40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This could still track anywhere but I do like the interior zones at the moment. Not a good high pressure setup for the coast. Though once it nukes out the snow line would prob collapse SE to the coast on a favorable track…we’ll see what today brings. I feel like I will be near the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, dryslot said: All gravy from here on out. May as well turn our area into Soda Springs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: May as well turn our area into Soda Springs. Too bad the gfs couldn’t verify from two days ago because it was heading that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Eps shifted slightly east of 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 9 hours ago, weathafella said: Icon theoretically flips most of us to a big snow event. It’s also a minor leaguer. all synoptic metrics included I consider that run a blue bomb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 We are now getting within day 5 on todays runs with starting impacts and redevelopment off the coast.. Storm likely somewhere.. Hopefully we can start zoning in on a general idea over the next 24 hours of runs.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 EPS has been pretty consistent considering the lead time. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps shifted slightly east of 0z Wouldn't anyone outside of C/NNE and far interior see mostly rain anyway. There's not much cold around. I know our region has no shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS has been pretty consistent considering the lead time. It actually was more aggressive ... but latter timing. The 12z blend is 998-ish... this 00z was < 994 but some 12 hours later. The blend also hints at a capture scenario ... you can sense that in the loop as a low hesitation after attempting a dove tail motion toward a more N direciton leading - Just some details I noticed... It's a higher implication totality 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Wouldn't anyone outside of C/NNE and far interior see mostly rain anyway. There's not much cold around. I know our region has no shot The elephant in the room for many. At least for the beginning part of the storm, even in a favorable track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 EPS has some big hits for everyone .. about 2" for SWCT on the mean for the weekend the rest is Monday Tuesday.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Wouldn't anyone outside of C/NNE and far interior see mostly rain anyway. There's not much cold around. I know our region has no shot a bit pessimistic considering such a dynamic system at day 6 lmao this has a lot of potential given the amount of energy being dumped into the trough but that's the tenor of the year, I suppose 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: The elephant in the room for many. At least for the beginning part of the storm, even in a favorable track. I mean this doesn't look reassuring. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: EPS has some big hits for everyone .. about 2" for SWCT on the mean for the weekend the rest is Monday Tuesday.. I’ll take 47 and call it a winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: a bit pessimistic considering such a dynamic system at day 6 lmao this has a lot of potential given the amount of energy being dumped into the trough but that's the tenor of the year, I suppose I’d like to see the ULL center further southeast. Sitting there in between Lake Erie and Huron isn’t ideal for coastal plain folks…caveat is that you have that leading vortmax become strong enough to really render the western ULL irrelevant…but in those scenarios I don’t think you’d get the classic capture until well later. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Wouldn't anyone outside of C/NNE and far interior see mostly rain anyway. There's not much cold around. I know our region has no shot For what storm ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: We are now getting within day 5 on todays runs with starting impacts and redevelopment off the coast.. Storm likely somewhere.. Hopefully we can start zoning in on a general idea over the next 24 hours of runs.. For my part, I have no interest in a 5-10” deal at this point. I’d rather get blanked and claim a futility record, thereby setting a very low hurdle for future years to surmount. A 20”+ deal is a different matter though. Back up the truck for that. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: For what storm ? The one for early next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Wouldn't anyone outside of C/NNE and far interior see mostly rain anyway. There's not much cold around. I know our region has no shot Agreed on the lack of cold air being a concern, considering mid March climo as well as some of the guidance running the low inland that being an issue makes sense. This threat definitely favors interior zones, but if the storm is strong enough and stays offshore those of us closer to the coast have a shot as well. The EPS shows this well, it has a mean closer to a foot in interior areas and less but still high (4-8) for areas closer to the coast. That suggests some taint risk, but due to how strong the storm is even areas that don’t stay snow the whole storm could get a decent amount. One of the storms in March 2018 was like that, interior areas got buried with 16+ inches while I got around 8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, Hoth said: For my part, I have no interest in a 5-10” deal at this point. I’d rather get blanked and claim a futility record, thereby setting a very low hurdle for future years to surmount. A 20”+ deal is a different matter though. Back up the truck for that. And 5-10 will likely disappear on the ground about three days later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I mean this doesn't look reassuring. It's simple for your area, if the storm is off the coast and the precip is intense enough you WILL snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I’d like to see the ULL center further southeast. Sitting there in between Lake Erie and Huron isn’t ideal for coastal plain folks…caveat is that you have that leading vortmax become strong enough to really render the western ULL irrelevant…but in those scenarios I don’t think you’d get the classic capture until well later. I agree... luckily that can be pretty easily remedied by a stronger PNA ridge allowing the NS to dig deeper or just random changes since we're still at Day 6. time is on our side here and the overall setup is quite explosive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS has been pretty consistent considering the lead time. It has. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: EPS has some big hits for everyone .. about 2" for SWCT on the mean for the weekend the rest is Monday Tuesday.. Favors the interior but a decent amount of spread at d7 to not check the coastal plain into a psyche ward yet. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: And 5-10 will likely disappear on the ground about three HOURS later Fixed your post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It has. Hopefully we can trim away the lows running over Long Island. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I agree... luckily that can be pretty easily remedied by a stronger PNA ridge allowing the NS to dig deeper or just random changes since we're still at Day 6. time is on our side here and the overall setup is quite explosive A spikier pna ridge though may cause a huggier track but we’ll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: A spikier pna ridge though may cause a huggier track but we’ll see. that's the risk you'll have to take IMO. you need as amped as possible in mid-March even if you run the risk of a hugger 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Hopefully we can trim away the lows running over Long Island. It’s fine where it is. If we start trimming those back now then this ends up being another congrats EOR. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: that's the risk you'll have to take IMO. you need as amped as possible in mid-March even if you run the risk of a hugger Oh yea definitely. I prefer a hugger and flirt with fire. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now