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Jan 25 2023 Three-fer fer some...


HoarfrostHubb
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1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Trees and limbs down all over.. if this doesn't melt today it's going to be bad

You’ve been willing that bad stuff the last couple days…you want snow on snow, that’s what you get. Don’t pretend you don’t love it. We see through the facade. 

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GFS still pretty weak with the thump down here. I’m leaning toward that solution and not really buying the large NAM amounts. There’s just not a lot of vort energy that curls up into us until later when we’re already too warm for snow…and even when that happens, it’s strung out vort energy. 
 

Of we get a slight bump east or a slight increase in confluence, that could change but for now I’m leaning in the 1-3” range. 

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I like 5-8” up here, 8-12” for the mountain.  The upslope signal on backside with some cold moving in looks pretty good.

Snowy day today, another 2” on the mountain and visibilities down to 1 mile in the valley at times with upslope.

In the snow flow.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS still pretty weak with the thump down here. I’m leaning toward that solution and not really buying the large NAM amounts. There’s just not a lot of vort energy that curls up into us until later when we’re already too warm for snow…and even when that happens, it’s strung out vort energy. 
 

Of we get a slight bump east or a slight increase in confluence, that could change but for now I’m leaning in the 1-3” range. 

Both would help many, I've been looking for some of those small changes, So far not the case but the messenger rule may come into play the next 24-30 hrs.

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS still pretty weak with the thump down here. I’m leaning toward that solution and not really buying the large NAM amounts. There’s just not a lot of vort energy that curls up into us until later when we’re already too warm for snow…and even when that happens, it’s strung out vort energy. 
 

Of we get a slight bump east or a slight increase in confluence, that could change but for now I’m leaning in the 1-3” range. 

Seems like most of the mesos are a little better than the gfs, but not like the nam 

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12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS still pretty weak with the thump down here. I’m leaning toward that solution and not really buying the large NAM amounts. There’s just not a lot of vort energy that curls up into us until later when we’re already too warm for snow…and even when that happens, it’s strung out vort energy. 
 

Of we get a slight bump east or a slight increase in confluence, that could change but for now I’m leaning in the 1-3” range. 

Yea, I think 1-3" is the way to go.

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6 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Seems like most of the mesos are a little better than the gfs, but not like the nam 

Yeah HRRR and RGEM were more like 2-4” (maybe a little higher up by you)….There’s some synoptic stuff I don’t love about this one if we’re trying to slam 4-6” in 6-8 hours. Usually want to see a nice broad area of isentropic lift well out ahead and it’s kind of meh…NAM does try for a narrower area and it’s fairly intense, but I hate relying on a thin band. 
 

A little shift east or slight increase I confluence would probably do wonders. 

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2 minutes ago, RDRY said:

They issued a WWA for last storm, when 8+ looked inevitable, which it was. Now they issue a Winter Storm Watch when 4 or less looks inevitable.

Get with it!!

NWS changed there criteria for winter storm warnings for coastal areas and elevations, i Believe its 6"/24 hrs for coastal and just inland and in foothills and higher elevations its 8"/24hr period that it has to fall into to meet warning criteria, Outside of those windows, Its WWA's.

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5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

NWS changed there criteria for winter storm warnings for coastal areas and elevations, i Believe its 6"/24 hrs for coastal and just inland and in foothills and higher elevations its 8"/24hr period that it has to fall into to meet warning criteria, Outside of those windows, Its WWA's.

This is for the Berks (8 for WSW, less if ice is part of forecast, which it's not in this case -- snow to rain).

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3 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

Seems like the main issue with this storm, at least up here, is logistical.  There was a lot of blowing snow last night so the driveway needs to be snowblown again.  That is a long process because it is a long open driveway.  Then we get the dump from probably 5p-midnight?  6-10 inches fast?  Then on top of that, in the middle of the night, sleet and then rain.  Then everything freezes hard Thursday late afternoon evening.  Seems we have to hope most of the snow is done early enough to snowblow it away before the rain comes and then it freezes into chunks.  It is hard to remove slush with a snow blower.  Any sense of how much rain we are getting in different parts of the region?  Maybe we drizzle and slot at least in some places?

In the end we should have a bullet proof pack compressed to 15-20 inches, fields to forest.

Many a night removing snow right before the rains came. Nothing worse than trying to remove waterlogged cement

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS still pretty weak with the thump down here. I’m leaning toward that solution and not really buying the large NAM amounts. There’s just not a lot of vort energy that curls up into us until later when we’re already too warm for snow…and even when that happens, it’s strung out vort energy. 
 

Of we get a slight bump east or a slight increase in confluence, that could change but for now I’m leaning in the 1-3” range. 

Will in his 80s mood 

20230124_112625.jpg

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS still pretty weak with the thump down here. I’m leaning toward that solution and not really buying the large NAM amounts. There’s just not a lot of vort energy that curls up into us until later when we’re already too warm for snow…and even when that happens, it’s strung out vort energy. 
 

Of we get a slight bump east or a slight increase in confluence, that could change but for now I’m leaning in the 1-3” range. 

 

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I think 1-3" is the way to go.

This is what our mets went with pretty much. They did really well in the event yesterday I thought.

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