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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I love that look....very active.

-PNA/-NAO is one of my favorite patterns provided the PNA isn’t taking a dip on the beaches of Cabo San Lucas. This version on the ensembles is solid. SE ridge is modest with good confluence to our north. 
 

Unfortunately I expect to see plenty of shifts on the ensembles but as long as we keep the Atlantic blocking and avoid full blown AK piggies, I’ll roll the dice. 

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

-PNA/-NAO is one of my favorite patterns provided the PNA isn’t taking a dip on the beaches of Cabo San Lucas. This version on the ensembles is solid. SE ridge is modest with good confluence to our north. 
 

Unfortunately I expect to see plenty of shifts on the ensembles but as long as we keep the Atlantic blocking and avoid full blown AK piggies, I’ll roll the dice. 

Agree.

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59 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Yes exactly. We bought the our house in early September 2019. I remember taking pictures of the house with all the wreaths and decorations. It was that first year. Thanks man!

That was my only significant bday storm in my memory of 75 birthdays.

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11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That was my only significant bday storm in my memory of 75 birthdays.

50 birthdays since moving to Maine and 7.0" in 2001 is tops.  We drove down to CON that day, and that area had 10"+.  Can't recall any b'day snowstorms from my NNJ days, though we had 24" storms on 3/18-19/1956 and 3/20-21/1958.  1st was powder, 2nd was paste.

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Just now, tamarack said:

50 birthdays since moving to Maine and 7.0" in 2001 is tops.  We drove down to CON that day, and that area had 10"+.  Can't recall any b'day snowstorms from my NNJ days, though we had 24" storms on 3/18-19/1956 and 3/20-21/1958.  1st was powder, 2nd was paste.

You have a more favorable date I think.  Mine is a stretch in sne and even less frequent in NNE.   Steve has the best one-2/10.

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49 minutes ago, weathafella said:

You have a more favorable date I think.  Mine is a stretch in sne and even less frequent in NNE.   Steve has the best one-2/10.

I was born April 2nd so not sure I can count the April Fools storm, my father said the day I was born was an ice storm. Maybe why I like winter weather so much.

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30 minutes ago, dryslot said:

To bad the air mass is garbage up here, GFS is turning the weekend system into more of a SWFE for the 28th.

This weekend is also really trending as tho it was heavily a magnification fantasy …seeing some minoring perturbation through the “model horizon lensing”

I mean normally we can assume some 20 or 30% over sell but geesh. Some of these trends are really extrapolating toward less. I think it’s a flat NJ model type low.  Warm version for now ..

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This weekend is also really trending as tho it was heavily a magnification fantasy …seeing some minoring perturbation through the “model horizon lensing”

I mean normally we can assume some 20 or 30% over sell but geesh. Some of these trends are really extrapolating toward less. I think it’s a flat NJ model type low.  Warm version for now ..

Almost looks more appropriate for November now. A cold rain for many on that type of solution where maybe the interior hills in N ORH county and monadnocks end as brief 34F noodles and places like VT/N NH mountains end as 3” of paste. 

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18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This weekend is also really trending as tho it was heavily a magnification fantasy …seeing some minoring perturbation through the “model horizon lensing”

I mean normally we can assume some 20 or 30% over sell but geesh. Some of these trends are really extrapolating toward less. I think it’s a flat NJ model type low.  Warm version for now ..

The bomb scenario that the models had earlier is off the table now as the southern stream s/w gets left behind by all guidance and comes in as two pieces, One with the northern stream as a weak wave on Friday, And the other with the southern stream s/w that was left behind and ejects into the NE off of NJ late weekend.

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5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I did see ice!

This is Cherry Pond in Jefferson NH, picture taken around 2pm on 11/20. I would think with the cold last night and today, the entire pond is likely frozen over. In nearby news from the evening walk, it is cool to see the ice formations already underway on the creeks and tributaries to the Androscoggin River.

cherry pond.jpg

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43 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

with the 50-50 and strength of the western ridge, does that east nao retrograde and bridge the ridges?

I suppose it could, but verbatim it’s not there yet. That’s not the easiest thing to do…..all we need is a little ridging on each side. We don’t necessarily need an Uber ridge from the NPAC to Greenland. 

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Barring the summer-like warmth recently, it seems like things are progressing like a typical mid-late fall would. It's too early for big snow storms despite the model fantasies. I would actually like to see a couple decent rainy nor'easters before we start talking snow. That feels like November. If we can get into a pattern where the storms can develop despite being wet vs. white, it's a harbinger of better things later.

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