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August 2022


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Morning thoughts…

It will be partly cloudy and very warm. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 90°

Newark: 96°

Philadelphia: 94°

Cooler air will begin to arrive by midweek.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 84.3°; 15-Year: 84.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 85.8°; 15-Year: 86.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.8°; 15-Year: 87.2°

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We may be able to get a break from the 75-80° lows and 95-100° highs after Wednesday. The EPS brings a weak trough into the region by later Wednesday into Thursday. It continues with this weak trough theme days 6-10 and 11-15. 

3C3A720C-63BE-4670-92CB-82A86B76A89F.thumb.png.6b13b4ddaf2297594d225f42fe810be1.png

EDE33A32-3903-4248-91DD-66BA15064A8E.thumb.png.2fdb8901bd33b5ba02d8a27c0cc2681e.png

 

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85/73 and continued hot and humid.  Pop up storms weren't kind to the area yesterday and it looks similar today but there could be some pop up drenchers, otherwise low / mid 90s and very high humidity.  Mon (8/8) could see mid/upper 90s and a few 100s in the hot / dry spots.  Tue depending on the timing of the frontal system with clouds and storms, could push more strong heat with enough sun.  Beyond there Wed (8/10) has front moving through and it could be slow to clear, lingering into Thu (8/11) which could produce more rainfall for the region. 

Trough slides in Thu and Fri (8/12) through next weekend Sat (8/13) and Sun (8/14) looks dry and warm , likely less in the way of 90s outside the warm spots.  Have to keep eye on front and if it gets hung up nearby the coast and is it close enough for some rain in coastal areas beyond Thursday.  

Rockes / Plains Ridge surges again with a piece of that heat looking to come east Tue (8/16) way out there.  Need to watch the Ridges push up against each other as the W. AR may come west and potential cutoff ULL n the same period.  Overall warm pattern but think we can improve rain chances.

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Through August 6th, New York City's highest daily precipitation is 1.85". If that holds, that would be the lowest figure since 2019 when the maximum daily amount was 1.83". Since New York City moved into a much wetter regime beginning in 1971, the maximum figure has generally been increasing. With potential tropical cyclone-enhanced moisture later this summer into the fall (assuming the EPS seasonal map's risk assessment is reasonably on course), the 1.85" figure could be washed away.

Below is a chart showing the 30-year moving average for highest daily precipitation since 1900.

image.jpeg.81512893c041d8bcede90b15fe650614.jpeg

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15 minutes ago, gpsnavigator said:

Low of 76 in here Sparta, elevation 800 feet at my house.

The low of 73° at FWN was just 1° below the all-time warmest since the records began in 2000.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KFWN&hours=72

 

Maximum 1-Day Mean Min Temperature 
for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Value
Ending Date
Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 2000-08-28 to 2022-08-06
1 74.0 2018-07-24
- 74.0 2014-09-02
- 74.0 2001-08-10
2 73.0 2021-06-27
- 73.0 2014-07-15
- 73.0 2011-07-22
- 73.0 2005-07-17
- 73.0 2002-07-29
3 72.0 2021-08-18
- 72.0 2020-08-02
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15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Through August 6th, New York City's highest daily precipitation is 1.85". If that holds, that would be the lowest figure since 2019 when the maximum daily amount was 1.83". Since New York City moved into a much wetter regime beginning in 1971, the maximum figure has generally been increasing. With potential tropical cyclone-enhanced moisture later this summer into the fall (assuming the EPS seasonal map's risk assessment is reasonably on course), the 1.85" figure could be washed away.

Below is a chart showing the 30-year moving average for highest daily precipitation since 1900.

image.jpeg.81512893c041d8bcede90b15fe650614.jpeg

As you stated, if this Euro seasonal map is correct we should wash & blow away the current figure. 
 

87DC8455-B69C-4C96-B731-F1D360BB0771.thumb.jpeg.78ed5aac8e01c7bcfbe65091d49dff3e.jpeg

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11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Low to mid 80s Friday and Saturday? Could it be?

May add Thu to capped in the 80s or even 70s.  Could be a similar type day to Mon (8/1) locked in low clouds.

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