September 2022

[SI Mailman]

there’s a whale in the water at long branch!  wooooow

My dad saw them by Sandy Hook a few weeks ago

[MANDA]

What a snooze fest coming up.  Guess we can look forward to the late week CF and associated cool down and taste of Fall but other than that not much going on.  Fiona looks like a done deal except for Canadian Maritime provinces...maybe.   Satellite pictures mid and late week should be nice to look at as I think this goes to solid cat 3, maybe a bit more.

Not much else to find interest in weather wise over the next 1 - 2 weeks.

[SnoSki14]

59 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

yesterday's euro was showing a severe outbreak thursday. sigh

Thoughts and prayers to your 95+ readings

Maybe in October 

[forkyfork]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Thoughts and prayers to your 95+ readings

many more hot septembers and short torchy winters to come

[lee59]

Very pleasant high of 75. Now back to summer, good for the pool.

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

many more hot septembers and short torchy winters to come

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Thoughts and prayers to your 95+ readings

Maybe in October 

Alot of that was the GFS which always seems hot in the LR in the summer...

[rclab]

3 hours ago, forkyfork said:

many more hot septembers and short torchy winters to come

I can just picture forky joining in at the cauldron in scene one during act 4. As always …..

[Allsnow]

Decent cool shots coming after mid week. The heat might finally be over until next year 

[donsutherland1]

Under bright sunshine, the temperature soared to 75° in New York City. That made for a great opening day for the New York Botanical Garden's fall gourd show. Some photos:

[donsutherland1]

Noticeably warmer air will return tomorrow to close out the weekend and continue into early next week. The potential exists for parts of the region to experience 90° or above temperatures at the height of the warmth. Philadelphia and Newark have the best chance at approaching or reaching 90° during the peak of the warmth. New York City will likely top out in the middle or upper 80s.

In the longer range, there is greater than usual uncertainty, as extratropical Merbok, which pounded the Bering Sea area, could impact the jet stream. Occasionally, such cyclones have set in motion a pattern evolution that has dislodged cold air that pours into the continental U.S. 1-2 weeks later. A classic example from the far more intense Nuri occurred in 2014. Nuri bombed out as it battered the Bering Sea region on November 9. Very cold air moved into the northeastern U.S. starting on November 15. Near record and even some record low temperatures occurred from November 18-22. Merbok will not reach Nuri's intensity, but the scenario of a strong cold shot to close out September and open October is plausible.

In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September. On September 7, Philadelphia picked up 1.22" of rain.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +29.42 today. That broke the daily record of +25.38, which was set in 2010.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.472 today.

On September 15 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.483 (RMM). The September 14-adjusted amplitude was 0.447 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.1° (1.9° above normal).

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly sunny and warm.  High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 85°

Newark: 87°

Philadelphia: 87°

The warmth will peak tomorrow.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 75.6°; 15-Year: 76.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 77.0°; 15-Year: 78.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 78.2°; 15-Year: 79.1°

[TWCCraig]

Off to a smoky start

[MANDA]

14 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Under bright sunshine, the temperature soared to 75° in New York City. That made for a great opening day for the New York Botanical Garden's fall gourd show. Some photos:

Stunning pictures!  Absolutely beautiful!

[winterwarlock]

Lot of clouds around..yuck

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  77degs.(62/77) or +3.

Month to date is  72.6[+1.1].        Should be 71.8[+1.7] by the 26th.

Reached 76 here yesterday.

Today:  81-86, wind e. to se., some clouds, 70 tomorrow AM.

67*(92%RH) here at 7am.    69* at 9am.      70* at 10am.      74* at Noon.        80* at 3pm.         82* at 4pm.     Reached 84* at 5pm.   

[Allsnow]

Looks like Monday will be the warmest of the week. What a change from what was forecasted a few days ago 

[forkyfork]

after the end of the month cool shot the pac pattern cleans out all the cold in canada

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like Monday will be the warmest of the week. What a change from what was forecasted a few days ago 

Slim chance at 90F for warmest spots tomorrow but that's it after that well unless we got some ridiculous October ridge I suppose. 

[SACRUS]

Up to 83 , mily skies and some clouds into NW/NJ.  Slim chances for 90 today.  Ridge centered to far into TX/OK and the Western Atlantic Ridge not ale to link.  Shot at 90s on Mon as others alluded to and i still wouldnt rule out Wed (9/21) or Thu (9/22) pending on the front being a bit warmer then forevcast.  Front comes through and coolest of the season Fri (9/23) - Sun  ( 9/25).  Back to normal Mon (9/26) before end of the month cool pushes in with trough from the GL. Will be interesting to see the extent of the cool down but some hints ridging builds back east by or shortly after the start of next month.

 

[Stormlover74]

Gfs and euro both have a period of rain late Wednesday/Thursday morning

[gravitylover]

It's an awfully warm 82°, feels like 90

[JerseyWx]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Slim chance at 90F for warmest spots tomorrow but that's it after that well unless we got some ridiculous October ridge I suppose. 

Maybe the 90° temps are through, but we don't need that kind of heat to see AN weather anymore.  As we head into fall next week even low 80's are enough for +10 days.

[bluewave]

Classic recurving hurricane hurricane track and cool down that pumps the -NAO later in the week.

 

 

[forkyfork]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Classic recurving hurricane hurricane track and cool down that pumps the -NAO later in the week.

it's an anticyclonic wave break which doesn't pinch off the ridge. so after that ends we get a retrograde pattern and probably more heat beyond day 10

[bluewave]

14 hours ago, forkyfork said:

it's an anticyclonic wave break which doesn't pinch off the ridge. so after that ends we get a retrograde pattern and probably more heat beyond day 10

 

The AWB produces a near record 500mb height anomaly just south of Greenland. So the -NAO could have some lasting power. It could be another case of needing record blocking to get some cooler to closer to normal temperatures around here.

 

[CIK62]

Yep.   Get ready for a see-saw T Regime during the next 15 days.

Today's   14C+ 850mb T and 5700m THK  becomes the 0C and 5445m THK around the 23rd  and then  back up to 19C! 850mb T and 5700m THK again for the first days of October.     Supposedly results in this:       It was 93 in early October 2019.

 

[Dark Star]

On 9/17/2022 at 5:34 PM, Allsnow said:

Decent cool shots coming after mid week. The heat might finally be over until next year 

I think I see the same post every 10 days?

[nycwinter]

third summer peak warmth  will finally be over following the cold front passage later this week

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be a very warm day with temperatures reaching the middle and upper 80s across the region. A few of the hotter spots could hit 90°. Somewhat cooler air will arrive afterward and then a sharp cold shot is likely after midweek.

In the longer range, there remains greater than usual uncertainty, as extratropical Merbok, which pounded the Bering Sea area, could impact the jet stream. Occasionally, such cyclones have set in motion a pattern evolution that has dislodged cold air that pours into the continental U.S. 1-2 weeks later. A classic example from the far more intense Nuri occurred in 2014. Nuri bombed out as it battered the Bering Sea region on November 9. Very cold air moved into the northeastern U.S. starting on November 15. Near record and even some record low temperatures occurred from November 18-22. Merbok will not reach Nuri's intensity, but the scenario of a strong cold shot to close out September and open October is plausible.

In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September. On September 7, Philadelphia picked up 1.22" of rain.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +31.91 today. That broke the daily record of +28.76, which was set in 2013.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.911 today.

On September 16 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.220 (RMM). The September 15-adjusted amplitude was 0.482 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.9° (1.7° above normal).