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December 2022


dmillz25
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1 hour ago, Eduardo said:

The PAC improvement is what I like most here.  But I f that ends up being a phantom depiction, then it’s gonna be a struggle to get any fun winter wx down to the coast. Except for a few diamonds in the rough (in my lifetime, 95–96 and 10–11), these Niña winters tend to be mostly suckage (and IIRC, the good ones had decent cold in late Nov/early Dec).

Main problem is we have been drooling over the same 11-15 day maps for a week and half now….at some point let’s move it up 

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18 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

 

72F14CB9-7FD3-481F-B269-88D493ADBE77.jpeg

FB698803-CCCA-4B84-B8FE-9588A598DEF9.jpeg

Useless.  Above or below by how much 1 degree?  10 degrees?  I don't disagree with the poster though.  The -NAO and -AO will not cut it alone.  Been saying that for the better part of 10 days now.  So yes it is possible the PNA stays negative and EPO stays positive and S.E. Ridge links up with the block and we get ugatz.  However the target period at least in my mind has always been 12/20 to 12/31 and that is right after time stamp on both these maps.  I agree the 6-10 and 8-14 are going to be above normal.  How much?  My estimate is that the period 12/1 to 12/19 runs about +3.  It is the period after that that still has the potential to deliver some snow and a modest chance to beat the +3 back down so the month finishes close to normal or a tad below.  Should have much better idea once we get to next Monday where this pattern is going.  By that time we'll be within 10 days of 12/20 to the rubber is going to have to start hitting the road.

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After a frosty start, the mercury rose into the upper 40s across much of the region. Meanwhile, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) saw the temperature soar to 40° today. That smashed the December monthly mark of 34°, which was set on December 9, 1932. It also eclipsed the November monthly record of 39° from November 11, 1937.

Much milder conditions will return tomorrow before additional cold air returns.

With the development of an EPO-/AO-/PNA- pattern following a short-lived rebound in the EPO to positive levels, colder air intrusions could again become more frequent toward mid-December. The potential for snowfall could also begin to increase, as well, as a sustained colder pattern begins to develop, but significant snowfall is not likely during the transition to that colder pattern. No severe cold is likely through at least the first three weeks of December. The latest EPS weeklies suggest that near normal to below normal temperatures could prevail during the December 19-26 period.

The latest guidance suggests that the AO could fall to -3.000 or below during the second week of December. Since 1950, there were 24 cases that saw the AO reach -3.000 or below during December. Mean snowfall for those cases was 6.2" (Median: 6.0"). 50% of such cases saw December wind up with 6.0" or more snow (25% saw 10.0" or more). In contrast, during all other December cases, mean December snowfall was 3.5" (Median: 2.5"). In those cases, 21% of years saw December snowfall of 6.0" or more while 8% saw 10.0" or more snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter.

The SOI was +12.66 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.867 today.

On December 3 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.686 (RMM). The December 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.281 (RMM).

 

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GFS still insists we will be lucky to get below 32 before winter starts.        T ranges from 32 to 54 with about 3" of rain( all by the 16th then dry and colder)---that's rain folks! 

1670263200-Ju0nGEVVDNY.png

Probability of any snow  is going bye-bye too:        The slight chance is solely from the 18th:        Was 30% for many runs.

1671645600-wizW7wfPjUg.png

 

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18 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

GFS still insists we will be lucky to get below 32 before winter starts.        T ranges from 32 to 54 with about 3" of rain( all by the 16th then dry and colder)---that's rain folks! 

1670263200-Ju0nGEVVDNY.png

Probability of any snow  is going bye-bye too:        The slight chance is solely from the 18th:        Was 30% for many runs.

1671645600-wizW7wfPjUg.png

 

Thanks for sharing!!!!!!!!!!!

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30 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

GFS still insists we will be lucky to get below 32 before winter starts.        T ranges from 32 to 54 with about 3" of rain( all by the 16th then dry and colder)---that's rain folks! 

1670263200-Ju0nGEVVDNY.png

Probability of any snow  is going bye-bye too:        The slight chance is solely from the 18th:        Was 30% for many runs.

1671645600-wizW7wfPjUg.png

 

Im starting to think it’s right, sadly.

This is looking like a wet and mild stretch through mid month now.

 

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