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August Discussion/Obs


weatherwiz
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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Neighbor across street watered most of July . At times he had 2 sprinklers going at once . He got his water bill last week. $575. :lol: Needless to say.. his wife put a stop to all of that in one fell swoop . We all have wells except him. Don’t really get it and neither does he. 

If that first pic is supposed to be the neighbor who watered most of July, and got the high water bill then I think he is doing something wrong.  His lawn looks like a.ss.

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The continuity issues are the 101 red flag.

The other flag -for me- is that the trough expands without loading. 

It looks like an artifact of the models … sort of spontaneously calving out the isohypses.  They then respond to their own error in developing (previous solutions) a suspiciously anchored low - based on faux deepening aloft. 

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I feel like it's day five before a fading coastal in the guidance... It's circa some February 20, during a particularly frustratingly low performing winter season, knowing in the back of one's mind, winter is past middle age and its best potential may have already ended - it's now or never.   

The last five cycles of the GEFs mean ( 24 hours), cumulative spanning through next 00z Friday, have ranged between just over 1" total QPF, to ~ .7"   Interestingly, the greatest and least individual run totals were this most recent 00z (most) and the 06z immediately right after ( least ).

image.png.889d68c53a114e65a7f25c7f5545cf7e.png  

The Euro run more than less pulled the plug on substantive/corrective QPF yesterday at 12z's cycle. I haven't bothered to look at the 18z run...but the 00z run appears to have continued along the 12z thinking. 

The situation is both complex, and weak... And, if that were not enough, 'weak' in the scenario from Mon thru ~ Thurs, does not mean heavy rain can not happen.  There will be a tendency to pool theta-e within the trough's basin.  If this opens up more and allows more insolation...say, you go back the other way with convective downpours that may be slow moving given to the weak flow aloft and the slow synoptic evolution combined.  It can manifest rains that aren't really seen by any ens mean ( certainly ...) do to small scaled coverage and resolution issues.. etc.

The idea of a general cool synoptic refitting pan-dimensional QPF event appears to be lowering odds, however.   I've already opined my broader encompassing reasons why that is actually the preferred ( likely...) result, anyway, but ...the period of time probably is not a loss for those really buckin' for rains/drought interests. Because, there should still be a general better mid level to surface lapse rates hanging daily over said pooling of theta-e, and so there'd likely be daily instability to give. These global numerical guidance types are not going to necessarily seed the field with TCU, so that's unknowable - just recognize the metrics and roll the dice.  

That all said... a 00z operational GFS solution is not impossible either, ...again, I personally don't feel that's likely due to the overall trend to shed the typical late mid range amplitude as this week is nearing, working with cross guidance trends.

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