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August Discussion/Obs


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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Looks like the storm broke the GFS

This run has more actual short wave mechanics loading into the trough basin (albeit subtle) - something we hadn't seen.

It's like the previous runs were opening up a deeper geopotential nadir, not based on that requirement. It's been the primary reason for my backing off the idea.  That, and the fact that the GFS has been having to correct just about everything it ever sees beyond D5's, to something less percentage-wise in amplitude coming into nearer terms, since about 2014 (<_<)

It's intriguing as a subtle but important difference. We'll see what the ens of the EPS and GEFies do

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