January 23rd Storm Threat: keeping positive vibes, ending chances of futility

[HIPPYVALLEY]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What is going on , I.e the mechanism for the back side snows of high intensity hanging back so far west 

Yeah, it has decent snows hanging back all the way into Albany after the rains.  I am slightly skeptical but we’ll see.

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not necessarily. Mid levels close off.

Yeah it’s pretty robust aloft. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it’s pretty robust aloft. 

Pretty quick flash over too. Won’t take hours to go NW-SE. 

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

NAM way south   Here is 10:1 clown from 12Z compared to 6Z

Nice.  We won't be seeing 10:1 ratios but that looks good for 2-4 for me I think.

[RDRY]

NAM consistent with several hours of rain through all of western Mass.

[TalcottWx]

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Even though the NAM rains into NH it still drops a couple inches here on front end.  I foresee two rounds of shoveling with this one.  
Snowblower is not fixed yet so I need to decide if I’m calling the plow guy or not.  Shoveling 90’ driveway  of heavy wet snow is not in the best interest of my back. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Thats a ton of precip on the NAM

NAM and Euro are very moist 

[TalcottWx]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Big big winter 

Take them up I think. 

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

NAM way south   Here is 10:1 clown from 12Z compared to 6Z

WAA status quo. Mid levels SE. You could see it happening early on in the run back toward N PA. 

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I was more talking  about tomorrow, but I do know what you mean. You wonder if the lower levels are modeled a little warm by a few degrees. That typically can/does happen, but lately hasn’t really materialized due to the lack of cold. 

yeah, ..just trying to raise awareness - we may be a bit rusty on these environmental feed-back headaches. 

I'm wonder if some of the 'rain' along Rt 2 converts to ZR prior to the column collapse snow burst tomorrow afternoon, and that could creep down eastern flank of Worcester/Watchusetts spine

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Take them up I think. 

Maybe even take them off?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not necessarily. Mid levels close off.

I’m sure the close off won’t be enough here, regardless. Next 

[DJln491]

Curious to see what 12z gfs does.  6z was very much SE

[wx2fish]

3k looks maybe a hair colder on the front end, then a big finish

[Typhoon Tip]

Not to poke the hornet's nest but this sorta feels like a 'when does the dam break' scenario. 

We keep seeing these models edging the big deal, and falling short ...but the next series seems to look a little closer to doing that - ... maybe they'll fight to hold back the inevitable right into now-cast when Springfield Mass is in 1/4 mi vis  5::1 pillows falling or something like that...  Talking phase 1.  I mean I'm not forecasting that, but like Will being spooked about positive busts... it does kinda sorta head scratch a last minute cave.

Phase 2 tomorrow, I've never been a fan of the old backlash - too many sorted memories of TV mets in the 1980s.  However, it occurs to me that this situation isn't quite a backlash scenario.  What is actually happening ( synoptic evolution ) is that the models are early in triggering a "main low" along the baroclinic axis as it cross the NJ shore and races by the Islands... The mid level ( 700 to 400 mb) jet mechanics are actually still way the hell and gone back SW ...and as that intense max wind core torpedos by ( 2deg lat S of the Pike and right on climate btw!), physics take over and column goes unstable over the top of a near fully saturated column.  The resulting UVM is over a large area because all of that is spatially largely taking place aloft. And thus establishes cyclonic curvature ... back along/under the N exit-entrance relay of the jet maxing.  

In other words, that's not a backlash scenario.  I don't know what we call that... it's like a smeared out coastal that is trying (the models) to disconnect the WAA phase from a more proper Norwegian cyclone model cross-section.

Thank you - I enjoyed typing this ... despite not many understanding wtf it means.   

Back to the original sentiment.  Phase 1 and 2 being sort of separate chapters in this story, I could picture both just finally going colder.  It seems the correction vectoring has been pointed there and these runs are holding back that weight.  So this part is less analytic and more angels on shoulders I guess.

[TalcottWx]

Wow. Peter was deleted. What does he do for a living? 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Wow. Peter was deleted. What does he do for a living? 

Nobody that is respectable would get the reference lol. 

[mahk_webstah]

Man, if you look at that radar presentation, you think Secs or Mecs from Philly North. Much better radar presentation than the other day. I think this is going to over perform.
 

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

3k looks maybe a hair colder on the front end, then a big finish

Cream on the crops?

[Great Snow 1717]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to poke the hornet's nest but this sorta feels like a 'when does the dam break' scenario. 

We keep seeing these models edging the big deal, and falling short ...but the next series seems to look a little closer to doing that - ... maybe they'll fight to hold back the inevitable right into now-cast when Springfield Mass is in 1/4 mi vis  5::1 pillows falling or something like that...  Talking phase 1.  I mean I'm not forecasting that, but like Will being spooked about positive busts... it does kinda sorta head scratch a last minute cave.

Phase 2 tomorrow, I've never been a fan of the old backlash - to many sorted memories of TV mets in the 1980s.  However, it occurs to me that this situation isn't quite a backlash scenario.  What is actually happening ( synoptic evolution ) is that the models are actually early in triggering a "main low" along the baroclinic axis as it cross the NJ shore and races by the Islands... The mid level ( 700 to 400 mb) jet mechanics are actually still way the hell and gone back SW ...and as that intense max wind core torpedos by ( 2deg lat S of the Pike and right on climate btw!), physics take over and column goes unstable over the top of a near fully saturated column and an established cyclonic curvature establish back along the N exit-entrance relay of the jet maxes.  

In other words, that's not a backlash scenario.  I don't know what we call that... it's like a smeared out coastal that is trying (the models) to disconnect the WAA phase from a more proper Norwegian cyclone model cross-section.

Thank you - I enjoyed typing this ... despite not many understanding wtf it means.   

Back to the original sentiment.  Phase 1 and 2 being sort of separate chapters in this story, I could picture both just finally going colder.  It seems the correction vectoring has been pointed there and these runs are holding back that weight.  So this part is less analytic and more angels on shoulders I guess.

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Nobody that is respectable would get the reference lol. 

I'm cultured. 

Going on the record in this one and saying 1-3" forecast needs to come up we will bust high. 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

Man, if you look at that radar presentation, you think Secs or Mecs from Philly North. Much better radar presentation than the other day. I think this is going to over perform.
 

models been increasing qpf since yesterday  this could be good

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Cream on the crops?

Prolly just a D.I.T (dribbler in tolland)

[ineedsnow]

kind of out there but been a long time.. I wonder if we can get a watch out for wednesday while still under a warning tomorrow

[Baroclinic Zone]

We watch in SE MA for crumbs.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Prolly just a D.I.T (dribbler in tolland)

You’re thinking under an inch?

[wx_observer]

Been waiting for snow all freaking winter...and it comes on the one day I don't want it.  

Early AM meeting at school tomorrow--any guess at school cancellations for Worcester?

[mahk_webstah]

where do the midlevels on Monday track, and is it just a ccb, or is there deformation further nw?  In other words, where is the heavy snow on Monday afternoon?

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

where do the midlevels on Monday track, and is it just a ccb, or is there deformation further nw?  In other words, where is the heavy snow on Monday afternoon?

Breath into a paper bag.