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Jan 25 2023 Three-fer fer some...


HoarfrostHubb
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41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

For once.. can’t find anything to disagree with Stein about .

 

Sell this fast.

Early precip looks like weak overrunning warm front. Poor airmass, weak storm. Not much in the way of isentropic lift. Also, I see east winds keeping temps/dews >32 from eastern SNE up to coastal York ME. Sell any 3"+ amounts south of Concord NH. 1" for my hood, is my guess, before the flip.

 

 

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Seeing as snow is a 'non-zero' level for concern ...

...it seems to me just observing the rad layout over the past several hours, this event is so far west that this initial WAA burst is also too far west to be significant here.  It seems the NAM runs that were aggressive in this first sort of pulse ( presently snowing west ) might have been too far E with placement -

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Seeing as snow is a 'non-zero' level for concern ...

...it seems to me just observing the rad layout over the past several hours, this event is so far west that this initial WAA burst is also too far west to be significant here.  It seems the NAM runs that were aggressive in this first sort of pulse ( presently snowing west ) might have been too far E with placement -

Yep, I mentioned this several times in the past couple of days....the vort is just too far west for the classic big thump on the front end....this will be more like a steady light snow that flips after an inch or two. Slight chance at something more if those beefier echoes move in just in time a couple hours before the flip, but I wouldn't count on it in our area. Further north they'll have that chance.

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