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Everything posted by Nelson

  1. 2.7" (.27 liquid) yesterday and overnight. 3 day total at 6.6"
  2. Switched over to drizzle now. 35.6F and rising very slowly
  3. 2.3" (on .19 of liquid) yesterday and overnight
  4. MKX LONG TERM... Thursday Night through Saturday...Forecast Confidence is Medium. Models have started to trend toward a stronger deepening low that lifts NE Friday into Saturday. Previous guidance was flatter with the progression and kept some of the precip bottled up further south. This change would favor more precip wrapping into southeastern Wisconsin as the low pushes east. Now with that said, there are still some questions as to whether models have a good handle on the system. The initial low digs into MO/AR Thursday night into Friday and transitions into a closed low over the TN/OH Valleys. Then a second piece of energy digs south and this is what could cause the system to deepen as the two features phase over the OH Valley. The past few systems that have impacted the area have had a similar trend where 2-4 days (where we are currently) out models had more significant phasing and stronger lows which bumped up QPF totals. Then as you got closer in the 1-2 day period they backed off and QPF amounts trended back down. This has largely been the result of models inability to handle the phasing of closed lows. Will be keeping a close on eye on how guidance handles these features over the next few model cycles. Subtle adjustments to QPF were made with this forecast and these changes keep us below the 50th percentile for both QPF and Snow amounts. This is likely a good place to be based on the lingering uncertainty. Both GFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance are narrowing in on some of those higher QPF and snow amounts. So, if models hold onto this trend will likely continue to nudge amounts upwards. Another complicating factor is that with the low deepening warmer air gets wrapped in and temps Friday through Saturday could be such that we end up with more of a mix of rain/snow than all snow. The profile aloft is cold enough for all snow but there could be a deep enough layer near the surface to melt some of the snow. Do think models could have a slight warm bias to temps and have nudged values down slightly but this would still support a rain/snow mix. The system exits to the east Friday night into Saturday with light snow ending by Saturday afternoon. Temperatures through the period hold pretty steady around freezing for lows and into the mid 30s for highs.
  5. Northern extent of the 850 temps have trended south, over the past 24 hours, on the GFS. NAM 850s have started trending north. Feels like the WI/IL border will be a good compromise for northern extent of the 850s. 950 temps are slightly warmer. What that means for precip types, who knows.
  6. Weather channel trolling Alek.
  7. 12z GFS trended a little bit south with SLP but 850 temps crept north a bit (slightly stronger?).
  8. It's going to rain in CHI for the rest of the winter. You should just make calls for Madison from here on out
  9. It sure seems like the early GFS ideas of a more SE/weaker track is going to win out. It would appear that my "Euro is king" call, along with the NW trend, was premature. Overall, models were pretty disappointing for this storm. Feel bad for the NWS offices that will take the brunt of the criticism from the less meteorologically educated public.
  10. Moderate snow now. Pushing 2 inches. Radar looking decent but cutoff isn't too far away. Model trends are not good this evening for round 2 IMBY.
  11. I was out and about, a little bit ago, and it was solid rain and 27F (truck thermo) about 3 miles south of my house.
  12. Started with a little freezing rain here - Now mixing with snow. 30F and falling.
  13. Gotta ride the taint to get the best accums. Feeling good about my MBY - may have to deal with some "taint" but we should be close to some of the higher accums. Unfortunate how far off the GFS was with this in the 72+ range - never good when the NAM locks on to something in the long term first. Euro retains it title and the NW trend is back.
  14. Also, with that look, and the agreement (which is a small feat in and of itself), something is going to pop. It may be too far west for most of us to care but it's something.
  15. Outside of the western portion of the MW, probably... but it's sooooo boring otherwise. I get pleasure in showing the trough slowly nudging east.
  16. Inching toward a better look over the last day or so. The western trough has been moving ever so slightly to the East each run.
  17. Hopefully the agreement in the 8-10 is a sign that things are settling down a little bit and we will have some better model handling in the long range. Doesn't look good in the 8-10 but maybe some signs of life after that if we can get that ridge to slide east.
  18. No bueno (if you like snow). At least there is some agreement.
  19. Certainly when it comes to 4+ days out, it's the way to go. Folks would be a lot less stressed out if they followed this advice.
  20. Gonna need to get this resolved before placing any bets.