Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,191
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    2015Wrx
    Newest Member
    2015Wrx
    Joined

August Discussion/Obs


weatherwiz
 Share

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Mid season form already. 

Doesn’t really look like a convection robbing moisture synoptic set up does it?  The SE to E deep layer flow… usually convection disrupting moisture transport seems more like SW to S flow or am I making that up?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Doesn’t really look like a convection robbing moisture synoptic set up does it?  The SE to E deep layer flow… usually convection disrupting moisture transport seems more like SW to S flow or am I making that up?

Deep easterly flow is famously dry in New England. :lol:

My quibble is definitely with his "always", as convection will induce a circulation of its own that can either enhance or diminish moisture transport. The circulation will be counter-clockwise around the convective feature, so a SW/NE oriented line of convection would tend to shunt moisture east. SE/NW oriented would do the opposite.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Deep easterly flow is famously dry in New England. :lol:

My quibble is definitely with his "always", as convection will induce a circulation of its own that can either enhance or diminish moisture transport. The circulation will be counter-clockwise around the convective feature, so a SW/NE oriented line of convection would tend to shunt moisture east. SE/NW oriented would do the opposite.

Ok yeah that’s what I always thought.  I hate seeing those strong convective lines angled SW to NE through the Ohio Valley and into Mid-Atlantic in winter storms while QPF gets trimmed every run lol.  In my head I always thought the more N-S oriented the “better.”  Maybe not fully knowing why but don’t like anything /…. this vertical | or \ please lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Deep easterly flow is famously dry in New England. :lol:

My quibble is definitely with his "always", as convection will induce a circulation of its own that can either enhance or diminish moisture transport. The circulation will be counter-clockwise around the convective feature, so a SW/NE oriented line of convection would tend to shunt moisture east. SE/NW oriented would do the opposite.

Beer?

  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

GYX is actually participating in an experiment with a new visualization tool, mainly for support services, but I think it's going to have pretty large forecasting impacts too.

The website allows you to play with the so called Grand Ensemble (GEFS, EPS, CMCEPS), including adding or removing members, comparing differences, etc. But you can also view individual cluster groups (pants tent stuff). For instance here, clusters 4 and 5 are the wet ones (12z run) and both feature higher than mean heights across northern Maine and the Maritimes. i.e. you increase the gradient and resulting easterly flow into New England.  

  • Like 3
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think it’s more a s/w issue to be honest. 

While the 18z Euro doesn't go far enough out, you can definitely see signifigantly less precipitation south of New England on HR 90.  Could be nothing... or something got ingested into the 18z models that dried things out for us...

 

 

ecmwf_apcpn_neus_32.png

ecmwf_apcpn_neus_30_2.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

While the 18z Euro doesn't go far enough out, you can definitely see signifigantly less precipitation south of New England on HR 90.  Could be nothing... or something got ingested into the 18z models that dried things out for us...

 

 

ecmwf_apcpn_neus_32.png

ecmwf_apcpn_neus_30_2.png

We tried to tell ‘em. I wasn’t buying the Paul pierce pump fake with these models showing a bunch of rain.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

While the 18z Euro doesn't go far enough out, you can definitely see signifigantly less precipitation south of New England on HR 90.  Could be nothing... or something got ingested into the 18z models that dried things out for us...

 

 

ecmwf_apcpn_neus_32.png

ecmwf_apcpn_neus_30_2.png

EPS is pretty wet still. We hold the course. I’m not saying 5” is coming,  but I believe we have a good chance of beneficial rains. We’ll see. Still time to go to crap, but I’m hopeful.

  • Like 2
  • Weenie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS is pretty wet still. We hold the course. I’m not saying 5” is coming,  but I believe we have a good chance of beneficial rains. We’ll see. Still time to go to crap, but I’m hopeful.

Seems like a cold season synoptic approach to modeling.  We know there are wild run-to-run swings in the deterministic models so the next best utilization are the ensembles.

The hedge is somewhere in the middle between nothing and 2-5”.  Even a widespread synoptic soaking of 0.50-0.75” is highly beneficial.

  • Like 1
  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...