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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The irony in this is that the pattern actually looks pretty good for early December....I wouldn't be shocked if we have a good system pre-Dec 10th. But apparently that isn't good enough....we need to have the once-in-40 year November biggie.

I used to buy it on the line and try to react or respond to these ridiculous comments that seem to always pop up every year around now. I've realized that doesn't really do much lol. Just par for course. Looking forward to what this winter brings regardless of what it is. That's why I come on here every year.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Sometimes a few people get confused and forget that climo in their backyard isn't Rangeley Maine. If we aren't covered with permanent pack by December 1st, we're "Wasting winter".

Right, and the fact the first half of December in SNE (especially coastal areas) is still not that conducive for snow. 

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What blows my mind is you have sno ski from Jersey in here ranting about we’re wasting climo…it’s ridiculous. His climo for snow is later than SNE…I have no idea what he’s talking about? But then again neither does he:axe:
 

Have to agree with Scooter…things are progressing very nicely. Ensembles look pretty decent/to good for beginning of December too..I’m very pleased at the progression.
 

And in case some have forgotten…we had a very nice event in December of ‘20 here in SNE..a foot plus(14-15 inches) for my area.  

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26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

 

This is why I love this forum.....every November....rinse and repeat. :lol:

 

The funny part is if we had gotten a snow event last week, all of these same people would've said "We're wasting a good pattern in November!!!! It's going to turn to crap by mid December!11!!#2!"

 

 

Hope you’re right with the cold snowy December forecast. I’ll remain cautiously optimistic 

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

What blows my mind is you have sno ski from Jersey in here ranting about we’re wasting climo…it’s ridiculous. His climo for snow is later than SNE…I have no idea what he’s talking about? But then again neither does he:axe:
 

Have to agree with Scooter…things are progressing very nicely. Ensembles look pretty decent/to good for beginning of December too..I’m very pleased at the progression.
 

And in case some have forgotten…we had a very nice event in December of ‘20 here in SNE..a foot plus(14-15 inches) for my area.  

I mean we all know things can change or get delayed...but put it this way. I don't see things getting worse as we get closer....the bad patterns seem to do that.

 

I suppose there could be more SE ridging?? But then as you head deeper into the month, that typically means more SWFE. As I said earlier...latitude might be favored, especially early on.

 

I pretty much take any snow prior to 12/15 as a bonus. So for me, I'm just sitting back smiling like Ginxy. 

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8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

You don't think there's a chance it trends stronger as we get closer to December? 

Maybe not Dec 2021 levels but still strong

Somewhat stronger? Maybe.....but the odds of the month working out as poorly as last December with some semblance of high latitude blocking are fairly remote. Don't forget...it wasn't just the record RNA, but it was the fact that its flex was perfectly timed with the flax of the neg NAO, so which created that God awful shredder of a gradient.

The NAO could also trend stronger, or better positioned, too.

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The irony in this is that the pattern actually looks pretty good for early December....I wouldn't be shocked if we have a good system pre-Dec 10th. But apparently that isn't good enough....we need to have the once-in-40 year November biggie.

Yeah, I don't know what some here expect, If most actually checked there climo, They would see Nov snow avg's are next to nill for the majority, So if you get anything its a plus, And some already had some, Its not like you flip a light switch Dec 1st and get buried with snow and you just have system after system come rolling thru every 5 days or so either, All you really want to see is it looks favorable going into Dec for snow and cold and it does right now, So you have to like the chances.

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13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

What blows my mind is you have sno ski from Jersey in here ranting about we’re wasting climo…it’s ridiculous. His climo for snow is later than SNE…I have no idea what he’s talking about? But then again neither does he:axe:
 

Have to agree with Scooter…things are progressing very nicely. Ensembles look pretty decent/to good for beginning of December too..I’m very pleased at the progression.
 

And in case some have forgotten…we had a very nice event in December of ‘20 here in SNE..a foot plus(14-15 inches) for my area.  

I'm used to a crappy decade of December snows so expectations are extremely low every year. The 2000s are a long memory now.

But it's good to see areas to my north cash in early, build up some snow cover, get that colder air in. It doesn't hurt. 

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2 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Christmas Eve was so bad last year my coal had steam coming off it. 

 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Christmas 2020 Grinch was about as bad as they come. Still deep pack 12/24 only to get just slaughtered as Santa came down the chimney. Just an awful disaster. 

I really can't remember another one being so demoralizing after the good start we had and got wiped clean in short order.

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20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Saying that this December look like a copy of December 21 is one of the dumbest things I have ever heard on this forum....stick to fondling your @snowman21 blow-up doll.

Wow...this is a run-of-the-mill RNA regime as currently modeled, which coupled with blocking in the polar domain has been historically one of the most fruit patterns for the northeast in terms of snowfall. Comparing this to last December is akin to (insert moron 5PPD) comparing every snowstorm to the blizzard of '78, or '96.

Did we ever have a negative epo last winter?

1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

Christmas Eve was so bad last year my coal had steam coming off it. 

I get coal every year in my stocking :(

hotdog.jpg.b02e0b7ad7cd5a404d86b4bd9652798e.jpg

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean we all know things can change or get delayed...but put it this way. I don't see things getting worse as we get closer....the bad patterns seem to do that.

 

I suppose there could be more SE ridging?? But then as you head deeper into the month, that typically means more SWFE. As I said earlier...latitude might be favored, especially early on.

 

I pretty much take any snow prior to 12/15 as a bonus. So for me, I'm just sitting back smiling like Ginxy. 

Exactly how I feel...I literally wrote that in my seasonal write up for December.

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2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm used to a crappy decade of December snows so expectations are extremely low every year. The 2000s are a long memory now.

But it's good to see areas to my north cash in early, build up some snow cover, get that colder air in. It doesn't hurt. 

The RNA is riskier where you are, so maybe that is feeding your anxst...but I wouldn't sweat if the neg NAO materializes.

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at my various locales in NH, 11 of the past 16 Novembers have gotten accumulating snow. the average is a little more than 1". so for those of you NOT in NNE, it is unusual for you to see accumulating snow in November. therefore, November is not a winter month.

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3 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

at my various locales in NH, 11 of the past 16 Novembers have gotten accumulating snow. the average is a little more than 1". so for those of you NOT in NNE, it is unusual for you to see accumulating snow in November. therefore, November is not a winter month.

November is typically either "First flakes" or "first measurable" for SNE...the latter being usually over the interior. I think ORH has had something like 60-65% of Novembers seeing measurable snow in the past 30+ years. This year already had 2 inches there, so first measurable is already out of the way.

I'd say for December, typically the interior should see an advisory event by 12/10-12/15....and the coast is maybe a week later on average. Often they get them at the same time, but there are events where it doesn't work like that....Dec 5, 2020 is an example...I think ORH had 9.6" of paste while the coast had an inch of glop. The coast got in on the action in the 12/17/20 storm.

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