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August Discussion/Obs


weatherwiz
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17 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Dews taking their sweet time to drop.  68/63

Fwiw WPC's recent sfc analysis suggests the front is too close to have effectively scoured your air mass just yet, and quasi stationary with a bump low. It aligns roughly up down shores over eastern Ma/Me...and even back here some 40 mi west of that idea ... that all means the momentum wasn't likely enough to completely cleanse just yet.  That would be my guess...

Here is the Euro's most recent run and it lines up the position  ~ 9z within acceptable error.

image.png.402eead323d3f90c09f19a3d7987ab2f.png

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Convectively driven showers/thunder seem probable each day for much of the week. It's not the soaking widespread rains we need. It has potential to be quite cool though (at least compared to where we've been at). I mean extended GFS barely gets EWR to 70 Tuesday :lol: 

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9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Convectively driven showers/thunder seem probable each day for much of the week. It's not the soaking widespread rains we need. It has potential to be quite cool though (at least compared to where we've been at). I mean extended GFS barely gets EWR to 70 Tuesday :lol: 

That's only happening in a complete shut down overcast over saturated RH rains, which was the 00z layout...

Again, I don't like the idea.  The 06z is more keeping with trends, trends that fit climo and other synoptic reasoning related to persistence, and separately... model performance when relaying late mid range into mid ..shorter visions.  

We'll see.  It's sort of an interesting test in an otherwise dearth of anything in this hobby that requires much attention - in fact, ...this aspect has already been given a lot more than it needs in a vacuum, but we have the hydro concerns drawing the focus.

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's only happening in a complete shut down overcast over saturated RH rains, which was the 00z layout...

Again, I don't like the idea.  The 06z is more keeping with trends, trends that fit climo and other synoptic reasoning related to persistence, and separately... model performance when relaying late mid range into mid ..shorter visions.  

We'll see.  It's sort of an interesting test in an otherwise dearth of anything in this hobby that requires much attention - in fact, ...this aspect has already been given a lot more than it needs in a vacuum, but we have the hydro concerns drawing the focus.

I'm sure they'll get into the 70's but there's room for lots of cloud cover given how cold it will be aloft and especially if the closed low is nearby over overhead. We may break clouds during the evening and overnight and begin the day partly-to-mostly sunny but should quickly see clouds develop. I wouldn't be surprised though if there are some locations that don't get above 70 each day through the first half of the week. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Too cool. That’s fine on Labor Day.

It’s been a great warm season. May and June full coc with a 4wk sustained HHH now back to coc. Yea the dryness is causing some to seize out and check themselves into a mental health center but we’ll get the rains like always soon enough. 

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7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

It was nice to feel low dews though for the first time in a while.   Would love some more moderate heat over the next two week then Bam!   Foliage and pumpkin spiced weenies

I’ve enjoyed the summer and it goes by too quickly. Maybe winter will be longer than 4 weeks.

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1 hour ago, Whineminster said:

Yeah I wish summer lasted until NOV, a few weeks of fall and then bam, ACATT to April 1

You and me are on the opposite sides of the druthers ... sort of.

I prefer a front loaded winter.   The best example I have ever experienced was 1995, with close 2nd place perhaps 2008 then again 2010.. Those years had snow pack through all of December - check that on the latter two... may have been close. But definitely that was so 1995. 

So, that's going back almost 30 years at this point.   It's hard to do the earlier, ..as that sample size alone less than delicately points out. So my expectations are pretty low any given year that I'll get what I want.  

1995 I was attending college at UML, which is situated in the Merrimack Valley - in fact, the campuses total region straddles the river as it cuts through the N side of Lowell. It's probably really more of a southern-SE NH climate characteristic.  But, that autumn started featuring large diurnal spreads by mid October.   What's funny is this seems to conflict with warm spell memories of others that month, but it sticks out to me how many deep frosty mornings we had there after the first week of October.   By late month.... there was ice on the shade side of the Pawtucket hydro- viaduct.  The canal was built of granite slabs, tightly fitted...each probably 4 tons. The fascia stoop some 50 foot above the river basin by the time it hits the defunct hydro electric dam. They still use it to control flow rates...whatever - may not have that entirely right but that's what I always thought. 

Anyway, the water pressure squeezes through the seams between the slabs at trickle rates... It's normal. But it's kind of like those seeps you see along highways escarpment where the granite hillside were cut through to lay the road?   Those rivulets were freezing by the 20th, and though the afternoons recovered to a crispy mid or upper 40s, by then the sun is so sloped that the N wall of the viaduct is in eternal cold shade,  preserving those fragile ice features in the still cool air. Yellows and saffron hued trees dappling the hillsides gave homages to a world still worth being in.  Jesus

I distinctly remember that imagery, and thinking it must be early in the year to see that.  I think that autumn was very gradient though. Like CT was near 60 on those days, and that may be why-for the varying anecdotal accounting.   But, by early November ...it was clear, this was an unusual mid to late autumn setting up.  I recall the recently decease Mish Michaels had stopped by the UML Weather Lab to tour the facility. She would later briefly tenure a professorship to teach intro to media...  We didn't have that access as Met students prior to that; that operation up there was like Navier-Stokes jump off the chalk board and took on a daily form, and we lived each derivative.  

Where the f am I going... Oh yeah, she and I sidled up to a PC and observed the then, MRF model, churning out coastals on the long range charts in regular periodicity.  We were commenting like any little wiener shnitzels would, about how it was plausible because the -NAO this ...and the predominating +PNA while that was happening ...were large scale hemispherically favored ... blah blah-blah blah.  Dr Frank Colby rolled his eyes - serving as tour guide - and rolled back into his office while we drooled over the console.  

We were right. 

By mid month, there was a solid pack.   It was sleety in nature, but plenty of snow. And it was cold! I mean, those first couple of gigs laid cake, but there was arctic cold by mid month and the Merrimack back waters above the dam were actually freezing some 45 days ahead of typical.  It was a white Thanks giggedy... another storm months end... We were sitting on a foot of strata pack type from Acton to the Lowell... Not sure about CT-RI, but I suspect by then the polar suppression had engulfed all the way down.   December?  Forget it... man.. .I recall climbing over curb-side snow banks to access pubs down off Beacon street, with 9 F cold and vocal steam vapors falling instead of rising type blue nuts cold.  By then I think there was 18" of glacier not going anywhere.   Another storm 24'ed the pack into Xmas ...something like that...Then, we were biding time while the Megalopolis Blizzard '96 was emerging in the extendeds, with no means to modify the ginormous scale in mass of that eastern Canada and the NE U.S. cold - which loaded the region as the solar min was sweeping over the hemisphere ...  That was one that you knew with exceptional early long lead confidence, it was either all snow, or no snow due to a PD deal... But there was no way it could like physically rain...LOL.  And it didn't as we all know that are old enough to remember that monster. 

We had 35" of snow on the level a week after the Meg blitz...because there was another coastal that laid down an unthinkable new 8-12"  It was a wetter snow ... The air smelled like rain while it was snowing.  Perhaps an homage of what would transpire a week later...  It was big deal because roofs wee starting to fail from weight.  

Then, the thaws....   removed it all!  

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6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Saw a man on a lawnmower the other day and all he was doing was kicking up a pile of dust. 

It's a toy, that's why.  They just haven't had a chance to play with it.

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