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Late February will be rocking. February Long range Discussion thread


Ji
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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

This is probably the next (best) low probability, thread the needle shot at something with a transient PNA ridge, and a piece of NS energy that rotates southward around the TPV and into the 50/50 position for a few hours lol.

1676030400-OFv1ir0LyUU.png

 

That's a pretty good looking wave. More ridge-y over the NE than I would like, though... at least we don't see a ridiculous 594dm bahamas high on this run.

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Did you miss the "uncertainty remains high" part? Lol And I scarcely doubt this is some quadruple nina. Someone else can weigh in though. Sounds like we just can't know yet...but I've heard that currently, deep down things are warming. But that's all we know, I think.

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4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Did you miss the "uncertainty remains high" part? Lol And I scarcely doubt this is some quadruple nina. Someone else can weigh in though. Sounds like we just can't know yet...but I've heard that currently, deep down things are warming. But that's all we know, I think.

i mean right now we are closer to a Nina than a Nino lol....i would still take my chance with a neutral over another Nina but its a big ask to go from a moderate Nina to a moderate Nino in 6 months but need to escape whatever this is we are in

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33 minutes ago, Ji said:

i mean right now we are closer to a Nina than a Nino lol....i would still take my chance with a neutral over another Nina but its a big ask to go from a moderate Nina to a moderate Nino in 6 months but need to escape whatever this is we are in

Yeah but are we actually at a moderate nina right now? (Does somebody have the current numbers?)

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

i mean right now we are closer to a Nina than a Nino lol....i would still take my chance with a neutral over another Nina but its a big ask to go from a moderate Nina to a moderate Nino in 6 months but need to escape whatever this is we are in

Why would you take your chances with enso neutral?   They have been our worst enso state the last 30 years.  

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@Ji You can "take your chances" all you want but ill lay down this marker right now... if we do get enso neutral next winter and the north pacific looks anything close to the hot mess it does there on all 3 of those projections...and the Atlantic also continues to be on fire, which every projection I've seen shows.... next year will suck just as much as this one.  This year looked bad but actually had more going for it than next year would if those are the base states.  And no, just because it's been bad and we really want it to snow does not mean next year has to be better. 

Remember last summer I said it looks really bad but still a long ways to go so just hope it changes... that is the same.  That last projection is god awful, just hope it changes which it very well could from this range. 

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12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah but are we actually at a moderate niño right now? (Does somebody have the current numbers?)

Stop... I can tell what is going on... you are placating yourself with the thought that next year is likely to be a nino and it will finally snow and now Ji is posting evidence that bursts that bubble and you are going to find and cling to anything to protect that bubble...but the truth is there is no guaruntee next year is a nino just because of the string of recent Nina's.  Furthermore there is some evidence that the warming pacific might cause increased prevalence of nina.  I have no idea on that, I've read it thats all...but if that is true we might have a nina most of the time.  And a neutral is even worse.  And if a nino is east based with a warm northeast Pac which we have now...those are downright awful also.  Frankly...right now simply playing the odds we have a 75% chance that next year will suck also.  So stop getting your hopes up then freaking out when they get crushed.  Just stop expecting it to snow.  Then when it does be happy instead of constantly having to be emotionally crushed when the 25% chance doesn't happen each year.  

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Ji You can "take your chances" all you want but ill lay down this marker right now... if we do get enso neutral next winter and the north pacific looks anything close to the hot mess it does there on all 3 of those projections...and the Atlantic also continues to be on fire, which every projection I've seen shows.... next year will suck just as much as this one.  This year looked bad but actually had more going for it than next year would if those are the base states.  And no, just because it's been bad and we really want it to snow does not mean next year has to be better. 

Remember last summer I said it looks really bad but still a long ways to go so just hope it changes... that is the same.  That last projection is god awful, just hope it changes which it very well could from this range. 

we havent had many neutral winters according to this chart but some years stand out--

 

13-14

14-15

20-21 wasnt bad(that was your blow up winter right where you got 50 and i got 25)

i dont remember 03-04 being horrible especially after 02-03...remember the Dec 2003 noreaster?

 

 

 

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

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22 minutes ago, Ji said:

we havent had many neutral winters according to this chart but some years stand out--

 

13-14

14-15

20-21 wasnt bad(that was your blow up winter right where you got 50 and i got 25)

i dont remember 03-04 being horrible especially after 02-03...remember the Dec 2003 noreaster?

 

 

 

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

2004 was below avg snow but decent.  But look at the north pac and atlantic SST's that year

2004.png.adc3aefe14fcf45c06a16661cbf01312.png

It had a lot going for it outside the enso state.  And it was coming off an el nino.  

2015 was a weak modoki nino actually.

2015.png.2c4dd98701dd8a899ea50a9d67862d84.png

2014 has been the only good enso neutral winter we have had in the last 30 years.  Other then that have all been pretty bad.  2004 was the next best but again, it had a lot going for it in other areas.  If we get enso neutral with the current north pac and atl base states we will torch all winter.  

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Stop... I can tell what is going on... you are placating yourself with the thought that next year is likely to be a nino and it will finally snow and now Ji is posting evidence that bursts that bubble and you are going to find and cling to anything to protect that bubble...but the truth is there is no guaruntee next year is a nino just because of the string of recent Nina's.  Furthermore there is some evidence that the warming pacific might cause increased prevalence of nina.  I have no idea on that, I've read it thats all...but if that is true we might have a nina most of the time.  And a neutral is even worse.  And if a nino is east based with a warm northeast Pac which we have now...those are downright awful also.  Frankly...right now simply playing the odds we have a 75% chance that next year will suck also.  So stop getting your hopes up then freaking out when they get crushed.  Just stop expecting it to snow.  Then when it does be happy instead of constantly having to be emotionally crushed when the 25% chance doesn't happen each year.  

First of all: Let the record show that I said none of these aspersions this time, and that you bringing them up is distracting the thread. You attempted to read my mind psychoanalyze me (and in this case it was an inaccurate analysis of my current thinking) and basically made the kind post I'm now avoiding making in here. Why are you trying to start something?

My response to Ji was nothing more than exactly what I said. There is uncertainty given how early it is  I have low/no expectations for the enso state as of now, even if it does end up being a niño.

1) It IS early

2) We don't even know if mod niños still work

3) neutrals aren't that good lately so if that's the net result that may not work either. We just don't know because again...it's EARLY

And that is all I meant. The rest you added, lol

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12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

First of all: Let the record state that I said none of these aspersions this time, and that you bringing them up is distracting the thread. You attempted to read my mind psychoanalyze me, and basically made the kind post I'm now avoiding making in here. Why are you trying to start something?

My response to Ji was nothing more than exactly what I said. There is uncertainty given how early it is  I have low/no expectations for the enso state as of now, even if it does end up being a niño.

1) It IS early

2) We don't even know if mod niños still work

3) neutrals aren't that good lately so if that's the net result that may not work either. We just don't know because again...it's EARLY

And that is all I meant. The rest you added, lol

mod ninos will work. Ninos tend to amplify the Pacific Ridge so we would have more PNA. Jan 2016 had a tremendous PNA value......so did 2003, 2010,etc

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Stop... I can tell what is going on... you are placating yourself with the thought that next year is likely to be a nino and it will finally snow and now Ji is posting evidence that bursts that bubble and you are going to find and cling to anything to protect that bubble...but the truth is there is no guaruntee next year is a nino just because of the string of recent Nina's.  Furthermore there is some evidence that the warming pacific might cause increased prevalence of nina.  I have no idea on that, I've read it thats all...but if that is true we might have a nina most of the time.  And a neutral is even worse.  And if a nino is east based with a warm northeast Pac which we have now...those are downright awful also.  Frankly...right now simply playing the odds we have a 75% chance that next year will suck also.  So stop getting your hopes up then freaking out when they get crushed.  Just stop expecting it to snow.  Then when it does be happy instead of constantly having to be emotionally crushed when the 25% chance doesn't happen each year.  

You should probably move.

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lmao now we're getting into whether Ninos lead to +PNAs anymore? come on.

the tropical forcing is in a different spot and encourages the Aleutian ridging that we see in Ninas to move farther E. this is also why "good" MJO phases often occur more in Ninos, since they positively feed back... instead of in Ninas where the waves suddenly die once close to Phase 8

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41 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

First of all: Let the record state that I said none of these aspersions this time, and that you bringing them up is distracting the thread. You attempted to read my mind psychoanalyze me (and in this case it was an inaccurate analysis of my state of mind) and basically made the kind post I'm now avoiding making in here. Why are you trying to start something?

My response to Ji was nothing more than exactly what I said. There is uncertainty given how early it is  I have low/no expectations for the enso state as of now, even if it does end up being a niño.

1) It IS early

2) We don't even know if mod niños still work

3) neutrals aren't that good lately so if that's the net result that may not work either. We just don't know because again...it's EARLY

And that is all I meant. The rest you added, lol

K

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