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July 2022


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Today makes 5 out of 6 Saturdays during the 2020s with measurable rain on the Memorial Day and July 4 weekends.

5-23-20….rain

7-4-20……no rain

5-29-21…..rain

7-3-21……rain 

5-28-22….rain

7-2-22……rain

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52 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

meanwhile ewr just hit 95

Temp and humidity had a mini spike last hr or so here. 94 dew 72. Micronets nearby did the same thing. It's sunny, but it's been sunny for a while anyway so curious as to why, or maybe no particular reason at all.

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Some additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible as a cold front moves across the region this evening. In the wake of the cold frontal passage, it will be somewhat cooler and less humid for several days. The first 10 days of July could see near normal readings overall in the Northeast. However, the month will likely wind up somewhat warmer than normal.

During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +8.37

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.329 today.

On June 30 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.436 (RMM). The June 29-adjusted amplitude was 1.483 (RMM).

 

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It’s been storm after storm running just offshore of the south shore heading east. And they even intensify over the ocean. Pretty much the opposite of what you usually see. Meanwhile we can buy rain from western Long Island west

1 mile west and 2 miles east of my house got about a half inch more than my house today

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Hopefully, some of this blocking can carryover to next winter. We really could have used it last winter with the progressive storm tracks. So it continues to look like July 1st will be the hottest day for a while. 
 

DC293E6A-4DEA-4A0D-B34B-FAFEAEB56553.thumb.png.85eb72e070bd4b43d9e15b4bf9b2e0e1.png

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BEF98654-06C4-4859-AA16-F1EFD66AFE2A.thumb.png.a9ae1587d828981b5b6b4e0095a253ee.png

 

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Morning thoughts…

Clouds will yield to abundant sunshine. It will be warm. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 85°

Newark: 91°

Philadelphia: 89°

Tomorrow will be fair and pleasantly warm.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 84.1°; 15-Year: 84.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 86.4°; 15-Year: 87.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.4°; 15-Year: 88.0°

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The next 8 days are averaging  77degs.(69/86} or +1.

Reached 89 here late yesterday.

Today:   82-86, wind nw, cloudy then improving, 67 tomorrow AM.

90's should start again by the 12th.

Be happy it ain't this:

1656806400-01WpiAEa9NA.png

77*(76%RH) here at 7am.      79* at 9am.      80* at 10am.      82* at 12:30pm---but down to 77* at 1:30pm.       80* at 4pm.       82* at 4:30pm.

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On 7/1/2022 at 6:02 PM, bluewave said:

We don’t rally have any analogs for so much water vapor injected into the stratosphere. 


https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL099381

 

Following the 15 January 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption, several trace gases measured by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) displayed anomalous stratospheric values. Trajectories and radiance simulations confirm that the H2O, SO2, and HCl enhancements were injected by the eruption. In comparison with those from previous eruptions, the SO2 and HCl mass injections were unexceptional, although they reached higher altitudes. In contrast, the H2O injection was unprecedented in both magnitude (far exceeding any previous values in the 17-year MLS record) and altitude (penetrating into the mesosphere). We estimate the mass of H2O injected into the stratosphere to be 146 ± 5 Tg, or ∼10% of the stratospheric burden. It may take several years for the H2O plume to dissipate. This eruption could impact climate not through surface cooling due to sulfate aerosols, but rather through surface warming due to the radiative forcing from the excess stratospheric H2O.

Key Points

 

  • Following the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption, the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder measured enhancements of stratospheric H2O, SO2, and HCl

  • The mass of SO2 and HCl injected is comparable to that from prior eruptions, whereas the magnitude of the H2O injection is unprecedented

  • Excess stratospheric H2O will persist for years, could affect stratospheric chemistry and dynamics, and may lead to surface warming


The violent Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption on 15 January 2022 not only injected ash into the stratosphere but also large amounts of water vapor, breaking all records for direct injection of water vapor, by a volcano or otherwise, in the satellite era. This is not surprising since the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai caldera was formerly situated 150 m below sea level. The massive blast injected water vapor up to altitudes as high as 53 km. Using measurements from the Microwave Limb Sounder on NASA's Aura satellite, we estimate that the excess water vapor is equivalent to around 10% of the amount of water vapor typically residing in the stratosphere. Unlike previous strong eruptions, this event may not cool the surface, but rather it could potentially warm the surface due to the excess water vapor.

Very interesting stuff. Looks like the +QBO is starting to take shape. Going to have to see what effect the volcanoes, +QBO, increasing solar and La Niña will have on the stratosphere going into winter. 

 

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Very interesting stuff. Looks like the +QBO is starting to take shape. Going to have to see what effect the volcanoes, +QBO, increasing solar and La Niña will have on the stratosphere going into winter. 

At least for our local region, the persistent La Niña background state since the super El Niño Has been taking a break during the first half of the summer. The blocking pattern has been weakening the warm pool to our east. So the record SSTs off the East Coast have cooled while the Canadian Maritimes have warmed. The  SE Ridge or WAR pattern has been on hiatus since late May when we had the record heat on May 31st. 

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