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August Discussion/Obs


weatherwiz
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18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Some of the disconnect about the younger versions of ourselves reading about disasters of yore and now is that we’re also way better equipped to handle them in many places. 
 

Like for example, ORH is never going to see another 1955 flood again due to the drainage and flood control systems put into place after that one. Tornado warnings are way better now and NWP guidance is much better now which reduces the risk of 1978-style traffic disasters. 
 

That acts as a mitigating effect on the weather disaster itself even if extreme heavy rainfall events or extreme droughts are more frequent than they were 50-100 years ago. 

Of course, on the flip side, we keep building really expensive homes and infrastructure in areas that are vulnerable to storm surges in hurricanes, nor Easters, etc. But that’s more of a human decision-making problem. 

Yup. To the building expensive properties along the coast point…it would be awesome to see a cat5 hit big money areas. Spare the poorer communities in the Caribbean and pass the eye over mar a lago instead. 

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Summer isn't going anywhere anytime soon. Sure we'll have some breaks with "cooler" temperatures and lower dewpoints as we near the transition season but the overall theme is going to be very, very warm and quite humid. 

You’ve been drinking with Woody too much.

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55 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You’ve been drinking with Woody too much.

As long as we keep building high anomalies well into western and central Canada we're unlikely to see much in the way of cooldowns or anything significant with exception being northern New England. Unless we see some pretty significant changes during the second half of September we are looking at yet another very warm month with respect to climo. 

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2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Summer isn't going anywhere anytime soon. Sure we'll have some breaks with "cooler" temperatures and lower dewpoints as we near the transition season but the overall theme is going to be very, very warm and quite humid. 

We have at most another two weeks of summer left.....I don't need to look at long range charts to tell you that. Just like we can't have sustained winter beyond mid March. First two weeks of the month is fair game.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Some of the disconnect about the younger versions of ourselves reading about disasters of yore and now is that we’re also way better equipped to handle them in many places. 
 

Like for example, ORH is never going to see another 1955 flood again due to the drainage and flood control systems put into place after that one. Tornado warnings are way better now and NWP guidance is much better now which reduces the risk of 1978-style traffic disasters. 
 

That acts as a mitigating effect on the weather disaster itself even if extreme heavy rainfall events or extreme droughts are more frequent than they were 50-100 years ago. 

Of course, on the flip side, we keep building really expensive homes and infrastructure in areas that are vulnerable to storm surges in hurricanes, nor Easters, etc. But that’s more of a human decision-making problem. 

The building codes are better, so we won't see the volume of homes rendered uninhabitable like we did during Andrew, but the damage potential is still greater due to the higher population.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Some of the disconnect about the younger versions of ourselves reading about disasters of yore and now is that we’re also way better equipped to handle them in many places. 
 

Like for example, ORH is never going to see another 1955 flood again due to the drainage and flood control systems put into place after that one. Tornado warnings are way better now and NWP guidance is much better now which reduces the risk of 1978-style traffic disasters. 
 

That acts as a mitigating effect on the weather disaster itself even if extreme heavy rainfall events or extreme droughts are more frequent than they were 50-100 years ago. 

Of course, on the flip side, we keep building really expensive homes and infrastructure in areas that are vulnerable to storm surges in hurricanes, nor Easters, etc. But that’s more of a human decision-making problem. 

I agree in principle, but would the new systems actually handle 15-20" RA in 8 days?  ORH does have some advantage with much of the town being on a hill rather than in a valley.  I wonder what the estimated return interval would be for such a scenario - the (recently) oft-mentioned 1000-yr event?  There were sites in western CT that bagged 22" in those 8 days; building systems to handle that deluge would financially be like DCA (or maybe RDU) equipping their road dept. with CAR-level snow removal equipment.

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7 minutes ago, tamarack said:

I agree in principle, but would the new systems actually handle 15-20" RA in 8 days?  ORH does have some advantage with much of the town being on a hill rather than in a valley.  I wonder what the estimated return interval would be for such a scenario - the (recently) oft-mentioned 1000-yr event?  There were sites in western CT that bagged 22" in those 8 days; building systems to handle that deluge would financially be like DCA (or maybe RDU) equipping their road dept. with CAR-level snow removal equipment.

A 1955 repeat would still be a disaster for sure....just not as bad as the original. At least in ORH. I'm not sure how the flood mechanisms have changed in the CT river valley since then.

Ditto about another 1978 in the Boston suburbs.....we just aren't likely to have another top-end KU catch people by surprise at work at 10-11am in the morning like back then. Closest we get nowadays is something like the 12/13/07 traffic nightmare....that was a much more modest storm than '78 obviously, but the early stages of it were very similar (wall of heavy snow arrives late morning when people are already at work/school). People didn't take '07 as seriously since it wasn't a big storm. Normally 6-10 inches of snow is pretty manageable, but not when it comes in like a wall with temps well below freezing.

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My thoughts on September as posted in the last August thread ... ha!  are that with the activation of the western Pacific tropical season (delayed but not denied) that makes for uncertainty at the quasi-seasonal outlook scope ( 1 month lead).

Typhoon Tokage recurved and 5 days later, we saw a modest 500 mb anomaly roll south through the GOA region of the NE Pac, ..triggering a W N/A wave response -->  lending to tomorrows trough and cooler air arrival.  

...There was at least a transient AB Pacific flow type response that has succeeded.   

The impetus being, these are effectual changes.  Not all recurvies are coherent in that regard...  I suspect the predominating western N/A ridge signal all summer and still on going, is why/helping this time.   The two aspects are actually a constructive interference.

...should the recurve phenonmenon continue in the means, these evidences suggest that early season cool incursion E of 100W may become more prevalent.     Hint hint, I suspect it may.   Why? the last known MJO related momentum was in the Phase 1/2 region of the RMM, which is correlated to that behavior.  In a sense, ...Newton's first law of inertia applies: objects at rest stays at rest and an object in motion stays in motion with the same speed and in the same direction unless acted upon by an unbalanced force. 

Typhoon Hinnamnor is modeled into the China Sea but appears that is as far as it will get before curving around that longitude.  Then 98W may stall while that passes over head, while intensifying, and then it may rise in latitude on its heel.   Experimental, admittedly ..but it's behavior that fits the circulation modal history and thus going forward.  So combining the Pacific behavior and the other constructive interference schemes above ( or quasi in in that regard ) .... that means I've written way too much for the average reader to give a shit anymore and they are now thumbing Instagram posts.  

In short, I suspect we see more +PNAP structures over N/A, that are not likely a part of the present catalogue of available guidance means at all really. It's an expectation for an emergence.   That's probably when summer really 'ends'

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

My thoughts on September as posted in the last August thread ... ha!  are that with the activation of the western Pacific tropical season (delayed but not denied) that makes for uncertainty at the quasi-seasonal outlook scope ( 1 month lead).

Typhoon Tokage recurved and 5 days later, we saw a modest 500 mb anomaly roll south through the GOA region of the NE Pac, ..triggering a W N/A wave response -->  lending to tomorrows trough and cooler air arrival.  

...There was at least a transient AB Pacific flow type response that has succeeded.   

The impetus being, these are effectual changes.  Not all recurvies are coherent in that regard...  I suspect the predominating western N/A ridge signal all summer and still on going, is why/helping this time.   The two aspects are actually a constructive interference.

...should the recurve phenonmenon continue in the means, these evidence suggest that early season cool incursion E of 100W may become more prevalent.     Hint hint, I suspect it may.   Why? the last known MJO related momentum was in the Phase 1/2 region of the RMM, which is correlated to that behavior.  In a sense, ...Newton's first law of inertia applies: objects at rest stays at rest and an object in motion stays in motion with the same speed and in the same direction unless acted upon by an unbalanced force. 

Typhoon Hinnamnor is modeled into the China Sea but appears that is as far as it will get before curving around that longitude.  Then 98W may stall while that passes over head, while intensifying, and then it may rise in latitude on its heel.   Experimental, admittedly ..but it's behavior that fits the circulation modal history and thus going forward.  So combining the Pacific behavior and the other constructive interference schemes above ( or quasi in in that regard ) .... that means I've written too much for the average reader to give a shit anymore and they have are now thumbing Instagram posts.  

In short, I suspect we see more +PNAP structures over N/A that are not likely a part of the present catalogue of available guidance means at all really. It's an expectation for an emergence.   That's probably when summer really 'ends'

I expect that to be kind of theme throughout the cold season...been saying that.

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57 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

As long as we keep building high anomalies well into western and central Canada we're unlikely to see much in the way of cooldowns or anything significant with exception being northern New England. Unless we see some pretty significant changes during the second half of September we are looking at yet another very warm month with respect to climo. 

I don’t care much for what the overall numbers look at month end. The fact is sustained summeh is coming to an end tomorrow. There will be bouts of warm and humid stretches again, sure, but they’ll be manageable and not lasting more than a couple days. The heat bites over the next couple weeks, when they do occur, won’t be as deep. 

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This is full summer.  Tolland STEM says -27F dew point but it feels a bit more humid than that to be honest.

83F in the shade in North Woodstock but has to be 70F dews.

yeah... the DP's definitely closer to -18

 

man, this is hot as ballz down here.  92/69 averaging these town home stations.  KASH is 91/71 ... 

Thing is, we haven't really suffered the highest DPs imaginable this year... I haven't actually seen a lot of 90+ coupled up with 70 DPs, so today is right up there for that combo HI thing.    I mean it's not as bad as the history week of 98s or nothing no.  But it sure looks like summers back is broken, huh - lol

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2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yup. To the building expensive properties along the coast point…it would be awesome to see a cat5 hit big money areas. Spare the poorer communities in the Caribbean and pass the eye over mar a lago instead. 

Yeah except we would pay for them to be rebuilt. 

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