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December 2022


dmillz25
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Morning thoughts…

Today will partly sunny with near seasonable temperatures. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 46°

Newark: 49°

Philadelphia: 49°

Warmer air will return tomorrow.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 47.4°; 15-Year: 47.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 47.9°; 15-Year: 48.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 49.0°; 15-Year: 49.7°

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Sticking my neck out: GEPS has snow accumulations (snow depth change) as seen on Pivotal. Not posting all the comparative graphics, but unless the stats have changed...CMC #2 in the world... and imo, if the CMC-GEPS doesn't have it, it won't occur (snow).  I think there is a good chance the CMC will verify Fri-Sat with snow PA/nw NJ.

 

 

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8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Does don or anyone know what NYC snowfall is like, coming out of a 4SD -NAO?

The answer for NYC snowfall is that a-3 to -4 SD AO in December depends on the Pacific. We had a 10”+ snowstorm in 2020 with the lowest monthly AO reaching -3.197. But that month featured a strong +PNA. NYC got under 1” in December 2012 with a -3.902 lowest AO reading. The Pacific stayed too hostile with a -PNA. Both years featured a SSW event in January and great February snowstorms. 
 

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii

 

10.5 “ snow in NYC

EF404863-36C8-4E13-A5EB-09A1550F62DF.png.a174b0069e4fed4870c9cbc0977eb5ff.png
 

0.3 snow in NYC

 

B1C845AD-397E-490D-A309-F30926E6A6B9.png.86e4e5aa82b3fbad0c8a4947dec39520.png

 

 

 

 

 

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The next 8 days are averaging  47degs.(45/50) or +8.

Maybe two BN days contained within:

1670220000-Ka6RBwnXcf0.png

 

Reached 47 here yesterday.

Today:   45-48, wind w. to s. to e., variable clouds, 45 tomorrow AM

39*(68%RH)here at 6am.     41* at 9am.        44* at Noon.       47* at 3pm.   Basically still 47* at 8pm.

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8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Actually looks quite wintry outside this AM with lots of frost on the ground. Last night was definitely going cold with the low dews and calm wind. 

The BNL tower thermometer shows how shallow these radiational cooling inversions are. Near 40° at 50m and around 20° at 2m. So go up about 16 stories above the pine barrens and the temperature is similar to the heat island in NYC.


68EE5404-3816-44B8-91C2-92B446CA707E.thumb.jpeg.28d6a066bb727015d7305f1bc47ebbb5.jpeg

 

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2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Yeah but as bluewave notes above we keep slowly pushing back.    Need PAC help or we're just trapping pac polar air right now....

Yeah that will only work late December and Jan. However I believe that late December and January were always the focus.

Don't forget we had a snowstorm in our neck of the woods in December 2012.

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5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Yeah but as bluewave notes above we keep slowly pushing back.    Need PAC help or we're just trapping pac polar air right now....

Pac is important but we can do well without it. Pattern change looks to be coming starting this weekend .

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5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

City east including LI did ok here in December 2012, not a terrible outcome given the crappy PAC.

NJSnow_20121229.png.c501724bc69e53b97136b9634f31bb90.png

NYC got only 0.2” in December 2012 and ISP 0.5”. There was one snow event on the 26th. There were a few inches just west of I-95 and more up in Orange County.

 

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