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March 31st Severe Threat


pen_artist
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6 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

At 1155 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Brunswick, or 9 miles north of Slater, moving northeast at 70 mph.

These storms are moving fast.  Going to make chasing rather challenging for those who go out.

My understanding is that fast storm motion can inhibit tornado formation as the updraft is continually being disrupted. If my memory serves anything over about 50 mph is when this starts coming into play. Just something to watch, but there are certainly exceptions to this rule, as fast moving tornadoes are definitely a thing.

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90/90 tor probs

SEL4

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 94
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Much of Arkansas
     Southern Illinois
     Western Kentucky
     Southern Missouri
     Northwest Mississippi
     West Tennessee
     Northeast Texas

   * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1230 PM until
     800 PM CDT.

   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

   * Primary threats include...
     Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
       inches in diameter likely
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

   SUMMARY...Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and
   spread across the mid Mississippi Valley region this afternoon and
   early evening.  Supercells capable of damaging tornadoes, large
   hail, and damaging winds are all possible.  Parameters are
   sufficiently favorable for the risk of strong/violent tornadoes.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 120 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 30 miles east southeast of El Dorado AR
   to 5 miles northwest of Saint Louis MO. For a complete depiction of
   the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
   WOU4).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 93...

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
   storm motion vector 25035.

   ...Hart

 

image.gif.9ab91b198552ae5722ecda43962a43c7.gif

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It begins

Tornado Warning
IAC039-053-159-175-311830-
/O.NEW.KDMX.TO.W.0001.230331T1740Z-230331T1830Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1240 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

The National Weather Service in Des Moines  has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northern Decatur County in south central Iowa...
  Southeastern Union County in south central Iowa...
  Eastern Ringgold County in south central Iowa...
  Southwestern Clarke County in south central Iowa...

* Until 130 PM CDT.

* At 1240 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
  tornado was located 5 miles northwest of Hatfield, or 8 miles south
  of Mount Ayr, moving northeast at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Mt Ayr Municipal Airport around 1245 PM CDT.
  Kellerton around 1255 PM CDT.
  Beaconsfield around 100 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this tornadic thunderstorm include Sun
Valley Lake, Grand River, Decatur City and Van Wert.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 12 and 25.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4100 9393 4081 9365 4057 9411 4057 9436
TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 223DEG 42KT 4059 9420

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN

$$

Hagenhoff
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And now AR

Tornado Warning

Tornado Warning
ARC019-051-059-097-105-109-311815-
/O.NEW.KLZK.TO.W.0035.230331T1741Z-230331T1815Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1241 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

The National Weather Service in Little Rock has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northwestern Clark County in southwestern Arkansas...
  Southwestern Perry County in central Arkansas...
  Northwestern Pike County in southwestern Arkansas...
  Garland County in central Arkansas...
  Southeastern Montgomery County in western Arkansas...
  West central Hot Spring County in southwestern Arkansas...

* Until 115 PM CDT.

* At 1240 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
  tornado was located near Daisy, or 13 miles east of Umpire, moving
  northeast at 60 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and half dollar size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  Hot Springs...                    Glenwood...
  Mountain Pine...                  Norman...
  Daisy...                          Hot Springs Memorial Field...
  Meyers...                         Lake Ouachita State Park...
  Lofton...                         Rockwell...
  Hot Springs National Park...      Daisy State Park...
  Avant...                          Oaklawn Racetrack...
  Bonnerdale...                     Mt Tabor...
  Sunshine...                       Lodi...
  Langley...                        Royal...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3420 9387 3429 9391 3483 9318 3445 9296
TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 238DEG 52KT 3429 9381

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN

$$

53
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5 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

It begins

Tornado Warning
IAC039-053-159-175-311830-
/O.NEW.KDMX.TO.W.0001.230331T1740Z-230331T1830Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1240 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

The National Weather Service in Des Moines  has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northern Decatur County in south central Iowa...
  Southeastern Union County in south central Iowa...
  Eastern Ringgold County in south central Iowa...
  Southwestern Clarke County in south central Iowa...

* Until 130 PM CDT.

* At 1240 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
  tornado was located 5 miles northwest of Hatfield, or 8 miles south
  of Mount Ayr, moving northeast at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Mt Ayr Municipal Airport around 1245 PM CDT.
  Kellerton around 1255 PM CDT.
  Beaconsfield around 100 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this tornadic thunderstorm include Sun
Valley Lake, Grand River, Decatur City and Van Wert.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 12 and 25.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4100 9393 4081 9365 4057 9411 4057 9436
TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 223DEG 42KT 4059 9420

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN

$$

Hagenhoff

Looks like some large hail on that cell as well. Getting some radar scatter

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mcd0394_full.png

 

Mesoscale Discussion 0394
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1251 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

   Areas affected...far northern MO...southern IA

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 93...

   Valid 311751Z - 311915Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 93 continues.

   SUMMARY...Tornado potential will likely increase through 200-230pm
   CDT.  Large to very large hail (2-3 inches diameter) is possible
   with the more intense supercells.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows explosive supercell development
   across northern MO into southern IA.  Surface temperatures have
   warmed into the low-mid 70s with surface dewpoints in the 60-62 deg
   F range.  The latest RAP forecast soundings show very steep surface
   to 300-mb lapse rates (7.5 deg C/km) with impressive southwesterly
   speed shear with height.  As the supercells mature and the surface
   low deepens through mid afternoon, some backing of near-surface
   winds is expected with low-level hodographs enlarging through 2-3pm.
    As this hodograph change occurs, tornado potential will markedly
   increase.  Very large low-level buoyancy (0-3 km MLCAPE 200-300
   J/kg) and the intensifying low-level mesocyclones will combine to
   support the potential for strong tornadoes with supercells as they
   rapidly move northeast into south-central IA and approach the I-80
   corridor.

   ..Smith.. 03/31/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...
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mcd0395.png

 

Mesoscale Discussion 0395
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1253 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

   Areas affected...portions of southeastern Missouri and southwestern
   Illinois

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 93...94...

   Valid 311753Z - 311930Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 93, 94 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat may gradually increase over the next
   couple of hours as storms in northern AR mature and shift
   northeastward. Strong shear downstream may support the potential for
   strong long-track tornadoes. Additional storms are possible later in
   the day.

   DISCUSSION...As of 1745 UTC, regional radar imagery showed a cluster
   of strong to severe storms exiting northern AR into portions of
   southeastern MO. Likely at the eastern edge of diurnal
   destabilization, these storms have been slowly maturing over the
   last 90 minutes. Already displaying supercell characteristics, these
   storms are expected to move into a destabilizing and strongly
   sheared environment across southeastern MO, southern IL and western
   KY later this afternoon and into the evening. The initial severe
   threat is likely to be large hail as storms may remain slightly
   elevated and the environment destabilizes. As remaining MLCINH is
   eroded, area RAP sounding show the environment becoming potentially
   favorable for significant tornadoes with 0-1 km SRH of 300-500 m2/s2
   and STP values of 4-5. The initial storms may be somewhat slow to
   mature as inhibition is overcome, but multiple rounds of convection
   appear likely with clearing skies and cumulus streets evident on
   visible imagery farther west. HRRR and WOFS guidance show multiple
   supercells with the potential for all hazards through this evening.

   ..Lyons/Hart.. 03/31/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...
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We continue to see SBCAPE outperformance relative to HRRR 1hr forecasts, this time in northern Illinois (over 1500 j/kg near Rockford currently per SPC mesoanalysis, 17z HRRR forecast for 18z had ~1100 to 1200 at most). Undoubtedly thanks to the aforementioned less aggressive cloud cover.

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These storms are firing up on DFW, so the wind shear and helicity is very much there to the point that hook echoes are forming that fast west. Look at the cell with the initital hook above Mesquite. Courtesy of KXAS-TV NBC 5 S-Band Radar.

Screenshot_20230331_142210_Chrome.jpg

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7 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

About to hit the road in Naperville. Late to the game. Somebody who knows what they're doing, tell me where to go. 

Latest NWS Chicago update says you might be able to even sit tight in Naperville now that round 1 is more likely to be surface based FYI

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Just now, Chicago916 said:

Latest NWS Chicago update says you might be able to even sit tight in Naperville now that round 1 is more likely to be surface based FYI

I've been entertaining the idea of just heading farther SW so that I can ride those storms back or bailing head west to catch the second wave

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LOT MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Initial concerns continue to highlight the growing cluster of
convection now crossing from northeast Missouri into west-central
Illinois as of 1pm/18Z. The primary question is now focused on how
far northeast surface-based convection can reach to and then
extend into the forecast area. Latest CAM/WoFs guidance has been
rather consistent with the longevity of more robust convection
lasting through our area for areas south of a line from La Salle
County through the southern Chicago metro. Rapid destabilization
is ongoing through the warm sector given an unusual and unexpected
amount of clearing across much of Illinois with this type of
dynamic system (nearly 70F all the way into the Chicago metro). A
subtle surface moisture discontinuity extending ESE from west
central Illinois has become a bit diffuse early this afternoon,
but is gradually lifting northeast and closing in on our far
southwest CWA. Near term guidance supports a rapid erosion of
MLCIN into the aforementioned area of our CWA concurrent with
convection arriving from the southwest (~3-5pm). Therefore, the
likelihood of true surface-based convection entering our CWA has
increased early this afternoon. Severe weather parameters favor
all severe hazards, including an inherent risk for strong
tornadoes with any fully surface-based supercells. The greatest
risk initially favors into the southwest CWA, but if the storms
can keep pace with the northeast moisture transport, we need to
keep a very close eye into east-central IL through the southern
Chicago metro.
 

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