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December 2022


dmillz25
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EPS looks amazing with a strong WB -NAO as well as a nice -EPO that’ll provide the cold air and strong NS shortwaves

2D7BF560-6740-4809-B982-5532D3284E93.thumb.png.3e031fc415274df087c6284b5e079171.png

we’re going to have to be patient. not much has really changed, as most of the larger chances still likely come after the 15th. not to say that the 12th or so is shot, it’s just gravy compared to the latter half of the month

the blocking is happening, by the way. there’s way too much hemispheric support for it to fail at this point… it’s a common progression from Scandinavia that is also known to start with SE ridging! that’s how these regimes start. just have to let it play out

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9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

taking the under due to climo but I like blocking in Dec-bodes well for add'l blocking later in the season.

I think using CLIMO as a parameter in the likely outcome of any future synoptic setup is totally bogus. I have argued this point for a long time on this board.  Climatology is the result of averaging weather outcomes over local, regional or national/worldwide areas.  Using climatology as a factor in any given synoptic setup is ridiculous in my opinion.  I know many knowledgeable people disagree. 

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19 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS looks amazing with a strong WB -NAO as well as a nice -EPO that’ll provide the cold air and strong NS shortwaves

2D7BF560-6740-4809-B982-5532D3284E93.thumb.png.3e031fc415274df087c6284b5e079171.png

we’re going to have to be patient. not much has really changed, as most of the larger chances still likely come after the 15th. not to say that the 12th or so is shot, it’s just gravy compared to the latter half of the month

the blocking is happening, by the way. there’s way too much hemispheric support for it to fail at this point… it’s a common progression from Scandinavia that is also known to start with SE ridging! that’s how these regimes start. just have to let it play out

Excellent post. Hopefully most will understand it and just sit back and let things unfold. 

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1 hour ago, Rjay said:

I just LibertyBelled all of you

After all these years of knowing what tristate area weather is like, I can't believe so many are ready to jump off the ledge.....do people not realize that this is how our good patterns usually begin-- with models jumping the gun on pattern changes, often by a week or two?  Winter actually begins in the third week of December, so anything before that is a bonus.  This is not a pattern being delayed in the middle of February-- ACTUAL winter hasn't even started yet!

 

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4 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Massive block means little when it links up with the SE ridge and strong negative PNA.  It’s very possible we link up the ridges and can go very above normal for the second half of December

That isn’t possible. Blocking suppresses the SE ridge, what we are seeing is the SE ridge already in place, that’s why the blocking and SE ridge look like they are linked up initially. That’s the beginning of the pattern change, the SE ridge gets beaten down some, not completely but enough for NYC north. In Dec 2010 we had a negative NAO and negative PNA.

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EPS looks amazing with a strong WB -NAO as well as a nice -EPO that’ll provide the cold air and strong NS shortwaves
2D7BF560-6740-4809-B982-5532D3284E93.thumb.png.3e031fc415274df087c6284b5e079171.png
we’re going to have to be patient. not much has really changed, as most of the larger chances still likely come after the 15th. not to say that the 12th or so is shot, it’s just gravy compared to the latter half of the month
the blocking is happening, by the way. there’s way too much hemispheric support for it to fail at this point… it’s a common progression from Scandinavia that is also known to start with SE ridging! that’s how these regimes start. just have to let it play out

Probably setting up for a big storm around the 17th followed by the Christmas week torch that cancels any chance of a White Christmas, just like it happened in 2020
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A system will then bring warmer conditions and rain tomorrow before colder air returns to the region. Rain will likely overspread the region tomorrow morning. Most of the region will likely see 0.25"-0.50" of rain.

With the development of an EPO-/AO-/PNA- pattern, colder air intrusions could become more frequent after the first week of December. The potential for snowfall could also begin to increase especially near or just after mid-month.

The latest guidance suggests that the AO could fall to -3.000 or below during the second week of December. Since 1950, there were 24 cases that saw the AO reach -3.000 or below during December. Mean snowfall for those cases was 6.2" (Median: 6.0"). 50% of such cases saw December wind up with 6.0" or more snow (25% saw 10.0" or more). In contrast, during all other December cases, mean December snowfall was 3.5" (Median: 2.5"). In those cases, 21% of years saw December snowfall of 6.0" or more while 8% saw 10.0" or more snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around November 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter.

The SOI was +15.31 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.351 today.

On November 30 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.954 (RMM). The November 29-adjusted amplitude was 1.223 (RMM).

 

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Humans love to categorize everything. We are compelled to separate things into boxes to understand a complicated world. But in truth, every 500mb height field is unique. There are no true patterns - only a collection of general characteristics that we lump together. I believe we do a disservice to ourselves by obsessing over these "patterns." And if long range 500mb anomaly charts ceased to exist, we would be smarter, happier people :P

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I don't care how good the long range ensembles look. Multiple rain events in December with snow threats pushed out beyond 10-day fantasyland is never a good thing for snow enthusiasts. When the goods are relegated to the distance extended timeframes, there's a reasonable chance they will never come.

Eventually it will snow. But right now I see as many signs to be concerned as to be excited. Hopefully that changes for the better tomorrow.

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