WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Started a new thread since the other was 50 pages and we need some new mojo. Also wanted to change the “base state” of the long range thread back to the long range and away from climate discussion. Mods please pin. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Definitely blaming you if this thing goes sideways. 1 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Definitely blaming you if this thing goes sideways. Sideways is the default base state 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 49 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Definitely blaming you if this thing goes sideways. No where to go but up… I mean as in temperatures, 70’s are a breath away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 ICON gets some blue over much of the area Sunday night/overnight. Surface isn’t great but its something to track at least. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Gfs looks nice for the area Saturday evening. Just don't look at ground temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Gotta love January evening/overnight 35 degree snow. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: Gotta love January evening/overnight 35 degree snow. Atleast no sun angle to worry about. What about moon angle? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Gfs looks nice for the area Saturday evening. Just don't look at ground temps. 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: Gotta love January evening/overnight 35 degree snow. Little bit stronger low and a smidge farther south to blunt that weak southerly flow @tombo82685 pointed out yesterday. Plus anything we can do to mitigate that brutal mid January sun angle! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 https://twitter.com/mfdwx/status/1610273350563287040?t=JUjdaVpp4t8Ox1CNMR905w&s=19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Atleast no sun angle to worry about. What about moon angle? Just now, WxUSAF said: Little bit stronger low and a smidge farther south to blunt that weak southerly flow @tombo82685 pointed out yesterday. Plus anything we can do to mitigate that brutal mid January sun angle! Blue is blue...and we will all be up watching it in the porch lights. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Also the GFS looks better for the 10th... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Also the GFS looks better for the 10th... yes. SFC temps suck of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: Also the GFS looks better for the 10th... Blue on blue 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: yes. SFC temps suck of course Mid 30's to the Canadian border. Woof 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: Mid 30's to the Canadian border. Woof Above freezing layer is extremely shallow though which is good news. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, WxUSAF said: Above freezing layer is extremely shallow though which is good news. So, you're saying we have something to track? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I have a hard time believing (based on the GFS OP depiction) that the 10th is snow to rain. Good track, 1039 HP over Ontario… 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: So, you're saying we have something to track? We have something. Not sure how much of a thing, but better than D15 longwave pattern chat. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Above freezing layer is extremely shallow though which is good news. Yes, plenty cold up above it seems. Hopefully it can become 32-33 snow before everything moves out. Still fantasy though but nice to see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I'd much rather be tracking storms than long range patterns, finally something to track/look at lmao 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Already working my magic 2 1 11 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Already working my magic dont get too cocky too soon 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 WB 12Z GFS…weekend flizzard. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 hours ago, stormtracker said: Definitely blaming you if this thing goes sideways. Well as soon as he starts it things turn more blue at 12z...the admirable optimism of @WinterWxLuvr off to a good start 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS…weekend flizzard. surface temps are at or above freezing for most during it, so don't expect much to stick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, mappy said: surface temps are at or above freezing for most during it, so don't expect much to stick I haven't even seen flurries yet. I'll take any pure snow falling at this point. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, Steve25 said: I haven't even seen flurries yet. I'll take any pure snow falling at this point. of course! just didn't want people to think they'd be seeing 2 inches of snow with temps at 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 When do we hoist NAM watches and warnings? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, mappy said: of course! just didn't want people to think they'd be seeing 2 inches of snow with temps at 33 Agreed, but if the GFS can bust by hundreds of miles with any given precip from 5 days out, then it can be off with surface temps by 2 degrees. Of course, that works both ways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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