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Late February will be rocking. February Long range Discussion thread


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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Why must everyone keep talking about this in the medium/long range thread!?? 

Seems to go like this…

step A someone (often me) makes an observation involving the current pattern that mentions the anomalous warmth and the obvious issue that creates for our snow hopes 

step someone on either side of AGW immediately jumps in. Either to use it to further an AGW case or because they feel the un mutable itch to let us all know it’s not really getting warmer because 300 million years ago it was 2000 degrees.  
 

Imo the problem isn’t A it’s B. A is just observing the reality we’re in right now. B is people who can’t keep their political agenda out of the discussion. We shouldn’t have to ignore temperature which is half the snow equation just because they can’t control themselves. 

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2 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

So, I've seen the headlines about record cold in China. To what extent does Arctic air being dumped on the other side of the globe limit the potential for a cold air mass in NA? And is this driven/predicted by -PNA/ENSO, or other indices? 

Don't forget about record snowfall in Japan too.  I mean after all it is how the cold and warm eddies interact that cause weather correct?

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6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Oy vey this thread is a train wreck. 18Z GFS still has a signal for next Sunday/Monday. That is probably our best chance for a legit storm. Temps should be fine. And it is our prime climo to get hit.

I thought the 18z looked very “good”. It has a vibe that the other runs the past couple of days just didn’t have. Can’t explain why, but it felt good.

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Incredibly stationary distribution of temp anomalies. Despite all of the shuffling in h5, the look over time remains the same.

 

How it started:

854686872_cdas-all-namer-tmp2m_anom_mtd_back-5188000(1).thumb.png.3c7342a4f91d0f7be4a86ec4f0d4ab9f.png

How it's going

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t2m_f_anom_10day-6419200.thumb.png.8238c64b55121ad108aa647ad2031823.png'

Pessimism aside, even in some of our warmest recent Februaries (2017, 2018, 2022), a snow threat or two slipped into the scene, even if they were light events.

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Some interesting looks on the op runs both gfs and euro towards mid-feb.
I know I know, don’t look at op runs past 7 days… but it may be that this warm up may only be temporary and we can sneak in a chance or two before the 20th 

We’re gametime here through mid -March. Worth tracking up to that point.
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7 hours ago, BlizzardNole said:

I went to Steamboat in Feb 1996 back when I used to ski -- I had the epic winter here then went there and saw what 5-6 feet of snow on the ground looks like.  Oh and we had an 8" snow here a couple days before I went and another 8" snow a few days after I got back.  What. A. Winter.

'96 will probably never be topped, in terms of just wall-to-wall winter.

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20 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

'96 will probably never be topped, in terms of just wall-to-wall winter.

I feel real fortunate to have experienced that winter as a teenage kid. That was just awesome. 

Yes I was here for 2009 and the first 2010 storm, but as great as they were, it didn’t feel quite the same as 1996. 

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51 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I feel real fortunate to have experienced that winter as a teenage kid. That was just awesome. 

Yes I was here for 2009 and the first 2010 storm, but as great as they were, it didn’t feel quite the same as 1996. 

96 was just wall to wall.  We had snow in Nov.  We had snow in April.  Obv we had the Blizzard, but there were a TON of other storms.  In the Shenandoah Valley, we got WELL below zero in February (minus teens).  That was winter.

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15 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

96 was just wall to wall.  We had snow in Nov.  We had snow in April.  Obv we had the Blizzard, but there were a TON of other storms.  In the Shenandoah Valley, we got WELL below zero in February (minus teens).  That was winter.

Ya I remember that surprise April snow, too. Almost 6 months of winter. Just incredible. And the February snows were nice frigid and powdery. IAD got down to -10 one morning that month. 

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The big problem is and always has been for 20 years on all the weather boards-when it’s shitty the salvation of a pattern change is Always 15-20 days away.

Delayed but not denied is a Myth; a form of soothing.

Just gotta deal with and accept present moments and circumstances and not get into the trick bag of light at the end of the tunnel.  We had a great cold shot in December but mostly shit since then.  

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43 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

96 was just wall to wall.  We had snow in Nov.  We had snow in April.  Obv we had the Blizzard, but there were a TON of other storms.  In the Shenandoah Valley, we got WELL below zero in February (minus teens).  That was winter.

The cold in the northern plains in 1996 rivaled or surpassed 1994.  In the days of the old wind chill charts we were in the -60 to -80 range.  Just obscene -20 for a high stuff.  https://www.weather.gov/arx/cold_feb96

 

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7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The cold in the northern plains in 1996 rivaled or surpassed 1994.  In the days of the old wind chill charts we were in the -60 to -80 range.  Just obscene -20 for a high stuff.  https://www.weather.gov/arx/cold_feb96

 

Weren't the state records set in MN back in 1996?  I distinctly remember watching coverage of lows in the -60F range.

Edit: and if I click your link I can see that this memory was accurate lol

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56 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

The big problem is and always has been for 20 years on all the weather boards-when it’s shitty the salvation of a pattern change is Always 15-20 days away.

Delayed but not denied is a Myth; a form of soothing.

Just gotta deal with and accept present moments and circumstances and not get into the trick bag of light at the end of the tunnel.  We had a great cold shot in December but mostly shit since then.  

The coldest stretch in our area since 1899 was Feb 15 to Feb 20 2015.  This time period featured several record low min and max temps. This demonstrates that it can still get very cold in our area. 
 

we shroud just focus on the pattern… it definitely will get a lot better for us and I would bet my house that we see a big seasonal snowfall number at some point over the next few years

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5 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

The coldest stretch in our area since 1899 was Feb 15 to Feb 20 2015.  This time period featured several record low min and max temps. This demonstrates that it can still get very cold in our area. 
 

we shroud just focus on the pattern… it definitely will get a lot better for us and I would bet my house that we see a big seasonal snowfall number at some point over the next few years

This year the coldest temps just went to the other side towards siberia. Maybe one of those winters, it will come down our side through canada. 

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29 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Two runs in a row now have an Atlantic Block forming on LR GFS. Blip? Idk, but god we need something to change it up….


.

The problem is its just that, long range. Get that under 5 days and we can talk. With that said it wouldn't suprise me if we follow the more recent winters with a snowy late February/March.

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The latest Ens means in the long range are hinting at an improving pattern beyond mid month, with the AO and NAO trending toward negative and with the TPV back over N Hudson Bay. This look suggests some colder air intrusions would be possible for central and eastern US, as NS disturbances are directed southward in the flow between the EPO ridge and the TPV. A more -NAO might help facilitate getting colder air further southeast/ flattening the ridge along the east coast, somewhat mitigating the -PNA. Always a battle. We really need that ridge south of the Aleutians to not be the predominant feature. Some weakening and a slight shift eastward would improve our prospects.

1676592000-uQeOiNVppqk.png

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48 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The latest Ens means in the long range are hinting at an improving pattern beyond mid month, with the AO and NAO trending toward negative and with the TPV back over N Hudson Bay. This look suggests some colder air intrusions would be possible for central and eastern US, as NS disturbances are directed southward in the flow between the EPO ridge and the TPV. A more -NAO might help facilitate getting colder air further southeast/ flattening the ridge along the east coast, somewhat mitigating the -PNA. Always a battle. We really need that ridge south of the Aleutians to not be the predominant feature. Some weakening and a slight shift eastward would improve our prospects.

1676592000-uQeOiNVppqk.png

If that's an improving pattern I would really hate to see what a worsening pattern would look like. 

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