September 2022

[TriPol]

36 minutes ago, lee59 said:

The last hurricane to take a path up the east coast and strike Long Island was Gloria in 1985. Since then tropical storms have made similar paths but none were classified as hurricanes when they hit our area.

look at the current SST anomaly chart. Interesting….

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, TriPol said:

look at the current SST anomaly chart. Interesting….

Alarming 

[SACRUS]

 

9/14

 

JFK: 84
EWR: 83
TEB: 83
BLM: 82
PHL: 82
New Brnswck: 81
ACY: 81
ISP: 80
NYC:  80
LGA: 80
TTN: 79

[donsutherland1]

Much cooler air will begin to filter into the region tonight. By Friday morning, the coolest air mass so far this season will cover the region. The temperature will likely slip below 60° for the first time this season at Central Park.

However, the early autumnal chill will be short-lived. Noticeably warmer air will likely return early next week. The potential exists for parts of the region to experience 90° or above temperatures at the height of the warmth. Philadelphia and Newark have the best chance at approaching or reaching 90° during the peak of the warmth. New York City will likely top out in the middle or perhaps upper 80s.

In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September. On September 7, Philadelphia picked up 1.22" of rain.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +7.91 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.930 today.

On September 12 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.233 (RMM). The September 11-adjusted amplitude was 0.314 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.1° (1.9° above normal).

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

It's amazing the tug of war the models get into as they're trying to sort out all the data only 7 days prior to a ridge building into the east on top of some kind of tropical system and two models completely different tracks differing by almost a thousand miles as to where this tropical system will go. GFS into the Atlantic threatening the eastern seaboard or GGEM into the Gulf of Mexico threatening the Gulf Coast. The GFS solution at this point brings more heat into the northeast, perhaps two days of around 90 degree temperatures while on the GGEM we are just on the edge of the ridge the same two days but could hit 90 on at least one of them. The models will continue to go back and forth and probably even swap solutions at some point before they settle on what's going to happen. The low confidence in choosing sides right now is that the only ensemble which supports the above scenarios slightly is the GEPS. We're still waiting for the EPS and GEFS to lend credibility to what the operational models are doing.

WX/PT

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly sunny and cooler.  High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 75°

Newark: 77°

Philadelphia: 78°

Much warmer air will arrive on Sunday.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 76.6°; 15-Year: 77.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 78.1°; 15-Year: 78.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 79.3°; 15-Year: 80.0°

[dmillz25]

Down to 63 here

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  75degs.(66/84) or +7.

Month to date is  73.6[+1.6].       Should be  74.1[+3.5] by the 23rd.

Reached 81 here yesterday.

Today: 73-78, wind nw.-breezy, m. sunny, 59 tomorrow AM.

65*(54%RH) at 7am.      64* at 8am.        65* at 9am.        68* at Noon.     70* at 2pm.       72* at 3pm.      73* at 3:30pm.      75* at 4pm.      76*(30%RH) at 5pm.       77*(28%RH) at 5:30pm.         70* at 8pm.

[SACRUS]

Down to 58 last night and now up to a very dry and comfort 67.   Looking gorgeous the next few days and this weekend Sat (9/16). upper 70s / low 80s and dry (open windows) kinda nights.   By Sun (9/17)  ridge is ballooning into TX/OK and the Western Atlantic ridge trying to link pushes warmer air into the region as heights rise. 

So by Sun (9/18) the warmer spots has a shot at late season heat, some storms / clouds maybe brush the area Monday before more warmth and potential heat Tue (9/19) - Fri (9/23) with peak of the heat spike Wed into Thu (9/22).  Beyond that tropics alive in the Atlantic or GOM?  Front comes through next weekend for a brief reprieve in an otherwise overall warm (hot a day or so) period.

[donsutherland1]

With a warm first half of the month and a period of much above normal temperatures likely later this weekend into next week, it is likely that the monthly mean temperature will average at or above 70°F in New York City this September. Historically, such warmth occurred about once every 4 years (once every 5 years prior to 2000). However, with a warming climate coupled with the City’s urban heat island effect, the return time has been cut by more than 50% since 2000. At current monthly normals, such Septembers may now be the norm.

[lee59]

First day that has a real fall feel to it. Struggling to get out of the 60s this morning, 67 now.

[nycwinter]

feels like mid october weather

[nycwinter]

21 hours ago, lee59 said:

The last hurricane to take a path up the east coast and strike Long Island was Gloria in 1985. Since then tropical storms have made similar paths but none were classified as hurricanes when they hit our area.

well bob was a hurricane and just passed to the east of long island in 1991

[Rjay]

Def loving the Christmas wx today.  

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, lee59 said:

First day that has a real fall feel to it. Struggling to get out of the 60s this morning, 67 now.

69 here with a breeze

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Def loving the Christmas wx today.  

 

7 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Def loving the Christmas wx today.  

Xmas is often warmer than this...

[the_other_guy]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

With a warm first half of the month and a period of much above normal temperatures likely later this weekend into next week, it is likely that the monthly mean temperature will average at or above 70°F in New York City this September. Historically, such warmth occurred about once every 4 years (once every 5 years prior to 2000). However, with a warming climate coupled with the City’s urban heat island effect, the return time has been cut by more than 50% since 2000. At current monthly normals, such Septembers may now be the norm.

I would like to say it’s alarming but that’s the wrong word.

It is acute. Too acute for any normal realm of occurrence 

[lee59]

42 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

well bob was a hurricane and just passed to the east of long island in 1991

Yes it was a hurricane but did not hit Long Island directly. If it took the same path as Gloria, it would have been one of the worst hurricanes to hit Long Island as it was very strong when it reached our latitude.

[Prue11]

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

feels like mid october weather

It feels the way it should for September 

[winterwx21]

75 degrees with a dewpoint of 43 here. Spectacular ... a top 5 day of the year.

[CIK62]

While the GFS' FIONA tries to become the Duchess of Earl by following her lover OTS, the EURO and the further west CMC are like this in 10 days from now:

Many more iterations to come.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Yes it was a hurricane but did not hit Long Island directly. If it took the same path as Gloria, it would have been one of the worst hurricanes to hit Long Island as it was very strong when it reached our latitude.

Agreed, it had a fully intact eyewall at our latitude and devastated cape cod. There would have been gusts well over 100mph for much of Long Island with a Gloria track


.

[jm1220]

39 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Agreed, it had a fully intact eyewall at our latitude and devastated cape cod. There would have been gusts well over 100mph for much of Long Island with a Gloria track


.

This probably won’t be it but we certainly are due for what we saw from the late 1930s-early 1960s. A Great Atlantic Hurricane, Donna, 1938, Hazel etc would be 50 billion dollar disasters at the very minimum. Bob 75 miles or so further west would’ve been devastating as well. We seem to get these marine heatwaves all the time too, so any Hurricane would have less time to weaken as it comes north. 

[weathermedic]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

This probably won’t be it but we certainly are due for what we saw from the late 1930s-early 1960s. A Great Atlantic Hurricane, Donna, 1938, Hazel etc would be 50 billion dollar disasters at the very minimum. Bob 75 miles or so further west would’ve been devastating as well. We seem to get these marine heatwaves all the time too, so any Hurricane would have less time to weaken as it comes north. 

https://www.weather.gov/box/hurricane_bob

[Tatamy]

3 hours ago, CIK62 said:

While the GFS' FIONA tries to become the Duchess of Earl by following her lover OTS, the EURO and the further west CMC are like this in 10 days from now:

Many more iterations to come.

FYI - There is a separate thread for Fiona under Tropical Headquarters…

[donsutherland1]

The coolest air mass so far this season is continuing to overspread the region. The temperature will dip into the 50s for the first time this season at Central Park. Some outlying areas could see the mercury dip below 50°.

However, the early autumnal chill will be short-lived. Noticeably warmer air will likely return early next week. The potential exists for parts of the region to experience 90° or above temperatures at the height of the warmth. Philadelphia and Newark have the best chance at approaching or reaching 90° during the peak of the warmth. New York City will likely top out in the middle or upper 80s.

In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September. On September 7, Philadelphia picked up 1.22" of rain.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +8.50 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.510 today.

On September 13 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.030 (RMM). The September 12-adjusted amplitude was 0.229 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.2° (2.0° above normal).

 

[Rmine1]

6 hours ago, Rjay said:

Def loving the Christmas wx today.  

Yeah totally agree. Lights go up tomorrow!

[Stormlover74]

Down to 62..should flirt with 40s tomorrow morning

[psv88]

57 already, definitely hitting the 40s here

[the_other_guy]

Its weird to leave MSP and have it be significantly cooler here…but tonight it is.

Nonetheless, that airmass is quite warm and headed east…