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11 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Almost had some rain here but again it just died and moved near me but not over me. I shouldn't lie, I may have gotten enough rain to make the car tops a little wet.

I had 4-6 drops here. All it did was make the humidity worse. 

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Under mainly sunny skies, temperatures again rose into the 90s across the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Some places experienced cooling thundershowers. High temperatures included:

Albany: 91°
Allentown: 92°
Atlantic City: 92°
Baltimore: 93°
Bangor: 93°
Boston: 98° (tied record set in 1924)
Bridgeport: 91°
Burlington: 92°
Caribou: 89° (tied record set in 1947 and tied in 2001)
Concord: 93°
Hartford: 96°
Manchester, NH: 96° (tied record set in 2001)
New York City: 92°
Newark: 96°
Philadelphia: 94°
Portland: 96° (old record: 93°, 2001 and 2018)
Providence: 95° (tied record set in 1931 and tied in 2001)
Poughkeepsie: 97° (tied record set in 2001)
Washington, DC: 90°
Wilmington, DE: 93°
Worcester: 93°

Tomorrow and Tuesday will see a continuation of hot weather. Temperatures will reach the lower and middle 90s in many parts of the region. Cooler air will begin to arrive by midweek. The weekend could get off to a cool start.

Across the Atlantic Ocean, parts of the UK, including London, could see another round of withering heat. Temperatures could top out near or above 95° on Thursday and Friday.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around July 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the fall.

The SOI was +14.38 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.051 today.

On August 5 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.207 (RMM). The August 4-adjusted amplitude was 0.910 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.5° (1.4° above normal).

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Three record highs at Boston during the last several days as the Gulf of Maine extreme  marine heatwave continues. 

 

 

 


8DA956E5-CF5E-45CF-91FD-6F91E7A1B683.thumb.jpeg.9acbff825e7454545354ffca7ada4007.jpeg

There must be a downslope component as well when winds are SW. There’s a hilly/elevated area to the SW of the city where Blue Hill is. 

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4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Under mainly sunny skies, temperatures again rose into the 90s across the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Some places experienced cooling thundershowers. High temperatures included:

Albany: 91°
Allentown: 92°
Atlantic City: 92°
Baltimore: 93°
Bangor: 93°
Boston: 98° (tied record set in 1924)
Bridgeport: 91°
Burlington: 92°
Caribou: 89° (tied record set in 1947 and tied in 2001)
Concord: 93°
Hartford: 96°
Manchester, NH: 96° (tied record set in 2001)
New York City: 92°
Newark: 96°
Philadelphia: 94°
Portland: 96° (old record: 93°, 2001 and 2018)
Providence: 95° (tied record set in 1931 and tied in 2001)
Poughkeepsie: 97° (tied record set in 2001)
Washington, DC: 90°
Wilmington, DE: 93°
Worcester: 93°

 

I hit the NYC button by mistake instead of PA/NY.  Now that I know it was 89, 93 and 96 in Maine today, I feel even worse.  I lived in Jersey City and worked in the City for years and used to post occasionally here.  Jersey City used to have the Main Library open on Sunday when the heat was really bad. I sure could have used that relief today. 

Thanks for the good information and summary. 

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10 hours ago, jm1220 said:

There must be a downslope component as well when winds are SW. There’s a hilly/elevated area to the SW of the city where Blue Hill is. 

Yeah, the Blue Hills Observatory and Nantucket had their warmest July on record.

 

Time Series Summary for BLUE HILL COOP, MA - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2022 76.0 0
2 1952 75.7 1
3 2010 75.5 3
4 2013 75.3 0
5 2016 75.2 0
- 1994 75.2

0

 

Time Series Summary for NANTUCKET MEMORIAL AP, MA - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2022 73.6 0
2 2013 72.3 0
3 2010 72.2 0
4 1975 72.0 0
5 2021 71.6 1
- 1952 71.6 0
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The next 8 days are averaging  82degs.(74/91) or +5.

Reached 93 here late yesterday.

Today:  90-96, wind w., p. sunny, 80 tomorrow AM.

Hurricane Talk will begin to take over the site-----but not immediately.      I like Sept. 20-Oct. 10 for the N.E. and New England Coastal Elimination Derby---after seeing the LR EURO.      JB liked it too, back in May but had to push it forward ala a 1954 type setup.

77*(95%RH) here at 7am.       80* at 9am.       84*(79%RH) at 11am.        86*(75%RH) at Noon.      Basically 83* from Noon to 3pm.      Then 85* at 3:30pm.       Reached 91* at 6:30pm.

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Morning thoughts…

It will be partly cloudy and hot. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 91°

Newark: 97°

Philadelphia: 96°

Cooler air will begin to arrive by midweek.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 84.2°; 15-Year: 84.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 85.7°; 15-Year: 86.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.7°; 15-Year: 87.0°

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The rural to suburban stations have been having more impressive low temperatures during this heatwave than places around NYC. While numerous stations set record low maxes on Sunday, HPN came closest to the all-time August monthly warmest minimum temperature at 77°. The 73° low at Sussex County was 2nd warmest also for August.

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1988 78 0
2 2022 77 25
- 2006 77 0
- 1985 77 0
3 2016 76 0


 

Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2001 74 1
2 2022 73 29
3 2021 72 0
- 2020 72 2
- 2016 72 0
- 2010 72 0
- 2006 72 0
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Several stations from POU to EWR and Freehold-Marlboro are having their warmest July 20th to August 7th. Other sites are a close 2nd. The 2nd place sites can catch up with the heat the next few days when the period is extended to the 9th. 
 

Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 7
Missing Count
1 2022-08-07 79.5 0
2 1933-08-07 78.7 1
3 1955-08-07 78.5 0
4 1995-08-07 78.4 5
5 2020-08-07 77.9 0
Time Series Summary for FREEHOLD-MARLBORO, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 7
Missing Count
1 2022-08-07 82.3 0
2 1955-08-07 81.5 0
3 1999-08-07 80.4 1
4 2020-08-07 80.3 2
5 2011-08-07 80.1 0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 7
Missing Count
1 2022-08-07 83.8 0
2 2011-08-07 83.3 0
3 1999-08-07 82.5 0
4 2006-08-07 82.1 0
- 2005-08-07 82.1 0
- 1995-08-07 82.1 0
5 2020-08-07 81.5 0


 

Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 7
Missing Count
1 2022-08-07 83.4 0
2 2020-08-07 82.8 0
- 2005-08-07 82.8 0
3 2006-08-07 82.3 0
4 2011-08-07 81.6 2
5 2019-08-07 81.2 0


 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 7
Missing Count
1 1995-08-07 79.3 4
2 2022-08-07 79.0 1
- 1999-08-07 79.0 1
3 1955-08-07 77.9 1
4 1983-08-07 77.8 0
5 2006-08-07 77.7 0


 

Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 7
Missing Count
1 1955-08-07 81.3 0
2 2022-08-07 81.1 0
3 1999-08-07 80.5 0
4 2011-08-07 80.4 0
5 2020-08-07 80.0 0
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37 minutes ago, TriPol said:

‘Tis the season…

4BDA3A4C-DF99-4681-821B-5CCDEFBB82C2.jpeg

Sign me up! I need a new truck again.  Bought my last one week or 2 before Sandy. Paid off the 5 year loan in 2 with 6 months of crazy over- time, 2-4 weeks of working 7 days a week, 12 hour days then 9 hours a day 6 days a week for months! Best silver lining to a bad situation.  

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58 minutes ago, TriPol said:

‘Tis the season…

4BDA3A4C-DF99-4681-821B-5CCDEFBB82C2.jpeg

Just looking at various models, several show some similar views of a low pressure down south but they all seem to lose it versus the gfs. Time will tell.

 

But all the ensembles including gefs say nothing to see here.... move on

 

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There's chances of rain later this week Wednesday and Thursday but I don't think it will be enough to put a dent in the drought IMO. I do think the chances for rain events will only increase as we head later into the season but nothing too promising. At this point I'd welcome a tropical system just to get the rain here, just one that's not super destructive.

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10 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

The near normal weather late this week and weekend will feel cold compared to the sauna we have now. 

It's going to feel especially great with the very low humidity. Dewpoints could fall to the upper 40s next weekend.

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32 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

It's going to feel especially great with the very low humidity. Dewpoints could fall to the upper 40s next weekend.

hopefully this marks the end of the big heat.  As we move through August ave temps begin dropping steadily

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7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nah it'll be back. Maybe not upper 90s and 100s but many more 90s to go

this current ridge retrograde was under modeled and there's a signal for another one in about 8 days

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