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August 2022


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21 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Absolutely nothing today. It’s amazing how we can’t get anything to form in our area. Once again mid Atlantic gets crushed 

It's so frustrating. I watered the vegetable garden today. A few days ago when the models were showing a deluge for today into tomorrow, I was hoping to finally get a break from watering. Terrible how nothing ever pans out this summer.

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33 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

89 at the park today. Did they even have a official heatwave this week? Lol

Complete joke, I can promise you it was at least in the low 90s on the uws. My truck thermometer which is pretty damn accurate was 94/95 this afternoon. Still 92 heading home from work now.

Drying out again, had to stay late to water 

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The average high temperature since July 20th has been near the warmest it has ever been across the region. Even places in the Hudson Valley like POU are have been over 90° which is rare. EWR  and POU are very close with EWR at 93.2° and POU at 92.2°. The tree growth has kept NYC much cooler at 88.6°. New Brunswick is 3rd warmest at 92.3°. Freehold is #1 at 94.6°. The 2 Philly stations are also near the top above 90°. The high at PHL has been 92.3° and KPNE 92.5°. So not seeing any high temperature errors there like some have been mentioning. Newark is also in line with the other warm spots. This leaves NYC as  having the only big error in the region. 
 

Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Max Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 5
Missing Count
1 1933-08-05 93.4 1
2 2022-08-05 92.2 0
3 1955-08-05 91.9 0
4 2005-08-05 91.1 0
5 1995-08-05 90.8 5


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Max Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 5
Missing Count
1 2022-08-05 93.2 0
2 2011-08-05 92.6 0
- 1993-08-05 92.6 0
4 2005-08-05 92.2 0
5 1999-08-05 91.7 0
6 1995-08-05 91.6 0


 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Max Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 5
Missing Count
1 1999-08-05 91.3 0
2 1955-08-05 91.1 0
3 2005-08-05 90.6 0
4 1995-08-05 90.5 0
5 1993-08-05 90.4 0
6 2011-08-05 90.1 0
- 1944-08-05 90.1 0
7 1980-08-05 89.9 0
8 1949-08-05 89.4 0
9 2015-08-05 89.2 0
10 2010-08-05 88.9 0
11 1933-08-05 88.8 0
12 2022-08-05 88.6 0


 

Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Max Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 5
Missing Count
1 1999-08-05 93.4 0
2 1955-08-05 93.1 0
3 2022-08-05 92.3 0
4 2011-08-05 92.2 0
5 1894-08-05 91.2 0


 

Time Series Summary for FREEHOLD-MARLBORO, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Max Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 5
Missing Count
1 2022-08-05 94.6 0
2 1955-08-05 93.2 0
3 1999-08-05 92.3 1
4 2011-08-05 91.6 0
5 2020-08-05 91.1 1


 

Time Series Summary for NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT, PA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Max Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 5
Missing Count
1 1999-08-05 93.1 0
2 2011-08-05 92.6 0
3 2022-08-05 92.5 0
4 2019-08-05 91.2 0
5 2005-08-05 90.5 0


 

Time Series Summary for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Max Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 5
Missing Count
1 1995-08-05 93.8 0
2 2022-08-05 92.3 0
3 2011-08-05 92.2 0
4 1999-08-05 92.0 0
- 1987-08-05 92.0 0
5 1955-08-05 91.5 0
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The next 8 days are averaging  82degs.(74/90) or +5.

Reached 86 here yesterday.       Decent heat lightning in the sw sky to go with the fireworks here in CI last night 9-10pm---but no rain.

Today: 86-91, wind sw., breezy,  p. cloudy to m. cloudy late, 77 tomorrow AM.

76*(90%RH) here at 7am.        80* at 11:30am.       82*(81%RH) at 1pm.        86*(71%RH) at 3pm---feels like 96*.      87* at 3:30pm.       91*(57%RH) at 5pm---feels like 100.     93*(57%RH) and feels like   105   in CI @5:15pm.         80*(85%RH) at 9pm.

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The 0z EPS shifted to showing more blocking long range. This could mean better rainfall chances and less 95°+ major heat potential later in August. But it’s one of those things that could shift if the WAR is stronger in later runs. 

New run

4BEA3DE8-470E-478C-AF59-10FE06EABDED.thumb.png.5f113da7721884e2dec36073ac0d679c.png

Old run

F8BD58F6-E265-4203-9E00-EA660D64A449.thumb.png.9bf88316e36e955ad9a49786d28bbfb1.png

 

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Morning thoughts…

It will be partly cloudy and very warm. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 88°

Newark: 93°

Philadelphia: 90°

The very warm weather will continue through the weekend.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 84.4°; 15-Year: 84.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 85.9°; 15-Year: 86.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.9°; 15-Year: 87.3°

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80 / 72 after a warm low of 73 and 0.17 more in the bucket from late evening and overnight rains.  Florida style weather with warm / humid and pop up storms that could grow or become slow soakers and drenchers.  When /where the sun is out a quick heatup to near or / low 90s perhaps above.  More the same Sun (8/7) and Mon (8/8) looks like a very hot day with less storms and more westerly flow ahead of the the trough and front.  Tue (8/8) timing of the front will be key, should it come later than early surge of heat followed by storms that could be slow to clear wed (8/9).  

Trough builds down by Wed (8/9) and through the end of the week Fri (8/11) with temps back to normal, drier areas could over perform and ratchet up more 90s but overall warm near normal.  Rockies / Plains ridge centers near Kentucky and building heat is pushing east by next weeend Sat (8/12) and beyond could get to us by week of 8/13.  Way out there but on the rim of that ridge could spell continued storm chances but overall warm august as we continue into the dog days.

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