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November 2022


Stormlover74
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2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:


Be careful what you wish for if there really is going to be a strong west-based -NAO block. If there is no SE ridge, it’s suppression city

Except there's a fairly noticeable SE ridge. Even the strong -NAO can't hold it down completely. 

This is a great December pattern if it verifies like that but I'm weary this far out. A lot can go wrong 

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the EPS is pretty much a dead ringer to the second half of Dec 2010. make of that what you will

D3B06850-0107-4522-AAE6-43062C8CD86C.thumb.png.5fe29d1c19c52944d11234f256c9aa0e.png1667AEF0-3024-40BF-BA97-1EDFB39F2394.gif.c2dcf8075f20df4f6e1c844e32e5f0f4.gif

i’m also inclined to believe that this anomalous west-based -NAO is legit. it’s well agreed upon on all major ensembles, it’s getting stronger and moving forward in time, and retrograding Scandinavian highs often give us our best blocking patterns. this checks all the boxes

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Except there's a fairly noticeable SE ridge. Even the strong -NAO can't hold it down completely. 

This is a great December pattern if it verifies like that but I'm weary this far out. A lot can go wrong 

Yeah so many times we've seen great looking patterns in the long range, only to see them fall apart as it got closer. Looks great right now, but we have to be a little skeptical at this range. Hopefully this look will hold. 

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2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah so many times we've seen great looking patterns in the long range, only to see them fall apart as it got closer. Looks great right now, but we have to be a little skeptical at this range. Hopefully this look will hold. 

It's not that far off. 

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7 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks for this.

One thing I would like to throw out there is Bridgeport under reports by at least 20%.

So every single town, including Bridgeport itself outside of the Stratfield airport where the measurements are taken, are wayyyyyy higher than the above.

At no point was any town in SW CT lower than 30 for average annual.

BDR records are unfortunately useless :(

For instance I was Living in Norwalk on the coast 2000 through 2010, and only receive 3 winters of less than 36 inches. Eclipsed 40 inches 5 times with one at 67 and one at 52. 

Worst was the blizzard of 1996 where BDR reported 15 while every other town 25 plus. Pathetic on their part.

Sorry to vent, however didn't want viewers to believe that SW CT averaged less snowfall than all surrounding areas :)

 

yeah they are horrible there with snow measurements.  Feb 2013 they do appear to have gotten it right with 30 inches

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Under bright sunshine, the temperature again rose into the middle and upper 50s across the region. Newark reached 60°. Down South, Miami reached 87° for the 11th time this month. That tied the November record, which was set in 1986 and tied in 2015.

Rain will return to the region tomorrow into Monday. Most of the region will see 0.25"-0.75" of rain. There could be some locally higher amounts. Temperatures will remain generally mild. Overall, temperatures will generally be near to above normal through the remainder of November.

New York City will very likely see a November mean temperature of 50° or above for the 21st time and second time in the last three years. A disproportionate share of 50° or warmer November cases has occurred since 2000. Records go back to 1869.

December could start mild. However, with the development of an EPO-/AO-/PNA- pattern, colder air intrusions could become more frequent after the first week of December, should the teleconnection forecast verify and the most common clusters of 500 mb patterns (75% of such cases) develop.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around November 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter.

The SOI was -4.27 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.241 today.

On November 24 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.316 (RMM). The November 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.246 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.8° (2.8° above normal).

 

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11 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

 

Could there be a legitimate reason why this airport under reports by such a large amount? Maybe. One theory is that since this airport is on a peninsula in LI sound that water temps and wind blow-off could affect the totals. 

 

Wind ("blow-off") may be part of that, but very likely there are legit reasons related to water temps, humidity and perhaps other aspects of the micro-climate at BDR.  Snow may not accumulate as efficiently on that little spit, especially in marginal temps.  On the north shore here, I've seen snow melting on the water side of the boardwalk and accumulating on the "inland" side of the boardwalk (Sunken Meadow).  I don't doubt that BDR has made some measuring mistakes over the years (much of the ISP snowfall history before 2004 is bad), but it isn't unreasonable that its long term averages are lower than places very close by.  I wonder if that is the same problem with the old LI Coop at Strongs Neck (aka Setauket Strong) which has over time produced absurdly low averages compared to nearby areas on the north shore.  I used to think the observer(s) just didn't care that much about snowfall, but there may be some legitimacy to it.

Some places just aren't good for collecting local snowfall climo. 

Side note, local average annual snowfall here (Smithtown) 1995-6 through 2020-21 was 38.8" (38.5" at Upton).  Before that the long term average was probably around the low 30's although the 1970s (27.2" at Upton) and 80s (23.9" at Upton) were lower.    I didn't add in 2021-22 yet, but Upton had 30.8" and Smithtown 36.2" so you can shave a tenth or 2 off of the recent averages.

Like the other guy said, we're not going keep increasing snowfall like over the past couple of decades.  Average snowfall in the future could fall back to previous levels (or worse), but the higher snowfall regime has been persistent for a long time despite warmer winters on average.

Sources:

http://www.northshorewx.com/ClimateData/SmithtownDailySnowfall.pdf

https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/monthlysnowfall.htm

 

 

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On 11/8/2022 at 2:49 PM, snowman19 said:

Despite some people saying to ignore the La Niña and that “other drivers will determine this winter’s pattern” La Niña is definitely going to make her presence felt: 

I agree with you completely snowman19, the powerful La Nina is absolutely going to be in the drivers seat and will make its presence felt. Suppression due to a lack of SE ridging is NOT part of Nina climo.

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Snowman19 a month ago: “La Nina will definitely make its presence felt”

Snowman19 now that the models are showing a -NAO La Niña pattern nearly identical to Dec 2010: “If there is no SE ridge suppression is a worry, forget everything I said about La Niña making its presence felt a month ago. Maybe La Niña won’t make its presence felt at all, it could easily morph into an El Niño by mid December to thwart the Nina induced SE ridging!” 

Snowman19 make up your mind! Will the powerful La Nina be a major pattern driver or not? If it will like you said a month ago and we do get a strong -nao, the upcoming pattern will be EXTREMELY favorable for us weenies. For me, I agree with what you said a month ago, and believe the strength of the La Niña will play a big role in our winter pattern. La Niña should NOT be ignored. 

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8 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

much of the ISP snowfall history before 2004 is bad),

They just restored all the missing snowfall before 2004 for Islip. Notice the missing count of days is now 0 for nearly all the years. They quietly did this within the last few months.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30
Missing Count
2022-04-30 37.0 0
2021-04-30 33.5 0
2020-04-30 6.8 0
2019-04-30 12.8 0
2018-04-30 65.9 0
2017-04-30 39.3 0
2016-04-30 41.4 0
2015-04-30 63.7 0
2014-04-30 63.7 0
2013-04-30 46.9 0
2012-04-30 4.7 0
2011-04-30 55.3 0
2010-04-30 53.8 0
2009-04-30 36.2 0
2008-04-30 10.7 0
2007-04-30 9.0 0
2006-04-30 36.0 0
2005-04-30 58.8 0
2004-04-30 41.4 0
2003-04-30 54.6 0
2002-04-30 3.7 1
2001-04-30 38.9 1
2000-04-30 9.0 0
1999-04-30 19.4 0
1998-04-30 2.6 0
1997-04-30 12.4 1
1996-04-30 77.1 0
1995-04-30 5.1 0
1994-04-30 37.1 0
1993-04-30 28.6 0
1992-04-30 13.4 0
1991-04-30 13.8 0
1990-04-30 19.0 0
1989-04-30 19.0 0
1988-04-30 19.5 0
1987-04-30 22.5 0
1986-04-30 15.2 0
1985-04-30 26.9 0
1984-04-30 27.5 0
1983-04-30 31.9 0
1982-04-30 35.4 0
1981-04-30 20.8 0
1980-04-30 9.0 0
1979-04-30 28.1 0
1978-04-30 68.0 0
1977-04-30 28.0 0
1976-04-30 30.2 0
1975-04-30 14.5 0
1974-04-30 34.0 0
1973-04-30 4.5 0
1972-04-30 15.6 0
1971-04-30 18.9 0
1970-04-30 27.0 0
1969-04-30 33.5 0
1968-04-30 22.6 0
1967-04-30 50.8 0
1966-04-30 15.7 0
1965-04-30 39.5 0
1964-04-30 39.7 6


 

 

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Morning thoughts…

Rain will arrive late this morning or early this afternoon. It will be another mild day. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 57°

Newark: 59°

Philadelphia: 60°

It will turn cooler for tomorrow and Tuesday before temperatures rebound.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 50.0°; 15-Year: 50.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 50.7°; 15-Year: 51.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 51.7°; 15-Year: 52.1°

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The last 4 days of November are averaging  48degs.(43/53) or +5.      12 of the next 16 days could reach 50 or more, so forget winter.       Look for accidental cold during the mid-winter period------like the cold you feel when you open the refrigerator door.   LOL

Month to date is    51.4[+2.8].        November should end at    50.9[+2.9].  Top Ten.

Reached 57 here yesterday.

Today:   52-56, wind w. to s. to w-breezy at times, overcast, rain 1pm-10pm., 50 tomorrow AM.

48*(70%RH) here at 6am.     49* at 8am.      50* at 9am.        53* at Noon.         52* at 4pm    but popped back up to 57* at 6pm.      59* at 8pm with fog rolling in.       60* at 9pm, no fog.

HEY!    THERE GOES THE CITRUS CROP!   a 50 degree change from run to run.      This GFS is going to get itself arrested for making bad forecasts.   lol

gfs_T2ma_seus_65.png

 

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Part of that is entertainment for me.

I like the following things here (outside of actual weather and knowledge I discover) for amusement during a chilly and dark time of year:

• Cancelling Winter as early as possible. This year was before Halloween; in 2023, I demand Labor Day. I’m anticipating cancelling the following winter during the current winter by 2029.
• Insults for the sake of insults. It’s like a toxic work environment, but we don’t get paid to put up with it.
• Perfect memes and gifs. (Obviously pronounced like the peanut butter Jif)


.

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1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

The last 4 days of November are averaging  48degs.(43/53) or +5.      12 of the next 16 days could reach 50 or more, so forget winter.       Look for accidental cold during the mid-winter period------like the cold you feel when you open the refrigerator door.   LOL

Month to date is    51.4[+2.8].        November should end at    50.9[+2.9].  Top Ten.

Reached 57 here yesterday.

Today:   52-56, wind w. to s. to w-breezy at times, overcast, rain 1pm-10pm., 50 tomorrow AM.

48*(70%RH) here at 6am.     49* at 8am.      50* at 9am.

HEY!    THERE GOES THE CITRUS CROP!   a 50 degree change from run to run.      This GFS is going to get itself arrested for making bad forecasts.   lol

gfs_T2ma_seus_65.png

 

Look for accidental cold during the mid-winter period”

So winter cxl?

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

They just restored all the missing snowfall before 2004 for Islip. Notice the missing count of days is now 0 for nearly all the years. They quietly did this within the last few months.

 

That's cool, thanks!

Using that data,

30-year averages for ISP:

5/1/1970- 4/30/1999 - 24.2"

5/1/1980- 4/30/2009 - 25.2"

5/1/1990 - 4/30/2019 - 32.5"

Additional:

70s (5/1/69 - 4/30/79) - 26.9"

80s - 22.8"

90s - 22.9"

00s - 29.8"

10s - 40.1"

5/1/1999 - 4/30/22 (2000's) - 35.8"

Prior to 2000 (36 years) - 25.7"

POR (59 years) - 29.7"

 

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19 hours ago, snowman19 said:


Be careful what you wish for if there really is going to be a strong west-based -NAO block. If there is no SE ridge, it’s suppression city

My man, haven’t you been harping about the raging Niña since what feels like forever?  Now you all of a sudden think there’s no tendency for a SE ridge?

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34 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

That's cool, thanks!

Using that data,

30-year averages for ISP:

5/1/1970- 4/30/1999 - 24.2"

5/1/1980- 4/30/2009 - 25.2"

5/1/1990 - 4/30/2019 - 32.5"

Additional:

70s (5/1/69 - 4/30/79) - 26.9"

80s - 22.8"

90s - 22.9"

00s - 29.8"

10s - 40.1"

5/1/1999 - 4/30/22 (2000's) - 35.8"

Prior to 2000 (36 years) - 25.7"

POR (59 years) - 29.7"

 

Record number of 15”+ snowstorms in recent years at Islip.

 

Maximum 3-Day Total Snowfall 
for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Value
Ending Date
Missing Days
1 27.8 2013-02-10 0
-     0
2 25.9 1978-02-08 0
-     0
3 24.9 2015-01-28 0
-     0
4 24.7 2022-01-30 0
-     0
5 23.9 2009-12-21 0
-     0
6 23.7 2016-01-25 0
-     0
      0
      0
7 20.1 1983-02-13 0
-     0
8 19.9 2006-02-13 0
-     0
9 18.4 2018-03-23 0
-     0
10 18.0 2003-02-18 0
11 17.8 1978-01-21 0
-     0
      0
12 17.1 1996-01-09 0
      0
-     0
-     0
13 17.0 1969-02-11 0
-     0
14 17.0 1967-03-23 0
-     0
      0
-     0
      0
15 16.0 2018-01-06 0
-     0
-     0
16 16.0 1982-04-08 0
-     0
-     0
    1 0
17 15.2 2011-01-13 0
-     0

18

15.2 2005-01-24 0
      0
19 15.0 1969-02-09 0
-     0
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