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Jan 25 2023 Three-fer fer some...


HoarfrostHubb
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43 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Might need to get up 1am thurs to snowblow before the sleet/rn move in. Waiting till 6am or so may be brutal to get off the driveway.

The hi-res models are showing snow a few hours later than others. Factor in they, especially the 3km NAM, can have a warm bias, and Gray's mention of cold air holding on in yesterday's statement, I wouldn't be surprised if the snow holds on later than predicted and only the very end of the storm is rain for the interior. 

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23 minutes ago, dryslot said:

1-2"/hr+ rates again like yesterday and i'm usually far enough to NW of it to cash.

You’ve been in the crosshairs of late. Good for you. Nothing here…tough being left out. You’ll be able to ride from home if this pounds you guys. 
 

We were gonna leave tomorrow morning for St Agatha, but decided to push it out to Friday morning, to better take advantage of the big dump up In Aroostook of 12-18”. We should have superb conditions Friday-Tuesday. Looking forward to it. 

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This makes me all warm and fuzzy.

Then as we get into the daytime hours on Thursday, the flow turns
westerly again and with the Froude Number rising above 1, the flow
becomes critical with several inches more of upslope snow favoring
the Green Mountain spine, Jay, Stowe, Waterbury and portions of NEK.
Winds will also pick up from the west and northwest, gusting 30 mph
at times including in the Champlain Valley.
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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You’ve been in the crosshairs of late. Good for you. Nothing here…tough being left out. You’ll be able to ride from home if this pounds you guys. 
 

We were gonna leave tomorrow morning for St Agatha, but decided to push it out to Friday morning, to better take advantage of the big dump up In Aroostook of 12-18”. We should have superb conditions Friday-Tuesday. Looking forward to it. 

Yes, Thanks, Conditions will be good statewide, I won't ride from here though, Water bars and our trail system crosses a lot of bogs, Ponds and Lakes, No thanks, Was going to go up this weekend but i have a funeral to attend on Saturday.

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You’ve been in the crosshairs of late. Good for you. Nothing here…tough being left out. You’ll be able to ride from home if this pounds you guys. 
 

We were gonna leave tomorrow morning for St Agatha, but decided to push it out to Friday morning, to better take advantage of the big dump up In Aroostook of 12-18”. We should have superb conditions Friday-Tuesday. Looking forward to it. 

CNE/NNE got their mojo back AWT in this pattern. Hopefully SNE can get going a bit here in the next couple weeks. 

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7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You’ve been in the crosshairs of late. Good for you. Nothing here…tough being left out. You’ll be able to ride from home if this pounds you guys. 
 

We were gonna leave tomorrow morning for St Agatha, but decided to push it out to Friday morning, to better take advantage of the big dump up In Aroostook of 12-18”. We should have superb conditions Friday-Tuesday. Looking forward to it. 

How deep is the pack up there Wolfie?

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2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

How deep is the pack up there Wolfie?

It’ll be up there after this Thursday’s burying. They got 20-24” a week and a half ago, a few inches in between since, no real melting(just compaction),and then this 12-18” coming. So probably be close to 40”.  It’ll be nice. 

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1 hour ago, PowderBeard said:

The hi-res models are showing snow a few hours later than others. Factor in they, especially the 3km NAM, can have a warm bias, and Gray's mention of cold air holding on in yesterday's statement, I wouldn't be surprised if the snow holds on later than predicted and only the very end of the storm is rain for the interior. 

Climo agrees. 

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42 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yes, Thanks, Conditions will be good statewide, I won't ride from here though, Water bars and our trail system crosses a lot of bogs, Ponds and Lakes, No thanks, Was going to go up this weekend but i have a funeral to attend on Saturday.

Ya I may have jumped the gun with remark yesterday about southern areas opening up systems. Even the clubs here are limited in what they can groom because ground is soft and water bars are everywhere. 

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4 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Ya I may have jumped the gun with remark yesterday about southern areas opening up systems. Even the clubs here are limited in what they can groom because ground is soft and water bars are everywhere. 

There's not a lot of frost in the ground, And ice conditions are treacherous at best.

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51 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This makes me all warm and fuzzy.

Then as we get into the daytime hours on Thursday, the flow turns
westerly again and with the Froude Number rising above 1, the flow
becomes critical with several inches more of upslope snow favoring
the Green Mountain spine, Jay, Stowe, Waterbury and portions of NEK.
Winds will also pick up from the west and northwest, gusting 30 mph
at times including in the Champlain Valley.

The upslope machine has really been missing this winter for you guys. This system looks really good for northern areas of the spine from bush/Mrg to points north. 

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2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Excited for NYC to break their all time record. Hopefully they don't get 0.1 tomorrow, that would suck.

01_24.23_jdj_tri_state_snowfall_forecast_update.thumb.jpg.22ee72db3a64e9d6c629ef5c64abfef4.jpg

 

There has to be some consolation for this unmitigated disaster. 

I average probably 33-34"/winter and am sitting at 0.5" which was gone in less than an hour in Dec. Yesterday when the high fives were flying for many of you, so were my white rain-flakes for an hour. This isn't a great place for winter by any means but there should at least be a few half decent events per season. 

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5 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

The upslope machine has really been missing this winter for you guys. This system looks really good for northern areas of the spine from bush/Mrg to points north. 

Yup we’ve started seeing it now since the snow started back up.  Accumulations each day this week.  Another 3” at the ski area since this morning, 4” past 24 hours.

That’s the stuff that’s been missing.  The weak frontal passages or squalls.  The 3” on days when snow showers are forecast.

We are back in it, with synoptic systems and upslope filling in between that.

3FBF2B1B-A54B-45E1-B5A0-950DE7ECB76B.jpeg.dcc7bfbd94058b1a5bfe4db976fb2a62.jpeg

 

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4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

There has to be some consolation for this unmitigated disaster. 

I average probably 33-34"/winter and am sitting at 0.5" which was gone in less than an hour in Dec. Yesterday when the high fives were flying for many of you, so were my white rain-flakes for an hour. This isn't a great place for winter by any means but there should at least be a few half decent events per season. 

33/34” isn’t bad for Long Island. More than a lot of immediate ct shore 

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Thinking lower end of this will verify. If the lower end does verify 99% of CTs population will endure their least snowy January ever. Congrats. Kinda excited for MJO and Brooklyn on their potential for a record in futility if they don’t get .1” tomorrow. We rat on! Enjoy up North! 
4841EF8C-611B-4777-86CF-54ABFE4B95A0.thumb.jpeg.acc4df092316bff207e45af52a6b8a0d.jpeg

Damn! I got excited with the winter weather advisory from uptown when they said 2-5 this afternoon! Guess it will change! Dang it


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9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yup we’ve started seeing it now since the snow started back up.  Accumulations each day this week.  Another 3” at the ski area since this morning, 4” past 24 hours.

That’s the stuff that’s been missing.  The weak frontal passages or squalls.  The 3” on days when snow showers are forecast.

We are back in it, with synoptic systems and upslope filling in between that.

3FBF2B1B-A54B-45E1-B5A0-950DE7ECB76B.jpeg.dcc7bfbd94058b1a5bfe4db976fb2a62.jpeg

 

That's the same has been missing up in western maine as well, Its the 3 or 4" a day of upslope a few times weekly, When i ride up there and stay a few days, Were into those squalls.

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9 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

33/34” isn’t bad for Long Island. More than a lot of immediate ct shore 

This is kind of a jackpot zone-the north shore from Nassau through much of Suffolk is about the same. Marginal situations usually work out here for an extra inch or two. ISP averages about 32” I think. The south shore and southern NYC are probably mid 20s. 

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