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The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket


Ginx snewx
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19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This could still track anywhere but I do like the interior zones at the moment. Not a good high pressure setup for the coast. Though once it nukes out the snow line would prob collapse SE to the coast on a favorable track…we’ll see what today brings. 

I feel like I will be near the line.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS has been pretty consistent considering the lead time. 
 

 

90DA3918-993A-4DD2-B9BE-039B0E8D45EF.png

It actually was more aggressive ... but latter timing.  The 12z blend is 998-ish...  this 00z was < 994 but some 12 hours later. 

The blend also hints at a capture scenario ... you can sense that in the loop as a low hesitation after attempting a dove tail motion toward a more N direciton leading -

Just some details I noticed... It's a higher implication totality

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5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Wouldn't anyone outside of C/NNE and far interior see mostly rain anyway. There's not much cold around. 

I know our region has no shot 

a bit pessimistic considering such a dynamic system at day 6 lmao this has a lot of potential given the amount of energy being dumped into the trough

but that's the tenor of the year, I suppose

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-vort500_z500-8773600.thumb.png.fa229785f2a1a1b9f653085005c18bcd.png

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2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

a bit pessimistic considering such a dynamic system at day 6 lmao this has a lot of potential given the amount of energy being dumped into the trough

but that's the tenor of the year, I suppose

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-vort500_z500-8773600.thumb.png.fa229785f2a1a1b9f653085005c18bcd.png

I’d like to see the ULL center further southeast. Sitting there in between Lake Erie and Huron isn’t ideal for coastal plain folks…caveat is that you have that leading vortmax become strong enough to really render the western ULL irrelevant…but in those scenarios I don’t think you’d get the classic capture until well later. 

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10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

We are now getting within day 5 on todays runs with starting impacts and redevelopment off the coast.. Storm likely somewhere.. Hopefully we can start zoning in on a general idea over the next 24 hours of runs.. 

For my part, I have no interest in a 5-10” deal at this point. I’d rather get blanked and claim a futility record, thereby setting a very low hurdle for future years to surmount. A 20”+ deal is a different matter though. Back up the truck for that. 

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Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Wouldn't anyone outside of C/NNE and far interior see mostly rain anyway. There's not much cold around. 

I know our region has no shot 

Agreed on the lack of cold air being a concern, considering mid March climo as well as some of the guidance running the low inland that being an issue makes sense. This threat definitely favors interior zones, but if the storm is strong enough and stays offshore those of us closer to the coast have a shot as well. The EPS shows this well, it has a mean closer to a foot in interior areas and less but still high (4-8) for areas closer to the coast. That suggests some taint risk, but due to how strong the storm is even areas that don’t stay snow the whole storm could get a decent amount. One of the storms in March 2018 was like that, interior areas got buried with 16+ inches while I got around 8 inches. 

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1 minute ago, Hoth said:

For my part, I have no interest in a 5-10” deal at this point. I’d rather get blanked and claim a futility record, thereby setting a very low hurdle for future years to surmount. A 20”+ deal is a different matter though. Back up the truck for that. 

And 5-10 will likely disappear on the ground about three days later 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’d like to see the ULL center further southeast. Sitting there in between Lake Erie and Huron isn’t ideal for coastal plain folks…caveat is that you have that leading vortmax become strong enough to really render the western ULL irrelevant…but in those scenarios I don’t think you’d get the classic capture until well later. 

I agree... luckily that can be pretty easily remedied by a stronger PNA ridge allowing the NS to dig deeper or just random changes since we're still at Day 6. time is on our side here and the overall setup is quite explosive

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5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I agree... luckily that can be pretty easily remedied by a stronger PNA ridge allowing the NS to dig deeper or just random changes since we're still at Day 6. time is on our side here and the overall setup is quite explosive

A spikier pna ridge though may cause a huggier track but we’ll see. 

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