January Mid/Long Range Disco 2

[Amped]

Time to find a new hobby

[WxWatcher007]

33 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Right in time for Ji vacation



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He likes digital blue more than actual snow so this should work just fine for him.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Rvarookie said:

IMO overall discussion seems much better this year compared to others. Besides @Maestrobjwapanic, I think most folks have been pretty chill considering how shitty things have been

I think most of us "know" and are just trying to keep it light and have some fun with it since things are slow. There are more important things to worry about.

[Ralph Wiggum]

37 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Right in time for Ji vacation



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[Cobalt]

47 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Right in time for Ji vacation



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Would fit remarkably well with what we've seen ever since late Fall, with major -EPO spikes that precede a transient (albeit stout) colder regime in the Midwest/East, taking place every month or so. A similar tanking of the EPO happened close to the 15th back in November, another one near the 18th of December, and now it's plausible that a similar event will take place near the 20th-25th of this month. 

[cbmclean]

49 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Would fit remarkably well with what we've seen ever since late Fall, with major -EPO spikes that precede a transient (albeit stout) colder regime in the Midwest/East, taking place every month or so. A similar tanking of the EPO happened close to the 15th back in November, another one near the 18th of December, and now it's plausible that a similar event will take place near the 20th-25th of this month. 

Wouldn't it be ironic if we had two cold, dry -EPO periods sandwiched around the January Pack Puke warm/moist period.  Good thing for me I also enjoy cold dry weather. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

Would fit remarkably well with what we've seen ever since late Fall, with major -EPO spikes that precede a transient (albeit stout) colder regime in the Midwest/East, taking place every month or so. A similar tanking of the EPO happened close to the 15th back in November, another one near the 18th of December, and now it's plausible that a similar event will take place near the 20th-25th of this month. 

This pattern progression has been right on schedule.

[GramaxRefugee]

1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

Would fit remarkably well with what we've seen ever since late Fall, with major -EPO spikes that precede a transient (albeit stout) colder regime in the Midwest/East, taking place every month or so. A similar tanking of the EPO happened close to the 15th back in November, another one near the 18th of December, and now it's plausible that a similar event will take place near the 20th-25th of this month. 

Hmmm....dude might be onto something. Hafta look for analog. Time will tell

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

This pattern progression has been right on schedule.

We’ll still screw up any opportunities forthcoming 

[wxdude64]

1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

Would fit remarkably well with what we've seen ever since late Fall, with major -EPO spikes that precede a transient (albeit stout) colder regime in the Midwest/East, taking place every month or so. A similar tanking of the EPO happened close to the 15th back in November, another one near the 18th of December, and now it's plausible that a similar event will take place near the 20th-25th of this month. 

There is a reason the saying is 'warm/wet cold/dry, repeat'

[psuhoffman]

6 hours ago, Terpeast said:

All I’m saying is if we get 0 this year, how likely is it we will get 0 again next year? Maybe there’s a first for everything. 

Maybe your expectations are different, but I’d be content with 3”, let alone 7”

It’s not so much expectation as what’s worth getting excited over. I don’t expect it but what I want is what used to be a typical winter prior to 2016.  I’d take a 1999, 2000, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2014, 2015…basically what used to be 70% of our winters. Something like any of those above where it’s cold and snows a reasonable amount would be fine. But if we have to suffer a 0 just to get another one of these recent new normal single digit torch most of the winters no thanks.  It’s all just a different version of crap to me. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

15 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

We’ll still screw up any opportunities forthcoming 

Maybe. Just because it is progressing as the past 2 doesn't mean it will work this time. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

EPS jumped on board with the GEFS. There is support all around for a change for a good pattern progression. LFG!

[TSSN+]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

EPS jumped on board with the GEFS. There is support all around for a change for a good pattern progression. LFG!

 

[Rtd208]

13 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

 

 

[Met1985]

24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

EPS jumped on board with the GEFS. There is support all around for a change for a good pattern progression. LFG!

The eps has had this way before the GEFS.  The CMC ensembles have had this also before the GEFS.

[psuhoffman]

7 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

If we get that tall coupled PNA and EPO ridge, it will build homegrown cold. It’s just physics. No WAA off the PAC coupled with low sun angle and radiating snow cover. Question is how fast and then how long to transport it south. You can probably do some sort of back of the envelope calculation on this… My intuition is something like 4-8 days to regenerate at least normal if not BN temps in central Canada, then another 3-5 days for southward transport. So if that ridge does develop with a trough in the east, maybe 6-7 days at least before you can fully flush the mild air out?

I think you’ve got the likely timeline correct. My concern was based on the last 7 years how often have we been able to build domestic cold?  The rare cold weve had seems to only come from cross polar flow periods. The pac hasn’t backed off for more than a week or two lately making it hard for the homegrown model to work. 
 

But maybe we’ve reached rock bottom. I’ll throw a nugget of optimism out there. Part of my pessimism is that enso neutral and negative winters that start this way tend to be total ratters. But if we were in a Nino I’d be saying “hold the line y’all” and citing all the late flips. A flip to cold late Jan after a dud start is common in ninos. And we’ve been in a very Nino ish pattern for most of the season so maybe this year continues to behave like one. 
 

That’s the best I can do on the hopeium front. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

If I’m not mistaken both the eps and gefs had tremendous looks for next weekends storm. So …

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

If I’m not mistaken both the eps and gefs had tremendous looks for next weekends storm. So …

Yes yes they did

[Solution Man]

6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Yes yes they did

And here we are

[Fozz]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s not so much expectation as what’s worth getting excited over. I don’t expect it but what I want is what used to be a typical winter prior to 2016.  I’d take a 1999, 2000, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2014, 2015…basically what used to be 70% of our winters. Something like any of those above where it’s cold and snows a reasonable amount would be fine. But if we have to suffer a 0 just to get another one of these recent new normal single digit torch most of the winters no thanks.  It’s all just a different version of crap to me. 

Yeah if this is the new normal, then it’s not worth being so invested in this hobby, at least for myself. And the fact that I don’t post here as much as I did in years past is probably a sign of moving on or at least divesting a bit in terms of time and emotions.

I won’t be satisfied with single digit winters, but if that’s what we get then there are plenty of other worthwhile things to do, like swimming or hitting the gym or some other hobby or activity where you can control the outcome. And then for the real diehards there is the option of moving north to a place that gets hundreds of inches, like the infamous PhineasC.

[cbmclean]

20 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

If I’m not mistaken both the eps and gefs had tremendous looks for next weekends storm. So …

I'm not sure they could be called tremendous.  The airmass was always horrible.  But both models "saw" that if everything went exactly right in the best possible way, a nice storm could result. 

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s not so much expectation as what’s worth getting excited over. I don’t expect it but what I want is what used to be a typical winter prior to 2016.  I’d take a 1999, 2000, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2014, 2015…basically what used to be 70% of our winters. Something like any of those above where it’s cold and snows a reasonable amount would be fine. But if we have to suffer a 0 just to get another one of these recent new normal single digit torch most of the winters no thanks.  It’s all just a different version of crap to me. 

Ok. That’s your bar. 

I decided that mine would be one snowfall that at minimum covers the grass. Anything on top of that would be a bonus to me. 

[Ji]

18z gfs 384 setting up for hecs

[Chris78]

 @JiYou'll get a line of Thunderstorms in Florida from the Miller A while we're getting cold smoke up here lol.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

18z gfs 384 setting up for hecs

That would be for sure.  Man if that was the setup for this Tuesday.  Jeez

[psuhoffman]

54 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Ok. That’s your bar. 

I decided that mine would be one snowfall that at minimum covers the grass. Anything on top of that would be a bonus to me. 

Lol. That was my bar when I spend most of a winter in eastern NC 20 years ago. 

[Fozz]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Lol. That was my bar when I spend most of a winter in eastern NC 20 years ago. 

I hope it wasn't 2002-03 (though I think even they got a legit storm in mid January 03).

[Heisy]

18z gfs 384 setting up for hecs

Just think, this time next week the pattern change around 20-21st will only be 6 days away.


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[Rtd208]

58 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Ok. That’s your bar. 

I decided that mine would be one snowfall that at minimum covers the grass. Anything on top of that would be a bonus to me. 

 

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Lol. That was my bar when I spend most of a winter in eastern NC 20 years ago. 

My bar.