Nelson

Snow has ended here. Measured 6.7" here west of Madison. Agree with Cyclone, winds didn't quite materialize out this way - seems like areas east of here saw the higher sustained winds and gusts. Very happy with the outcome - local forecast of 5-9" was spot on. Good way to end what was otherwise a pretty boring winter.

Models were picking up on the precip lull earlier today. Watch a regional radar and you will see that things are starting to fill in. From MKX: As precip continues to shift east, attention will turn westward toward the precip responsible for phase three of the event. Due to a lack of deeper lift & some lingering dry air aloft, a precip lull continues in locations west of a Monroe-Madison-Fond du Lac line. Anticipate that this lull will continue through mid-evening (~8 PM), prior to filling in as an upper wave & affiliated deformation zone move in during the mid-evening hours. Still anticipate the development of moderate to heavy snow along the deformation band, with enhanced rates continuing into the early morning hours Monday. Will continue to monitor observational & model trends through mid-evening and provide additional updates as necessary.

We've got some decent icing on trees/raised surfaces. Temp down to 31F now. Thinking the next batch of precip moving in from S/SW should be snow. Well ahead of schedule (per models).

That's what I was thinking however we did just jump to 33F here west of Madison. Reports of snow just to my NW.

Temp holding steady at 32F here. A light glaze on above ground surfaces and had some pea size hail earlier. Watching reports out to the west, waiting for switchover later this afternoon.

Just happy that it looks like that western ridge is finally going to break down/back the f off into the Pacific and give us some chances. I'll take that over the sh*t we've been dealing with.

All of the ensembles are pretty disheartening for any type of change away from the position of that western ridge - That look has been so f'ing persistent...

Doesn't look like we are going to shake this northwest flow (west ridge) any time soon

I see what you did there...

Hoping the end of run look on the ensembles continues and we can get that big a** ridge to move east - set up for cutter season.

Good luck to everyone in the potential path - rooting for a historic event

This is wild As a result, the expectation is for the lake effect snow bands to be unusually intense with peak snow rates of 3 to locally 5 inches per hour, frequent lightning and thunder, and pockets of hail.

You need to find a new hobby...... Your posts are pretty annoying and don't contribute anything to this board.

Had 1/2” hail here with a cell that formed right overhead. .

Ended up with 4.4" here on the west side of Madison. Pretty close to expectation - thought we might push 5-6" with how much it lingered.

Barely paying attention until I see one of them chime in... This bullshit isn't helping.

Keep hope alive bro...

came here to say this...

Running about as expected here. Guessing 6-7" so far (hard to measure at this point). Might make double digits if this afternoon can produce.

9.9" for mby to get us over 20" for the week.....

Obviously, lot of debating of finer details but at a higher level view, I think the GEFS and EPS ensemble means have been pretty consistent.

**edit** just saw we pulled the trigger on a thread. I like it. Obviously would be tits if we got back to back 6+' storms (in my neck of the woods) but long ways to go yet on the weekend system. Lot of spread on the GFS ENS. Don't mind the EPS look at this point. Also, lots of talk about how the ECMWF has been shit as of late but does anyone have verification stats to back that up (I'm too lazy to look)? Seems like it was pretty consistent at range with the early week system vs the GFS.

Ride the ENS....

GEFS has been fairly consistent with the mean low track over the past few runs. As always, ENS are really the only thing to be seriously watching at this range.