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January Mid/Long Range Disco 2


WinterWxLuvr
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9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

So you don’t trust models past day 5 but you trust that a day 8 or 9 depiction of a storm that is not going to deliver snow to be correct?

In a general sense, all of north America has no cold to speak of over the next couple weeks and Canada is well well well above normal. All of that isn't changing dramatically. It's a big problem that will remain. I don't have a clue what will happen in a week but whatever does will have pull a bunch of levers and switches to make it snow. We don't do complicated well and we've been shown regularly how we don't do marginal well and that stat trend is going downhill...

Imo, Terp was simply pointing that piece out and not saying op runs have anything nailed specifically 

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10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The AO is negative now, and forecast to trend towards neutral by mid month. That isn't the issue.

Thanks.  I didn't look at the index before I posted.  That said I have seen info recently about the PV being anomalously strong.  I had though "strong PV" was essentially synonymous "+AO". 

I really enjoy reading your analysis and it helps me learn so much.  Would you have any interest in a brief write-up on the overall NH pattern as it currently is?  I'd like to understand the nature of our current fail pattern.  And by fail I don't mean not getting snow for this or that individual short wave, I mean "no cold air south of Ellesmere island".

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1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

Thanks.  I didn't look at the index before I posted.  That said I have seen info recently about the PV being anomalously strong.  I had though "strong PV" was essentially synonymous "+AO". 

I really enjoy reading your analysis and it helps me learn so much.  Would you have any interest in a brief write-up on the overall NH pattern as it currently is?  I'd like to understand the nature of our current fail pattern.  And by fail I don't mean not getting snow for this or that individual short wave, I mean "no cold air south of Ellesmere island".

It's actually pretty simple. With the pattern in place, the flow off the Pacific continues to be strong, and is essentially overwhelming other factors. Canada is flooded with relatively mild air. The pattern is a progressive one(no atmospheric blocking in the NA), so the only way to get enough of the already modified cold from up there to down here relies on a well timed, perfectly positioned, but transient NS vortex passing through or near the 50-50 region.

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1 minute ago, DE2PA said:

I see we’ve gone from mildly optimistic to full blown cliff jumping over night.

This would be much more palatable if we we’re trying to will an MA snowstorm in April rather than January.

We have had a 'bad' set of runs, which ultimately determines nothing. We also know the current pattern is problematic(lack of cold, progressive flow), so a lot of elements need to fall in place for this to work out. Still a week out so..

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33 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

So you don’t trust models past day 5 but you trust that a day 8 or 9 depiction of a storm that is not going to deliver snow to be correct?

Bob chill already responded and I don’t have much to add to that.

I was saying that even before this storm showed up on the models I was most concerned about the lack of cold air to begin with. 

I also said a couple days ago that there is only a 24-36 hour window for a storm to happen while the (marginal) cold air is in place to keep it snow. That window I was talking about is with regards to the front runner pieces phasing to form a 50/50 low, and they just miss each other even on the euro. 

So no, I don’t trust the models beyond 5 days, but I do trust the temperature anomaly maps and the trends. 

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10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It's actually pretty simple. With the pattern in place, the flow off the Pacific continues to be strong, and is essentially overwhelming other factors. Canada is flooded with relatively mild air. The pattern is a progressive one(no atmospheric blocking in the NA), so the only way to get enough of the already modified cold from up there to down here relies on a well timed, perfectly positioned, but transient NS vortex passing through or near the 50-50 region.

A strong 50-50 low providing timely confluence and cold air is the most obvious path to a majority frozen event for us. I think 6z gfs teased another path, but one with a lot more difficulty. Guidance has waffled on whether any northern stream energy phases into our big southern stream shortwave. 6z gfs phases it in somewhat late and in a sloppy manner. IF you can get that phase timed just right with just the right low location, it could supply some cold air. But that’s obviously a Hail Mary sort of option. 

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1 hour ago, Steve25 said:

Can someone explain in simple terms where the cold air is for this potential period? I see very very marginal chilly air the next few days, followed by the "red" on the models creeping back in, followed by a slight dip by the marginal blues again, then that storm threat you've been talking about, but with seemingly no significant source of legit cold air anywhere. To my untrained eye, it looks like even with a perfect track, this storm would need to manufacture its own cold air. There also appears to be no semblance of cold air behind this potential.  

I'm just looking at the models and having trouble seeing the potential that's being hyped up without a legitimate source of cold air. 

 

Been saying since around Christmas especially in the PHL forum, it is going to take a while for our cold air source to reestablish itself to our North given the PAC firehose. This weekend was always the transition but it usually takes a lag of 1-2 more weeks to get Canada where we want to see. At least in my experience. Was hopeful by mid month we would be there but obviously looking at ens mean temp departures we are still working towards that goal by next weekend....not quite in time to. Things are still too marginal. Yes, the can keeps getting kicked. Nothing we can do but hope by 3rd week we are back into a more normalized or BN temp look up top. Cold is and always has been the first ingredient needed, period. Marginal can work during prime climo but it is a thread the needle balancing act.

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10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

We have had a 'bad' set of runs, which ultimately determines nothing. We also know the current pattern is problematic(lack of cold, progressive flow), so a lot of elements need to fall in place for this to work out. Still a week out so..

No doubt. This is why we play the game.

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59 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

In a general sense, all of north America has no cold to speak of over the next couple weeks and Canada is well well well above normal. All of that isn't changing dramatically. It's a big problem that will remain. I don't have a clue what will happen in a week but whatever does will have pull a bunch of levers and switches to make it snow. We don't do complicated well and we've been shown regularly how we don't do marginal well and that stat trend is going downhill...

Imo, Terp was simply pointing that piece out and not saying op runs have anything nailed specifically 

 

29 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Bob chill already responded and I don’t have much to add to that.

I was saying that even before this storm showed up on the models I was most concerned about the lack of cold air to begin with. 

I also said a couple days ago that there is only a 24-36 hour window for a storm to happen while the (marginal) cold air is in place to keep it snow. That window I was talking about is with regards to the front runner pieces phasing to form a 50/50 low, and they just miss each other even on the euro. 

So no, I don’t trust the models beyond 5 days, but I do trust the temperature anomaly maps and the trends. 

Guys my post was tongue in cheek. Guess that didn’t come through. You can’t take any of my posts seriously. I literally don’t care if it snows or not. I’ve been liking the warm weather.

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