Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    Total Members
    Most Online
    Newest Member

December 2022


Recommended Posts

Possible analogue would be 1968-69 which turned into a reasonably good winter for snow in parts of the northeast, don't think much happened before late December. It has been extremely cold at my location since that warm spell abruptly ended in late October. I don't think we've had an above normal day since then, and the only precip has been straight snow, no mixed crap like we almost always get around here in Nov-Dec. The end of 1968 into Jan 1969 was equally cold in this region. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

54 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Agree but I think next weekend we will be good

Atlantic blocking is remarkably stable and long lasting

So it's more or less a waiting game for things to improve our west. 

So I'm guessing the system on the 9th gets shredded like Euro & CMC show. Looks like GFS is trending in that direction but it's still something to watch

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, wilsonvoid1 said:

currently 41 and crisp outside of Central Park. Can't wait for some actual snow Imagine one of those storms works out for us the next few weeks, those are sizable storms that could produce pretty good snowstorms. Envisioning it is key!

Wow, it’s 28 here on my Tempest down in my part of Toms River. 

Feels proper wintry, except it’s going to be a warm, wet mess all week. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hey Walt!

Seems to be two schools of thought. One that thinks will improve towards year end when the block retrogrades. The other that seems to believe this rainy, blocky negative PNA look will persist/keep getting delayed.

Me personally, I feel that this does not look anything like 97/98 with a GOA Trough flooding Canada with warmth. I believe we eventually get a couple real good opportunities.

I think so too. Unfortunately we don't know whether they will pan out.  

I prefer the NAO block over Greenland so that we're more certain to have a 50/50 low and imo only, I think we could benefit from a more positive WNA ridge and associated digging short waves that close off vertically to 500MB as they turn newd through the mid Atlantic coast.  

There are many ways to get a big snowstorm. for the coast, but it's early in the season... and SST's are warmer than normal.  Right now, I'd settle for several inches of snow in nw NJ/ne PA Saturday. For a bigger storm, I think we need a much stronger 5H trough OH-TN Valley turning enewd toward Delmarva.  Hints of yes, but certainty--- ????

How often do we see big snowstorms VERIFY within a day, more than 5 days in advance... ?  

We see patterns for big storms 5-8 days in advance but track and ptype usually are uncertain. 



  • Like 8
  • Thanks 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Much milder conditions will return on Tuesday before additional cold air returns.

With the development of an EPO-/AO-/PNA- pattern following a short-lived rebound in the EPO to positive levels, colder air intrusions could again become more frequent toward mid-December. The potential for snowfall could also begin to increase, as well, as a sustained colder pattern begins to develop, but significant snowfall is not likely during the transition to that colder pattern. No severe cold is likely through at least the first three weeks of December.

The latest guidance suggests that the AO could fall to -3.000 or below during the second week of December. Since 1950, there were 24 cases that saw the AO reach -3.000 or below during December. Mean snowfall for those cases was 6.2" (Median: 6.0"). 50% of such cases saw December wind up with 6.0" or more snow (25% saw 10.0" or more). In contrast, during all other December cases, mean December snowfall was 3.5" (Median: 2.5"). In those cases, 21% of years saw December snowfall of 6.0" or more while 8% saw 10.0" or more snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around November 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter.

The SOI was +15.31 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.913 today.

On December 2 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.290 (RMM). The December 1-adjusted amplitude was 0.470 (RMM).


Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
  • Create New...