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July 2022


bluewave
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26 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I respect the Mount Holly mets but I don't think they're using all the information available.  In the end, our discussion isn't all that important but I still want accuracy. 

 

It does bother me greatly that NYC's climate statistics have been severely compromised for such a long period of time.  

They should probably read the paper that I posted yesterday on how flawed the MADIS comparisons are. 

While the OKX crew does a great job on forecasting, what they let happen to the Central Park observing site doesn’t speak highly of the quality control at the NYC ASOS. I don’t think that any other local NWS office would allow that to happen to one of their legacy sites.

At least the forecasters from the surrounding offices drop in and add their comments. But we seldom see forecasters from the OKX office comment on Central Park.

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This could be the only TSTM of the day if you believe the HRRR...at least for the immediate NYC area but perhaps this tells us there is enough instability and juice that additional activity will occur on the front...this cell is fast enough and small enough in area it should not kill the instability in the area 

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Just now, hooralph said:

This part of NJ has done very well recently!  Had .04" here a little bit ago as fast moving shower moved through.  Expectations for rest of the day are low.

SPS says 80% chance watch box will be issued for parts of NNJ into SNE.  Think anything will be very localized.

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4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Weird looking watch "box"

 

ww0502_radar_big.gif

I think the chances of any meaningful rainfall going forward today across NJ is very low.  Not a good thing as rest of the week does not offer much.  Parts of NJ are almost certainly going to bounce into D1 conditions this week or next.

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38 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I don't think anyone is tossing New Brunswick though.  I think their numbers are accurate in 2022.  

I was in East Brunswick on Saturday and my car read 102 just after driving in a residential area. felt like it too

I think EWR is actually a pretty good representation of the UHI and other densely populated areas in NE NJ as well as SI, Brooklyn, and Queens away from the immediate coast

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Since I am doing research involving the NYC data base, I would be interested in thoughts about how long the tree canopy issue has possibly been affecting temperatures and by what amount, also could we say it was an issue only during foliation season? How strong a wind negates it? 

My belief is that the July 1936 heat wave would have registered something well over 100 F even in today's setting, but that aside, I am looking at comparing data with urban effects considered, and this tree canopy issue is an urban effect in the opposite direction to the urban heat island. My comparisons assumed a gradual rise in the u.h.i. throughout the data set to 1980 and a level signal since 1980 (at some point the urban area gets so large that increases stop happening near its center and are observed further out). The adjustments are more relevant to minimum than maximum temperatures for urban heat islands (typically, if an urban heat island is on the order of 2 F deg, then the average increases will be 0.5 daytime and 3.5 overnight). 

So I am considering adjusting the urban filter that I applied to include this tree canopy issue, any suggestions? Or is there an argument to be made that larger tree canopies have spread through significant portions of the metropolitan area therefore this is just part of the historical trend and something not to be filtered out, since we don't filter out changes to the agriculture of the great plains etc.

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I don't know why this is a mystery or a debate. Of course it is likely to be a few degrees cooler in Central Park. If you have gone in on a summer morning you can feel the temperature drop when you get in. Whether that is more reflective of the "natural" or "built" environment that people experience is open for interpretation.

To Roger's point, I would also imagine this has been exacerbated over time. Bigger, mature trees in Central Park with likely continued pruning and building in the built areas. 

Anyone in the area knows that the trees in Riverside Park are becoming a serious problem - huge trees and branches fall with no provocation.

My own pic...

IMG_6111.thumb.jpg.e298ebdfc73fc93cd0723e52b6504b1e.jpg

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