July 2022

[wthrmn654]

Despite the frontal passage, the warm and humid air mass remains in
place as heights climb and ridging builds Friday into the weekend.
Guidance has 850mb temps in the low 20s(C) by Sunday, which would
translate to surface Ts in the upper 90s if it were to verify. In
fact, 13z NBM probs have a 20% chance of Central Park hitting 100F
on Sunday. While this is unlikely, it does indicate a possibility of
an even hotter air mass over the weekend

[SnowGoose69]

NYC actually did not hit 90 til about 455pm

[uncle W]

the summer is behaving like the winter by starting slowly but picking up speed mid January as the summer started out slowly and is hot now...if the trend continues August wont be as hot like February wasn't as cold...one can only hope...

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, uncle W said:

the summer is behaving like the winter by starting slowly but picking up speed mid January as the summer started out slowly and is hot now...if the trend continues August wont be as hot like February wasn't as cold...one can only hope...

The cold January this year was the one outlier from our new climo since 2010. December was the warmest departure month of winter as usual. The record heat at the end of May matched the typical highest departure month of spring. The slow start to summer in June for most was right on also. Now the expected big July warm up right on cue. The August departure should be higher than June was. Then our classic endless summer pattern in September. 

 

The monthly temperature increases from 81-10 to 91-20 

……….EWR…..ISP

Dec…+1.5….+1.5

Jan….+1.2…+1.3

Feb….+0.5….+0.5

 

Mar….+0.4….+0.6

Apr….+0.5…..+0.6

May...+0.6….+0.9

 

Jun….+0.3….+0.6

Jul…..+1.4…..+1.1

Aug...+0.6….+0.9

 

Sep….+1.0….+1.3

Oct…..+0.9..+1.4

Nov….+0.2..+0.5

[Intensewind002]

Managed to hit 90 now that the wind shifted to westerly, first 90 here since I hit 94 on May 31st

[Rjay]

Fox hit 91.   Lol NYC. 

[dmillz25]

Back in NYC and it’s definitely hotter than what it was in DR

[Rjay]

West winds shot the temp up to 92 at FRG

[uncle W]

43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The cold January this year was the one outlier from our new climo since 2010. December was the warmest departure month of winter as usual. The record heat at the end of May matched the typical highest departure month of spring. The slow start to summer in June for most was right on also. Now the expected big July warm up right on cue. The August departure should be higher than June was. Then our classic endless summer pattern in September. 

 

The monthly temperature increases from 81-10 to 91-20 

……….EWR…..ISP

Dec…+1.5….+1.5

Jan….+1.2…+1.3

Feb….+0.5….+0.5

 

Mar….+0.4….+0.6

Apr….+0.5…..+0.6

May...+0.6….+0.9

 

Jun….+0.3….+0.6

Jul…..+1.4…..+1.1

Aug...+0.6….+0.9

 

Sep….+1.0….+1.3

Oct…..+0.9..+1.4

Nov….+0.2..+0.5

that doesn't include the lack of thunder storms until recently and snowfall that was basicly in January only...

[Cfa]

Topped out at 93. Low was 71.

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

the summer is behaving like the winter by starting slowly but picking up speed mid January as the summer started out slowly and is hot now...if the trend continues August wont be as hot like February wasn't as cold...one can only hope...

I haven't looked into it but I think that was a regional thing rather than a larger scale setup. It would be interesting to see if there's a similar delay in the seasonal changes elsewhere. 

[nycwinter]

3 hours ago, forkyfork said:

we hit 90 in october three years ago

i don't mid if it 90 as long as dewpoints are in the 50's like it will be on friday...

[nycwinter]

was not as bad as i expected today as dewpoints were in the lower 60's today..

[Rtd208]

High for the day was 94 here.

Current temp 91/DP 68/RH 48%

[uofmiami]

90.6 & 89.7 in Muttontown & Syosset respectively for the highs.

[psv88]

93 earlier, 87 now 

[donsutherland1]

The longest heatwave so far this summer is developing. The hottest temperatures will likely be west of New York City in adjacent New Jersey where temperatures could peak in the upper 90s and perhaps reach or exceed 100° at the height of the heatwave.

During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The latest guidance all indicates that July will wind up solidly among the warmer than normal cases.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around July 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.60°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was -0.43. The SOI was negative for the third consecutive day. The last time that happened was February 13-16, 2022 when the SOI was negative for four consecutive days.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.621 today.

On July 17 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.734 (RMM). The July 16-adjusted amplitude was 0.960 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.8° (2.3° above normal).

 

[psv88]

Disgusting outside right now. No breeze. 

[SACRUS]

7/19

BLM: 95
EWR: 94
JFK: 94
ACY: 94
PHL: 93
LGA: 93
New Brnswck: 93
ISP: 92
TEB: 92
TTN: 92
NYC: 90

[tdp146]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

West winds shot the temp up to 92 at FRG

Yeah. Just noticed that my high for the day of 91.8 wasn’t until 6:40. 

[hudsonvalley21]

90 was the high here. Currently 82/70

[doncat]

94/72 split today...currently 86°.

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

7/19

BLM: 95
EWR: 94
JFK: 94
ACY: 94
PHL: 93
LGA: 93
New Brnswck: 93
ISP: 92
TEB: 92
TTN: 92
NYC: 90

i guess ewr doesn't have a sensor issue after all

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

i guess ewr doesn't have a sensor issue after all

Only 1 station on that list has an issue.  

[forkyfork]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Only 1 station on that list has an issue.  

it rained tho

[Rjay]

Toasty out there tn.  

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly sunny and hot. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 93°

Newark: 100°

Philadelphia: 97°

Hot weather will continue through at least the weekend.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 85.3°; 15-Year: 86.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 87.2°; 15-Year: 88.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.0°; 15-Year: 89.1°

[bluewave]

The HRRR and Euro both have 100° potential today around Newark which has been so dry this month.
 

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  86degs.(76/96) or +8.

Month to date is  78.3[+0.9].       Should be  80.6[+3.0] by the 28th.

Reached 96 here yesterday.

Today:  94-99, wind w. to sw. and breezy, few clouds, 80 tomorrow AM.

90 in Newark by 10am!     I still have 82 in  CI:

Past 6 Hours Observations for EWR

MOST RECENT DATA: 10am edt   20-JUL-22
NEWARK INTL ARPT, NJ (   30')                        LAT=40.70N LON= 74.17W   
STA     TMP DP RH  WD WS  G PRS  ALT PCPN     CLOUD LEVELS HGT TYP   VIS  WX
EWR  5am 78 65 63 250  7    080 2977               130 SCT 250 SCT    10
     6am 76 65 68 230  6    083 2978               120 SCT 250 SCT    10
     7am 78 66 66 230  6    087 2979               130 SCT 250 SCT    10
     8am 82 66 57 230  5    089 2980               200 SCT 250 SCT    10
     9am 86 67 52 270  5    090 2980               200 SCT 250 SCT    10
    10am 90 66 44 000  0    086 2979        45 SCT 200 SCT 250 SCT    10
EWR    6 temps: high=  90 at 10am low=  76 at  6am mean=  81.6   precip=  0.00

  11am 93 67 41 000  3    085 2978                       200 SCT    10
  12pm 94 68 42 000  0    082 2977                        50 SCT    10
EWR    6 temps: high=  94 at 12pm low=  78 at  7am mean=  87.1   precip=  0.00

1pm 98 65 33 260 11    076 2976                60 SCT  HI ???    10
EWR    6 temps: high=  98 at  1pm low=  82 at  8am mean=  90.5   precip=  0.00

   1354 99 65 32 240 13        2974        65 SCT 110 SCT  HI ???    10
     2pm 98 64 32           070 2974        65 SCT 110 SCT  HI ???    10
EWR    6 temps: high=  99 at 1354 low=  86 at  9am mean=  93.1   precip=  0.00

 

  4pm 96 64 34 070  4    060 2971        75 SCT 100 SCT 130eSCT    10
     5pm 97 63 32 220  9    055 2969        70 SCT  95 SCT  HI ???    10
EWR    6 temps: high=  99 at 1354 low=  94 at 12pm mean=  96.6   precip=  0.00    Ne
wark's 100 Apparently Stymied Today!

78*(72%RH) here at 7am.     80* at 8am.      82*(70%RH) at 9am.       85*(60%RH) at Noon.       88*(55%RH) at 1pm.      89* at 1:30pm.     86*(62%RH) at 2pm.         85*(65%RH) at 3pm.         Basically 87* after 3pm.      87* at 9pm.

[Rjay]

After a low of 73.  Up to 82 currently.