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July 2022 Disco/obs/etc


Torch Tiger
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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Where did you go? Highly unusual clouds yesterday . Did you experience the instant sea breeze wind switch. That was cool.

We were at Second in Middletown.  We did feel the wind change suddenly and the clouds kinda messed up the day.  I was watching sat and radar thinking it might even rain.   Cleared out decently as we were leaving to drive through Newport (our daughter had a friend who had never been there)

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49 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

DIT installing additional units!

His install team is already working on it. 

End of July Special for members of American Weather -10% off all AC units and free top-notch installation by a team of pros. Be sure to type in Tolland in the offer section to receive the offer!

See the source image

 

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59 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

We were at Second in Middletown.  We did feel the wind change suddenly and the clouds kinda messed up the day.  I was watching sat and radar thinking it might even rain.   Cleared out decently as we were leaving to drive through Newport (our daughter had a friend who had never been there)

Sunny all morning until that wind shift but still warm. Very sunny late afternoon 

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Never forget 

image.png

Not that there is any argument ... but, that was same GFS version that also tried so hard to sell 39/31, while 3+" of liquid would fall in a nor'easter earlier that March.  The rain worked out, but the temperature's were 32.1/32.1 just were all winter ptype lovers 'wanted' it, but most importantly... what should happen when it's raining so hard we're under water..

The twp ends of that may seem unrelatable ..and seeing as virtually no one knows about model tooling... other than .0000000001% of humanity, it certainly is inCREdibly germane, too Lol.   No, but that March, and then the latter July modeling fun above, they were both indicative of the same glaring issue in that particular version. 

It was really bad with lower tropospheric thermodynamics.  So bad in fact it was as though the modelers left out a subroutine somewhere. Jesus, and left the lower levels unresolved right through beta and into production.   Whatever the reason, it hugely effected the model's performance in multi-faceted f-up ways.  It was embarrassing. 

It may sound kind of corny but ... the 2018 version of the GFS vs this version running now, a 110 F lala range number is still going to be more believable now. 

How much so... about 25%  ...hahaha.  Like, 2018 = 0% clue.   2022 = 25% ...and yes, that's intuitively even generous buuuut...  We live in the era of synergistic heat waves, and as we've both and all have observed, we have not experienced one of those in the OV/NE/and upper MA region(s).  And they gotta start somewhere...

But rest assured... that still leaves 75% in this proof of concept missive that it won't do that.  There are other moving aspects...   I agree with the higher confidence for a warmer than normal period...  I'm not seeing any issue with WPC's 80 to 90th %tile for doing so, as per their last risk assessment.   Seeing as that is the case, and the synergy shit's still out there...  heh.  If we wind up with substantially more than 94/71, I'm not going surprised. 

Just trying to be open minded, but doing so based on reasons.

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Just feel like all guidance has been overdoing the heat past d5. I think it’s a signal for heat, but it’s usually a safe bet to slice and dice the numbers. I wouldn’t mind a July 1911 stretch although my chickens would struggle. 

Might be tolerable if dews remained modest as in that mega-torch.

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19 minutes ago, amarshall said:

The water couldn't be any colder on the south shore. SW winds flip the water and we get 59 degree ice bath . 

Recent article I saw on it from Matt Noyes.

If you want warm water come to the sound. Water temps have been around 80 for the last 2 weeks here. 

 

https://www.nbcboston.com/weather/stories-weather/why-is-the-ocean-water-so-cold-near-the-north-shore-this-summer/2776675/

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1 hour ago, SouthCoastMA said:

SST's are 80 along the latitude of Atlantic City. Of course, you'd need a tropical system to begin with and the perfect set up, but that doesn't scream weakening until late in the game. 

It also depends how deep the warm layer is...If it's 80F through 200' of depth that's a lot better for maintaining TC strength than if it's, say, only 40-50' deep. Although since systems are usually trucking along at MA/SNE latitudes I don't really know if upwelling would still able to affect the storm as it passed.

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Ds' 8.5 thru 10 on this GEFs mean ( 12z ) may not get us into the tallest heat ( or edges...), but it sure looks like a textbook MCS streamlining.    Static WNW 500 mb flow with SW flow riding up underneath coming right out of that heat dome.   

It's been quite a while since we had an MCS ...and I don't count that weird wind bomb thing last October or the year before -whenever that was.  

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1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

 Not sure where they are measuring but supposedly coastal waters near Newport RI are at 72F today

But That's south coast not south shore. I'm wondering why SW winds would create cold water on the south shore, it's an offshore breeze

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13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro too again 

It's so far out in time that these bodily shifts west and east with the ridge nodal axis has to be acceptable, too.  This rendition builds it over Iowa, but like you noticed, still 850mb +22Cs skirt over SNE. 

Until the telecon stops concertedly correcting the PNA from +1.5 SD all the way down to .-5 SD ( total of 2 SD!) between D's 6 and 12, I'm gonna go ahead and assume that we're still in the game for major heat departures.   These models sometimes do this ... They might sniff out an early long lead risk idea, then it seems it's a week of invention trying to come up with any plausible excuse not to succeed the original risk idea... Only to bring it back once they've run the gambit of failed offsets.  It's more noticeable in big winter storms.. We'll see, but the telecons say not to let guard down   

"Still in the game" is not forecast, mind us... Just that the NAO is also rising, which is a better marker for lifting the westerlies in latitude over the EC ..so mixing PNA mode change up together tells me that these recent runs are both suspect.  That and that 9 days out thing - LOL  

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