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Early guess from this eruption is that the record injection of water vapor into the stratosphere could cause a surface warming effect.


https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL099381

In summary, MLS measurements indicate that an exceptional amount of H2O was injected directly into the stratosphere by the HT-HH eruption. We estimate that the magnitude of the injection constituted at least 10% of the total stratospheric H2O burden. On the day of the eruption, the H2O plume reached ∼53 km altitude. The H2O injection bypassed the cold point tropopause, disrupted the H2O tape recorder signal, set a new record for H2O injection height in the 17-year MLS record, and could alter stratospheric chemistry and dynamics as the long-lived H2O plume propagates through the stratosphere in the BDC. Unlike previous strong eruptions in the satellite era, HT-HH could impact climate not through surface cooling due to sulfate aerosols, but rather through surface warming due to the excess stratospheric H2O forcing. Given the potential high-impact consequences of the HT-HH H2O injection, it is critical to continue monitoring volcanic gases from this eruption and future ones to better quantify their varying roles in climate.

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The eruption occurred back in January, there is a lag effect of several months. That said, a tropical volcanic eruption of such an extreme magnitude that pumps up into the stratosphere is definitely going to have a major effect on the weather. The amount of water vapor, ash and sulfate aerosols it released into the stratosphere was enormous. The exact specific effects it will have are unknown yet, however, it will definitely have a very notable effect on the stratosphere/weather of some sort 

HTHH only released about 400,000 tons of sulphur, most of what would’ve normally been released into the atmosphere leached and reacted into the ocean instead. 
 

Pinatubo released 19 million tons. 
 

The influence of volcanic ash and water vapor having an effect? Definitely. But the sulphur load was not high enough for a direct climate effect, or at least not one that’s easily measurable. 
 

Here’s a paper on it showing Pinatubo at 17Mt, but figures vary across sources. I’ve seen estimates up to 20Mt for Pinatubo. 
 

https://pubs.usgs.gov/pinatubo/self/

Note that it lists the volume of the eruption at 5km^3 which is a DRE value (dense rock equivalent), to get the more usually given tephra value it’s multiplied by 2.5 which produces a small VEI 6 eruption (which of course is a very large event overall, just on the lowest end of the 6 scale). 
 

Edit: See here as well

 

https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/natural-disasters/amp/sulphur-dioxide-from-caribbean-volcano-reaches-india-wmo-confirms-76547

The VEI 4 2021 eruption of Soufriere in the Caribbean released about 600,000 tons of SO2, which is more than HTHH. VEI 4’s do not typically cool the climate, that begins more at the high end of VEI 5 with commensurately high sulphur releases, which for several reasons HTHH lacked. 
 

All of this is not to say HTHH isn’t currently affecting the climate; it almost certainly is. This one’s just complicated, and I’m very curious to read a retrospective analysis in a year or two. 

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

There's a good chance we'll see 100+ readings this month. The dry weather and soils will be a huge help to push temperatures over the edge. 

Ensembles aren't are ridge happy as OP runs yet though 

the eps roasts us after day 10 ish

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1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

HTHH only released about 400,000 tons of sulphur, most of what would’ve normally been released into the atmosphere leached and reacted into the ocean instead. 
 

Pinatubo released 19 million tons. 
 

The influence of volcanic ash and water vapor having an effect? Definitely. But the sulphur load was not high enough for a direct climate effect, or at least not one that’s easily measurable. 
 

Here’s a paper on it showing Pinatubo at 17Mt, but figures vary across sources. I’ve seen estimates up to 20Mt for Pinatubo. 
 

https://pubs.usgs.gov/pinatubo/self/

Note that it lists the volume of the eruption at 5km^3 which is a DRE value (dense rock equivalent), to get the more usually given tephra value it’s multiplied by 2.5 which produces a small VEI 6 eruption (which of course is a very large event overall, just on the lowest end of the 6 scale). 
 

Edit: See here as well

 

https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/natural-disasters/amp/sulphur-dioxide-from-caribbean-volcano-reaches-india-wmo-confirms-76547

The VEI 4 2021 eruption of Soufriere in the Caribbean released about 600,000 tons of SO2, which is more than HTHH. VEI 4’s do not typically cool the climate, that begins more at the high end of VEI 5 with commensurately high sulphur releases, which for several reasons HTHH lacked. 
 

All of this is not to say HTHH isn’t currently affecting the climate; it almost certainly is. This one’s just complicated, and I’m very curious to read a retrospective analysis in a year or two. 

Good post. I think the big unknown is the effects of the record amount of water vapor it ejected into the stratosphere like you had mentioned

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7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

68 degrees here in the Poconos

It is so quiet up here

 

Wife and I rented a cabin for the week 

 

I'm going to the Poconos again next month  lol. Might as well buy a cabin lol

I’ll sell you mine lol

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Unsettled weather could persist through Saturday. Scattered showers and thundershowers will be possible, along with cooler temperatures. However, much of the time, there will be no precipitation.

In the Southwest, a significant heatwave is poised to develop. From tomorrow into the middle of next week, Phoenix will likely see numerous 110° or above temperatures and several minimum temperatures of 90° or above.

The first 10 days of July could see near normal readings overall in the Northeast. A brief surge of heat could follow afterward. Overall, the month will likely wind up somewhat warmer than normal. The newest EPS weeklies suggest that a sustained period of above normal temperatures could develop after mid-July.

During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +4.99.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.013 today.

On July 5 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.589 (RMM). The July 4-adjusted amplitude was 1.647 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.2° (0.7° above normal).

 

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6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs is hot and dry ala July 99

That would take us to full on drought territory until we start looking to the tropics later in the summer. With the pattern extremes we have seen recently it was only a matter of time before we see a real summer drought. 

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2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That would take us to full on drought territory until we start looking to the tropics later in the summer. With the pattern extremes we have seen recently it was only a matter of time before we see a real summer drought. 

when is the gfs ever right....

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The next 8 days are averaging  80degs.(70/89) or about +2.

Reached 84 here yesterday.

Today: 80-85, wind variable, clouding up, 70 tomorrow morning.

Basically 90-100 with little precipitation through the 22nd.--- starting the 12th.(GFS).

71*(87%RH) here at 7am.         75* at Noon.      Reached 78* at 3pm.        72* at 10pm.

 

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Morning thoughts…

It will be partly to mostly cloudy and warm. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 83°

Newark: 89°

Philadelphia: 87°

Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy and cool.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 84.8°; 15-Year: 85.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 87.0°; 15-Year: 87.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.9°; 15-Year: 88.7°

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73/67 here.  Partly sunny now but plenty of clouds around.  Should we get into longer breaks of sunshine we should see plenty of mid/upper 80s and some of the hotter spots get to 90.  Euro was the first with the weekend being mixed- Saturday cloudy and scattered storms, more widespread rains look mainlys south of the NYC/NJ metro areas into the southern half of NJ.  Should dry out later Saturday and give way to a very nice Sunday.  Sunny , dry and exceptional.  

Rockies ridge shoots a piece of the furnace east Mon (7/11) - Wed (7/13).  Temperatures at >18c (850) by Tuesday could push mid / upper 90s into the area and hot spots 98/99.  Likely see more showers/storms later Wed (7/13) and Thu (7/14).

 

Longer range - Rockies ridge anchored through the middle of the month - W/ ATlt Ridge may push west and allow for more sustained ridging and heat later in July.

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4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

What are rain chances tomorrow morning looking like?

The models are showing most of the rain missing us to the south tomorrow. It looks like an event for southern NJ. We do have the chance of isolated t-storms this afternoon and evening. I'm hoping for a downpour, but it's only a slight chance. Super dry here. The grass is burning out now. Really need rain, but not much in sight unfortunately.

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Thread on potential heavy rain event mid to late next week for portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast.  The heavy rain threat would exist in any case due to a slow-moving, deepening eastern US trough.  However, the heavy rain risk could be amplified due to interaction between the trough and a slow-moving system forming near the central Gulf coast by Mon, which could be slingshotted NE and become a hybrid system.

 

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1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

We havent been in a drought situation in a while…if that is where this is headed.

1995, right?

 

 

Parts of NJ were added to the lowest level of D0 this week. That mostly means browning lawns. The last time we made it to level 2 was back in 2016. So most of the time we end up getting a deluge after a few months of drier conditions. NYC hasn’t had a level 3 drought since 2002. That  was the last time there were water restrictions put  in place. So our dry patterns haven’t been able to make it to a level 3 or 4 since the wetter regime began in 2003. The most serious droughts of the last 20 years have mostly been restricted to the West into the Plains. 
 

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/TimeSeries.aspx

545D155D-24B7-4CFE-91ED-CD70264E110C.thumb.png.ac03a8f815bdcb43e78dbf00f7073ea8.png

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7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Parts of NJ were added to the lowest level of D0 this week. That mostly means browning lawns. The last time we made it to level 2 was back in 2016. So most of the time we end up getting a deluge after a few months of drier conditions. NYC hasn’t had a level 3 drought since 2002. That  was the last time there were water restrictions put  in place. So our dry patterns haven’t been able to make it to a level 3 or 4 since the wetter regime began in 2003. The most serious droughts of the last 20 years have mostly been restricted to the West into the Plains. 
 

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/TimeSeries.aspx

545D155D-24B7-4CFE-91ED-CD70264E110C.thumb.png.ac03a8f815bdcb43e78dbf00f7073ea8.png

good post and I checked NJ

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16 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Believe it or not, showers you see that just popped ups central and southern Sussex County NJ...missed our home by 5 miles but .36" in a few minutes in Frankford NJ near the Sheriffs Department. 

Yeah I thought about you when I saw those downpours on radar in northwest NJ. Frustrating when a downpour misses by just a few miles.

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