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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

He’s exhausted by the awesome pattern that’s always 2 weeks away and or hasn’t produced more than literally 2” of snow this winter?

C'mon man, methuen hit the 4 1/2 inch mark yesterday! .....more than double 2 inches. I even saw a plow driving around methuen!

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3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

The “ice” looked like wet glass. When I drove by a couple of hours later they were gone.  Hopefully they didn’t go through it.  Right off a main road here so not too worried.  
 

But man… why do it?

Exactly. Some people just take risks that do not make any sense at all.  In the Merrimack valley area they could have fished while standing along the banks of a river...and lately I have noticed people doing that.

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GEFS got quite a bit snowier for next Thursday and next weekend.  Snowy signal for both events with a very sharp gradient increasing snow amounts with latitude.  Some things to keep us interested at least until we figure out what happens beyond that with possible trough in west and placement of SE ridge. 

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Significant trend to more suppressed track/Miller B response in this 12z GEF's lends confidence to the operational GFS... GGEM also followed suit

re the 20th.   I don't have a problem with this, given that it is on the interface of the ... a pattern change that is admittedly in trouble, but we are likely to at least register some +PNAP ...if perhaps with a split flow variety.  That combined with a slumping NAO does support a southerly track with that middling S/W ... The event it self might cash in on CC pwat and an over ploduction.ha.  either way, riding flat waves over SE ridging can pay off.

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3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

GEFS got quite a bit snowier for next Thursday and next weekend.  Snowy signal for both events with a very sharp gradient increasing snow amounts with latitude.  Some things to keep us interested at least until we figure out what happens beyond that with possible trough in west and placement of SE ridge. 

 

 

Seems to be unanimous agreement on the 12z runs (still pending Euro) of next Thursday being more favorable than prior runs. We'll see if that sticks....they are all showing some well-timed confluence up north forcing it south of us, which is something we haven't been able to get this winter at all. But sometimes it just take a little good-timing in a crap pattern to get off the mat.

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Seems to be unanimous agreement on the 12z runs (still pending Euro) of next Thursday being more favorable than prior runs. We'll see if that sticks....they are all showing some well-timed confluence up north forcing it south of us, which is something we haven't been able to get this winter at all. But sometimes it just take a little good-timing in a crap pattern to get off the mat.

I just also mentioned ...that's the sneaky type of wave that would overproduce. 

Thinking from memory over the years of modest frontogentically charge mid level collocated over the top of an impressive isentropic lift axis.  Nice leaf expansion on sat.. Those can layout a band of S+ that definitely would not be seen at this range.

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Seems to be unanimous agreement on the 12z runs (still pending Euro) of next Thursday being more favorable than prior runs. We'll see if that sticks....they are all showing some well-timed confluence up north forcing it south of us, which is something we haven't been able to get this winter at all. But sometimes it just take a little good-timing in a crap pattern to get off the mat.

Euro is a cutter 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro hasn't exactly been a beacon of trustworthiness when it's an outlier at day 6-7. I'd rather it show a flatter solution, but it doesn't get the benefit these days.

I would rather see a cutter now on the euro. That huge storm that we had at Christmas. It first showed it as a coastal and then backed it up to a cutter. Let's hope this goes the other way

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro hasn't exactly been a beacon of trustworthiness when it's an outlier at day 6-7. I'd rather it show a flatter solution, but it doesn't get the benefit these days.

It's an extraordinary run to look at... That 144 through 168 is almost comical.   And I'm not even saying it won't happen that way, but at 144 ... you look at the 500 mb isohypses layout out and there is no way the flow across Canada would physically allow a system to cut. 

So the Euro reconstructs the entire circulation manifold ..thus finding a pathway to do so.

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Euro is pretty close though...it just misses the timing on the northern shortwave in Canada....still a good hit for NNE. That system is a pure timing system....it doesn't have this great antecedent airmass or anything like that...its simply "can the main shortwave time itself with the Canadian shortwave so that the resulting confluence can force it underneath SNE"....that's really all we're trying to do here.

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's an extraordinary run to look at... That 144 through 168 is almost comical.   And I'm not even saying it won't happen that way, but at 144 ... you look at the 500 mb isohypses layout out and there is no way the flow across Canada would physically allow a system to cut. 

So the Euro reconstructs the entire circulation manifold ..thus finding a pathway to do so.

Yeah when I was looking at it around 138 hours, I was thinking it might be a decent solution, but then it just kept rolling up into the lakes....it does eventually get forced east, but too late for SNE....big hit for Whites over into Maine

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah when I was looking at it around 138 hours, I was thinking it might be a decent solution, but then it just kept rolling up into the lakes....it does eventually get forced east, but too late for SNE....big hit for Whites over into Maine

I've actually been noticing across all guidance actually. Lately the mid and upper air charts don't lend to very good sfc appeals - but then the surface charts have snow chances. 

I think the pattern change is real...and the models are just fighting desperately to avoid admitting it.  hahaha...   

No but that's not that uncommon with southern height walls while cold loads to the N.  I've seen 10" of snow fall along Rt 2 with 70 F NJ in March.  So long as we're in a spring pattern seemingly eternally..  heh

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro is pretty close though...it just misses the timing on the northern shortwave in Canada....still a good hit for NNE. That system is a pure timing system....it doesn't have this great antecedent airmass or anything like that...its simply "can the main shortwave time itself with the Canadian shortwave so that the resulting confluence can force it underneath SNE"....that's really all we're trying to do here.

Yeah you can see how that would work. Gfs is a nice display of that. 
I share the same caveats with the euro. I just hope this time it continue its struggles. 

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2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I don’t get the GEFS angst.  Sure we risk cutters but we may also cash in.  Canada is frigid and the pattern should be active.  I’ll take the risk over the dogshit we’ve been in for the past few weeks…

If that Greenland ridging is real, that will help. Plenty cold to our north. 
I’m not the biggest fan of that H5 look over the west if that ridging doesn’t not occur. That’s a deep trough. We’ll need some nao help that. Luckily some of the TPV is to our north.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Euro is prob gonna bo boom for the 1/22-23 event. Maybe we can get an 18 year anniversary (can't believe that was 18 years ago, lol)

Damn 18 years ago. 14 here but the drive to the Cape was absolutely insane. Some of my favorite drift pics. Like huge 10 to 15 foot waves with curls. 

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Damn 18 years ago. 14 here but the drive to the Cape was absolutely insane. Some of my favorite drift pics. Like huge 10 to 15 foot waves with curls. 

Yeah dryslot punched into CT and RI but it collapsed SE before making it into most of central and eastern MA. Once in a generation storm for the Cape.

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