust tornado threat with a potential 2nd round associated more with cf which looks more qlcs variety albeit still showed supercell characteristics and some broken quality to line. 

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I’ve been watching this discussion. While I’m further East in Indiana, I’ll be in Indy with a couple of thousand students for a concert band and orchestra festival performing this weekend. Hopefully things settle down come later in the day.

Also, the largest show for the trucking industry is happening in Louisville. There are hundreds of show semis worth hundreds of thousands of dollars each sitting outside. Yikes.


.

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30 minutes ago, KokomoWX said:

Also, the largest show for the trucking industry is happening in Louisville. There are hundreds of show semis worth hundreds of thousands of dollars each sitting outside. Yikes.

Oh no. How will excess capitalism ever recover? 

Good luck, y’all. Will miss being in Chicago for this. 

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4 hours ago, StormChaser4Life said:

It's consistently taking a robust helicity track right through Peoria where I live. Storm mode definitely more discrete to semi discrete versus more clustered towards Iowa. Is this forming on a lead wave or just on the lead edge of the exit region of the jet? Seems like this first wave may be the more robust tornado threat with a potential 2nd round associated more with cf which looks more qlcs variety albeit still showed supercell characteristics and some broken quality to line. 

Shades of big Dixie Alley outbreaks with 2 waves with the lead wave having winds backed more ahead of it 

 
 
 
 
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Convection firing in SE Kansas with the first wave 

new SPC

 

    ..MIDWEST AND THE MID-MS TO OH VALLEYS     A 992-MB CYCLONE OVER EASTERN NE WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON   AS IT MATURES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BEFORE OCCLUDING THIS   EVENING. A PLUME OF SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY SUPPORTED BY MID 50S TO   60S DEW POINTS ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS   WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MID TO LOWER MS VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY.   GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT INITIALLY ELEVATED CONVECTION   SHOULD INCREASE IN THE OZARKS VICINITY BY LATE MORNING ALONG THE   EASTERN GRADIENT OF THE DEEPER BUOYANCY PLUME AS A LOBE OF LOW-LEVEL   ASCENT SPREADS NORTHEAST DOWNSTREAM OF THE VIGOROUS CENTRAL TO   SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THIS LEAD ACTIVITY WILL   HAVE AT LEAST A LARGE HAIL THREAT, HOW THE OTHER HAZARDS EVOLVE   DOWNSTREAM INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MS RIVER INTO IL IS QUITE   UNCERTAIN GIVEN LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE WITH OVERALL   COVERAGE/INTENSITY, ALONG WITH PRONOUNCED DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY   SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION OCCURS TO THE EAST.

 

THE PRIMARY SEVERE EVOLUTION REMAINS LIKELY TO EVOLVE BEGINNING   AROUND 19Z TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS CENTRAL IA   AND BROADENING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE   NORTH/SOUTH-ORIENTED COLD FRONT ARCING SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN MO.   VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER-LEVEL   HODOGRAPH WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT A BROKEN BAND OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE   OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL. AS ACTIVITY RAPIDLY SPREADS INTO AN   INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SRH ENVIRONMENT IN EASTERN IA AND   THE MS VALLEY, SEVERAL TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO FORM, A FEW OF   WHICH COULD BE STRONG AND LONG-TRACKED.     THERE SHOULD BE AN ADEQUATE GAP BETWEEN THE LEAD AND PRIMARY ROUNDS   OF CONVECTION TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SUPERCELLS THROUGH AT LEAST   EAST-CENTRAL MO INTO MOST OF IL INTO EARLY EVENING. WITHIN A 3-6 STP   ENVIRONMENT AND THE CORE OF THE 500-700 MB JETS UPSTREAM THERE WILL   BE A THREAT FOR A COUPLE, LONG-TRACKED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF   PRODUCING STRONG TO POTENTIALLY VIOLENT TORNADOES.  

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8 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Major expansion of the moderate risk on the new outlook 

About doubled, both in terms of population and area. Also the Enhanced pushed well East all the way to Ohio. 

These threats that effect large areas with the mod/enh tend to be a bigger deal than a small high risk.

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I'm watching this from afar in NH.  I can not remember the last "high" risk.  2 questions.  The next convective outlook would come out in 6 hours, right?  My second questions is do they ever change convective outlooks with any special outlooks?  I know the discussions come out more often.  

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1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

I'm watching this from afar in NH.  I can not remember the last "high" risk.  2 questions.  The next convective outlook would come out in 6 hours, right?  My second questions is do they ever change convective outlooks with any special outlooks?  I know the discussions come out more often.  

Next SPC OTLK is at 1630z... or 1230pm

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I'm watching this from afar in NH.  I can not remember the last "high" risk.  2 questions.  The next convective outlook would come out in 6 hours, right?  My second questions is do they ever change convective outlooks with any special outlooks?  I know the discussions come out more often.  
They have issued special outlooks before for upgrades or corrections.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

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9 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

About doubled, both in terms of population and area. Also the Enhanced pushed well East all the way to Ohio. 

These threats that effect large areas with the mod/enh tend to be a bigger deal than a small high risk.

This is a wicked outlook, the geographical extent of both mod and enh are so large that the chances of this not being a memorable day are rapidly diminishing. Even if there is a failure mode somewhere you can still have all hell break loose in another spot.

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With overnight/morning trends I"m strongly leaning towards retargeting to somewhere between I-80 and I-74 in IL instead of going to Iowa; looking like initiation will be further west and earlier in the latter state, increasing the likelihood that the discrete mode will have ended by the time I can intercept after leaving work at noon. CAM solutions suggest IL should have an hour or two longer before CI.

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95% issuance of tornado watch in N 3/4 of Missouri and far W Central IL per SPC MD #388 for this morning cluster just exiting Kansas. Will be interesting to see how this plays out, will this wave be the main show for N IL? Are the dynamics of this system strong enough to recover quickly for the primary threat? Time will tell!

Also to note, am already seeing peeks of sun here in Chicago.

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mcd0388.png

 

esoscale Discussion 0388
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0836 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

   Areas affected...Far eastern KS into MO...southern IA...western IL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 311336Z - 311500Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe thunderstorm threat will increase substantially
   through the morning. Tornado Watch issuance is likely.

   DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has recently intensified over
   eastern KS, in association with a subtle lead shortwave trough
   ejecting in advance of a larger/more intense trough moving toward
   the central Plains. A strong low-level jet will support rapid
   airmass modification downstream of the ongoing convection into MO
   and southern IA, and surface-based convection will likely develop
   later this morning as the lead shortwave and ongoing convection move
   quickly east-northeastward.   

   Regional 12Z soundings depict very favorable midlevel lapse rates
   and strong deep-layer shear. The ongoing elevated convection will
   pose a risk of hail, with all hazards becoming possible later this
   morning, as the potential for surface-based supercells increases. If
   any surface-based supercell can become established this morning,
   favorable low-level shear could support some strong tornado threat
   with this lead convection into the afternoon, along with a risk of
   very large hail. 

   While some uncertainty remains regarding the convective evolution
   this morning, Tornado Watch issuance will likely be needed for at
   least parts of the MCD area by 15Z.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 03/31/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...
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